To think good school places will be even harder to find next year because of the VAT on school fees

[Nesca1]

We are are looking at secondary schools for DS. We have our eye on a decent school bang in the middle of a solid middle class area . The school is always over subscribed; this year we would have gotten a place but last year we would have missed out because of how far we are from the school.
Usually, the school offers places to children living 1600m away, last year it was 1400m due to a large number of sibling applications.

Due to the whole VAT issue, i think more parents from the local area are going to be sending their kids to this school, rather than sending them to private schools.

Is this a reasonable assumption? I don't think parents will wait for the policy to be enacted, but they will move their year 6 children into this school.

I won't name it on here but this happens at my DC's school when they are a teacher short. It's often a subject like maths (which is less about discussion) and it tends to be the two top sets (so potentially the students that might be expected to need less help/be better at working independently). Just one example of the school doing the best it can with scant resources. They prioritise exam years and year 7. DS spent over a term doing this for 2 subjects in Year 8, for example. Arguably it's better than a series of supply teachers, or expecting the class to work independently.

That’s the point. They don’t “have” to pay the VAT. Many won’t be able to afford to. People who were planning to remain in private are switching to state - the whole point of this thread.

I've really enjoyed reading and catching up with everyone's thoughts. But I think my main takeaway is that everyone's thoughts are based on their own experiences.

Our state schools have far better discipline than the private. The private here is known for having problems with drugs and general discipline. Parents apply pressure to school as to whether "Little Cordelia" did X, Y or Z to get a detention and it's inevitably cancelled so Cordelia then thinks she's the dogs bollocks and the situation spirals.

Contrast with the local state school where discipline (with parents support) sounds like a military camp. Warnings, isolations and a solid learning environment with counsellors on hand for those sent to isolation to talk it out before their classwork is emailed to them to complete in supervised isolation.

I am the only person in my friendship circle not to send their kids to private. No one I know will be impacted by the VAT increase.

And I think the privates do tutor for senior entry. My friends child (Year 3) is already doing VR / Non VR / 11+ testing in school. And her parents are also paying for tutors despite paying whatever per year for private. Tutors isn't about intelligence, it's about technique.

@Didimum then they're not really private, are they, if partly funded by the government?

Private schools where I am in Luxembourg are between €10-€24k

Or perhaps they didn’t want to send their child to a school with dire educational outcomes and where behaviour problems or violence is a daily problem. Sending a child to that kind of school will turn their lives upside down far more than moving a few miles up the road.

€18-€24k

They won't be able to switch to an oversubscribed one unless they already live in the catchment which most won't.

Were you supportive of the war in Iraq?
Personally I think that was worse than VAT on schools.

Many will (and have already) move. I know people who’ve decided to rent in catchment. Others have conveniently started going to church to bump them up the criteria for oversubscribed, good, church schools. Others are sitting entrance exams where some places are allocated based on entrance exam performance, or musical ability.

Well, maybe. But such schools are few and far between, contrary to what many private school parents would have us believe.

A lot of parents are just horrified at the idea of ordinary comprehensive schools.

But the point is that we will move. I'm obviously not going to remove my children from their private schools and send them to the local comp that I am currently paying thousands to avoid! I will move into the catchment of the very lovely outstanding comp.

That’s because some of us have personal experience of some of those schools. Many have switched from state to private because of their experience. A local “good” primary school have apparently had to call the police due to violent behaviour. These schools really aren’t few and far between. Teachers are leaving in droves because of conditions they are expected to work in. As I’ve said before, we need to improve the state sector so that all schools are great.

Where I live the houses in the catchment of the best schools are generally nowhere near as nice as the ones in the areas where children go to private school. I can't see them all downsizing to avoid VAT. I doubt there will be much impact overall especially with the drop in school age children anyway.

It was simply an example of how the private system operates elsewhere.

Of the ones already switching allegedly ‘because of the threat of VAT’, how many have actually decided to switch because (a) that the cost of living has risen significantly and resulted in far less disposable income, and / or (b) the enormous outlay for private education is no longer value for money, especially since universities have increased widening participation schemes to encourage state school applicants?

It’s not as if this is anything new - report from The Times in May 2009:

Private schools hit by recession as parents look to the state sector

Private schools are closing or merging at a rate of one a week as increasing numbers of parents take their children out of fee-paying education because of the recession.

https://archive.ph/YqmMe

That's only an option if your children are still in year 5 or below at primary and you're happy with the state primary or willing to keep paying private until they get there. If you're moving children into the state system during secondary you can't buy a place by buying a house - you will have to take whatever place is available at the time, which is unlikely to be the really desirable one.

I work in the sector. The private schools round here are typically planning to absorb 10% of the cost and passing 10% on to parents.

" I think my main takeaway is that everyone's thoughts are based on their own experiences."

absolutely right. Even the IFS paper which is being hawked around as supporting this policy is adamant that nobody can predict the effects at local level.

What is clear is this: the local effects will be determined in the short term by the choices of private schools and their families, and in the medium/longer term by those that "might have chosen" that private school but decided not to, or decide to settle somewhere else in the first place. Those choices will be determined again by, as posters have mentioned, whether the local state school is actually OK (or isn't) and has space (or doesn't).

There's huge variation in quality across state schools. Anyone whose assessment of this policy is based on personal experience of this or that school....is missing the point.

And like everything in economics the effects will be felt at the margin: it's not a question of the (say) 85-95% that will keep paying the fees, but the 5-15% that won't. For many private schools, 5% will force them either into a radical restructure or closure.

Can someone explain the political consequences in Scotland and then in Parliament to me please? If 25% of Edinburgh school places are private schools and they have no “EHCP” system so no get out. Are the Scottish likely to get out of this VAT policy somehow? And if not, how will this then impact the Labour Party and overall seats? We already discussed the isssues with uni places in Scotland and private school kids not getting on certain courses there.

Where I live in SW London the houses in the catchments for the best houses are generally considerably more expensive than the houses in the catchments for the poorer performing schools. We will have to buy a much smaller property.

I already said upthread that I will keep mine in private until natural exit points but we will move house at the right time so that they can get into the really good comps.

Private school parents will have to decide what they value most and what they are prepared to do without.

Some parents are happy to pour cash into luxurious money-pit schools - tiny class sizes, gorgeous facilities like lovely sports grounds and darkrooms and theaters and all that kind of stuff.

Others feel their child really can't cope with big classes, but might be OK with a private school which skimped on facilities while ensuring smaller classes.

Some parents choose private purely to escape a really awful state school with terrible behavior problems. A frugal private school - 30-plus kids in a class and facilities that are really no better than a decentish state school, BUT by its nature excluding "difficult" kids and families and thus having an orderly environment where kids can learn - might be fine for this group, and they may be prepared to pay if the price is affordable.

Private schools will need to decide where their market lies and choose accordingly.

Doesn't make much difference anymore; admissions policies have changed.

I agree that 11+ tutoring is, frankly, a bloody awful childhood robbing experience. I am not talking about a bit of preparation for an exam, I'm talking about a whole year or more of weekly maths, creative writing etc plus homework.

At this age, in my opinion, tutoring should be the last option to help children who are struggling in school.

The thought of tutoring my DCs for the 11+ - for state or private - does not sit well with me. All those hours sitting at a desk, all that stress when they should be enjoying their childhoods and using this time to try different things or get better at the things they love. So, I won't be doing it. As a wise person once said to me 'the GCSEs they sit are the same, they are no better in a Grammar school than in a Comp, and quite often the same is true of the teachers'.

But... we have to accept not everyone thinks like this and even if they do not everyone has a large choice of good or great accessible comps to choose from. Selective states are going to become the domain of the middle classes and house prices are going to shoot up in the catchment of outstanding top comps.

One unintended consequence could well me that top privates suffer in the future, as getting your child into a top state may suddenly have more cache than getting into a top private. It won't do anything to raise the attainment of everyone else in the state sector. It will just turn a handful of state schools into schools of the wealthy (with the a few state pupils who will be of similar wealth to the talented bursary student).

FWIW, I live overseas and, because I wanted bilingual education, pay for an affordable private school that falls into the third category. It can be done. Tradeoffs have to be accepted, though.

A bit of frugality and careful thinking about, what do the kids really need, what do parents really value enough to pay for, might not be a bad thing.