To think it's not a foregone conclusion that Labour will win the next election?

[flashbac]

I am seeing things here and there predicting Keir Starmer being our next prime minister etc, as if its already been decided.

I won't be voting for them under Keir that's for sure. Their stance on Gaza is the straw that broke the camel's back. I don't care if the Tories get in again. I am so disenfranchised I dont give a shit and at least with the Tories its "better the devil you know" and not Labour pretending they give a shit about people/human rights.

The same issues won’t go away even if everyone has bought into ‘distraction’ or whatever phrase atm

The world will be struggling with it and even the die hard there’s no problem will see what’s going on - or maybe not 🤔

These issues are very unlikely to be resolved by one country alone. And that is something that the Conservatives can't really admit given their "take back control" stance. If you want to change the law on asylum, it's a multinational solution. Its multilateral. Legally and politically. All this red meat domestically isn't bringing in a new vote for the Conservatives, it's certainly not changing the polls and it's not damaging Labour. A party needs to win domestically, and in the UK at least, a really extreme political party has never got first past the post. In Europe, you actually need a party to outright not believe in democracy to win; coalitions can't be built on a far right ticket.

If the Conservatives were surging in the polls and giving Labour a hard time you might say migration is something a majority of voters care about. But it's clear that in the UK, this issue has peaked. People care more about other things like the economy and schools.

In the Netherlands, assuming Wilders gets a coalition, he will face the same issue. His support is really about the poverty that some feel. He will have to address it to maintain a government.

It is possible within the law as it currently stands. Aus did it. Neither party will reverse that even with Labor in. Lucky lot getting through this blind spot with the electorate.

International law changing is of course something else I’ve mentioned a fair few times. Post war set up won’t cope.

That’s still removed from the lack of any ability to discuss it beyond ‘it’s a distraction’ or ‘culture wars’ - how ridiculous given what we are facing, that’s the media for you.

If people pick up the world news it’s probably a good idea. The BBC and Guardian will take a lot to shift from current position, so go to world political and societal events and why it’s happening,

But it's clear that in the UK, this issue has peaked

This will not age well. I’m really surprised people believe it given the general direction of migration figures.

I would say that things look good for them but you can't be at all sure so far ahead. Too much can happen.

But any party that is in for a long time is at something of a disadvantage, and the Tories haven't covered themselves with glory.

OTOH sometimes it seems like Labour are trying not to be elected!

Migration as an issue is something that will, in the UK, have reached a peak. No one can ever guarantee the future, but because elections are an effective reset, for this government, they have run out of road.

There are many ways to deal with migration. It's simply that this government will not do them, and probably those alternatives will be done across the board by Labour. The Conservatives has lied on this issue to their core who don't want it but their donors do. They have been too craven to make the case for something they like. If you have had 13 years of an increasing figure, it's really because you don't want to make those changes, not because you can't. Motivation is key.

There will be right wing peaks everywhere in Europe. We are just finishing ours. But for Europe, given our geography, and proximity, it's multilateral politics, ie international agreements that can change things. Unless a country is prepared to break it's international obligations then no change.

But anyway, the polls show Labour maintains a good lead with an imploding Conservative Party. And my money is on that. I put my money on the Conservatives in the last three elections. I am always prepared to lose it, but I haven't yet.

There are many ways to deal with migration. It's simply that this government will not do them, and probably those alternatives will be done across the board by Labour.

Such as?

Pretty easy stuff. Make a long list of migration and social adjustments you haven't done because you are too cheap and want to please your business orientated donors and you will have a policy. I'm not sure anyone could identify an actual Conservative policy!

Governments have options. When Labour get in they will to presented with the same things given to the Conservatives but never acted upon. If you don't see a change in 13 years does anyone think that was because;

A) no one had any thoughts on the matter in the UK
B) people did, but those thoughts were rejected
C) an ideological or significant reason meant that B) carried on for over a decade.

Make a long list of migration and social adjustments

It’s a bit woolly. Can you be specific?

It’s a bit like an interview with Starmer ;

What will Labour do on irregular migration? And what other adjustments are you thinking of

I don’t think they’ll necessarily win either. So many insane ‘leftists’ saying they won’t vote for Starmer - so more of the same is preferable then? Then they’ll just be whining when they’ve all voted green and the Tories get in AGAIN. It’s like some people really just want to cut off their noses to spite their faces. Idiots letting perfect be the enemy of good.

While I don’t disagree about their appalling management of the country in the last 13 years it’s wishful thinking to think this is the end of the Tory party

they shall group together come the following election out will come form the wings a new leader and once again they shall be out to win not just be a good opposition that might nearly win. there are far too many powerful people and immensely wealthy people backing the Tories for the party to fall apart for good

I think the Tories will move quickly to impose a much higher income requirement threshold for a new employment visas.. from £26k to £45k, or (better) even higher. More than £70k would be my cut off if I were in politics; this would be my first move. Cheapskate employers would hate it as they would have to invest in upskilling.

That would be a good move. The only issue is that they have a year to go. Whatever effect it might have had on migration, it's lost to the election cycle.

It might help if they removed the ability of employers to pay less for overseas staff on a visa than your UK citizen.

And where do we then get the workers in low paid occupations we so desperately need? No care workers or nurses, we desperately need people to come here and do those jobs, there’s currently a shortfall of 100k care workers.

I think they are likely to lower taxes and increase spending so Labour are left with no other option but to raise taxes again

Unfortunately that wouldn’t surprise me. It’s exactly the kind of dirty trick I’d expect of them.

Well Labour did something similar in 2010 with the note but it backfired

I think it’s been common place for both parties to do which is pretty appalling

Not the fucking note again. You mean the Treasury tradition started by a Tory chancellor leaving office. Which is entirely different to increasing taxes to fuck over the incoming government.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/17/liam-byrne-note-successor

I hope not labour due to school fees,.we'd be stuffed.

I’ve always voted Labour, when we moved up to Scotland I fully intended to keep voting Labour in GE’s. But I can’t & wont vote for this current version of Labour, I will not
vote for Keir Starmer, so it’ll be the SNP for me. Our local MSP is good though, and the only other party who would stand a chance in my constituency is the Tories. I might not like Keir Starmer but hell will freeze over before the tories get my vote.

Governments have often over spent in their last possible few months it’s not something only the Tories do read up on some political history it gives the sitting government a chance to possible win

and yes the note maybe read up Liam Bryne’s take on the situation. We were in the middle of a very difficult time he knew how exactly how bad things were (an no it wasn’t just Labour spending too much I am aware of that)

I'm a lifelong Labour voter and I'm warily optimistic. I personally like Keir Starmer although I accept he doesn't always come across well. I think he's a decent man, who wants to change things for the better....and has to win the election to do that.

I can't bring all the details to mind but I remember reading about why right wing parties are so stable (1 Tory party) and left wing parties (Labour, Lib Dems, Greens) are so split by infighting. Right wing parties are less ideological and more electorally practical - they do what needs to be done to retain power. Left wing parties are more focused on their ideology and politics so face more moral dilemmas and are more likely to renounce power in favour of principles. (Generally!)

So I hope the left wing voters can come together to vote Labour to try and salvage our economy, our NHS, our schools, our environment, our local government and local services etc etc etc

Well done for making my point better than me, as you say, opposition do not have access to all the data, until the run up to the GE, which we are not yet in.

Its also rather silly to expect ANY opposition party to come up with better alternatives to current Govt policy, what do you think the Govt would do with that?

Tories have also moved to permit foreign nationals to be paid less than British workers in skilled fields like computing, science, medicine etc. this was illegal under eu rules

So those professions are being undercut by immigrants. It's a race to the bottom. Brexit wasn't above giving British people privileges, it was about deregulating to make the obscenely rich even richer.

Truly, utterly, dismal and discriminatory. Unfair to British nationals and unfair to foreign nationals to get paid less for the same work. The government truly are the absolute pits.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/03/nick-clegg-did-not-cater-tories-brazen-ruthlessness