To think it's not a foregone conclusion that Labour will win the next election?

[flashbac]

I am seeing things here and there predicting Keir Starmer being our next prime minister etc, as if its already been decided.

I won't be voting for them under Keir that's for sure. Their stance on Gaza is the straw that broke the camel's back. I don't care if the Tories get in again. I am so disenfranchised I dont give a shit and at least with the Tories its "better the devil you know" and not Labour pretending they give a shit about people/human rights.

No, I'm talking about prior to the referendum , knowing that people would be asked so stay or leave with EU membership when the terms and outcomes of leaving were unbelievably absent.

It suited the government - regardless of which way it went - to remain entirely vague - it kept the bar low for what a successful leave would look like. But it was the opposions job to get that nailed. So people could make an informed decision.

But Labour weren't working hard to make the government work hard.

I'm not convinced it would have made a huge difference to outcome but it's poor form to renege on your responsibilities to oppose and then say many years later that you would have done a better job of things.

Labour are favourites to win the next election but I don't think it's guaranteed at all because a lot can happen between now and then.

Labour are in pole position, not because of any positives they bring, but because the government are shit. That's not a reliable foundation - ahead of Blair in 1997 and Cameron in 2010 it was reasonably clear what they stood for. Labour's position today is purely because the government are dreadful and Labour are traditionally the next party in line.

Labour steadfastedly refuse to explain what they would do differently in any detail. They can say they'd negotiate a better deal with France on boats, but how will they do this? Just putting aspirations out there is not enough to convince many people, and certainly not enough if the Tories get their act together in even a half-arsed way.

If they have good ideas and present them well ahead of the election, and if the Tories don't become less bad than they are now, Labour will win. But without the former the Tories don't need to become all that less terrible to represent a genuine threat.

TLDR Labour wins unless the Tories stop infighting.

Brexit is a 100% Tory failure, Cameron walked, May had her SM and CU red lines and Boris did whatever it took to become PM.

With a huge majority of 80 seats, Boris could have had whatever Brexit he wanted (subject of course to the EU agreeing)

On women's rights, Labour have far more female MPs than the Tories do, so i doubt they will all vote to destroy our rights, its just a Tory scare tactic, whilst they actually do remove rights for all of us.

Brexit was an unbelievable clusterfuck, a failure of the government, the opposition and the media...all of them convinced that a remain vote would just be returned and then we would all just get on with things. They were all arrogant and lazy.

The printed media was almost all pro Leave and anyone who thought a wavering poll lead of 2 or 3% was in the bag, was a fcuking idiot, in the spring of 2016, some polls had Leave in front!

Failure of Govt? of course but failure of opposition? nope, they had zero say, its an unfortunate part of being in opposition, you've no power.

I think it's a bit much to imagine anyone knew how Brexit was going to work - and I agree with your later comment that the outcome was a mess due to the majority of politicians of all flavours having a complacent feeling that remain would win. Against that backdrop though, it is a bit unreasonable and unrealistic to expect miracles from a Labour opposition.

Exactly - I have posted about this before but it is really peculiar "logic" to assert that Tory fuckups in government are because Labour are "too weak" in opposition.

No power, that doesn't mean they didn't have a job to do. They may as well have fucked off and stayed at home for all the good they did.

The media certainly wasn't universally leave. The shock was palpable. I particularly enjoyed the day after, when Ch4 news ventured to areas they had never been before, stumbling around working men's clubs - as though that's where it was all happened in these unsurveyed Northern parts, scratching their head and asking what the fuck happened.

If you go back to where I mentioned Brexit, it was to say that these were pinch points that engineered economic hardship for the future.

I think you seem to think I'm a Tory fan but this is a point where I was a Labour voter. When I held my nerve, for the greater good, and hoped that something better would come of it but it was disheartening to see such a hamfisted opposition that behaved appalling for my efforts.

But when it comes down to it, I'm a 'single issue' voter. Ignoring the facts that women's rights is an umbrella that encompasses many issues. And so the Torys have my vote until they also decide to operate with the religious zeal of gender faith bollocks or Labour return to a common sense understanding of women, represent them truthfully in Parliament, don't frogmarched gender critical MPs to the margins and build policies and health, sport and education for women as a class.

Have you not understood that manifesto publication hasn't yet happened? Are you not aware of the government's previous willingness to appropriate Labour's proposals?

@Desecratedcoconut what have the tories done for women that gives you so much faith in them?

@Dotjones Blair was no different, campaigned on a broad brush of ideals and promises.

Opposition parties dont have access to the numbers.

funny though when yesterday the cons promised 4,5 billion for the car industry, you dont jump up and say How will they pay for it?

I doubt there's much point in asking that. Single issue voters like this have already made up their minds. Of course they do have the right to do so, but as I said before, thankfully there probably aren't enough of them to make a difference.

None. I don't think the Tories are good for women. I'm appalled by the limitations of what was child benefits to two children and the decimation of disability benefits, which weighs heavily on women.

What I don't think they will do though is craft a legal definition of woman in the shape of gender ideology that will ripple through all our services, policies and data collection, that erodes reality in favour of feelings that would codify that up is down and make blasphemers, and potentially criminals, out of those who won't submit to this new reality in which women and children will be harmed.

I don't think you can put that genie back in the bottle afterwards. I think the damage will be pervasive and long term.

@Desecratedcoconut I am really struggling to see what you expected Labour to do in opposition.
It seems as if you might be suggesting they should have opposed Brexit - but that would have disenfranchised millions of Labour voters who voted Leave, as well as flying in the face of the referendum result.
As for "holding the government to account", there was a lot of misinformation flying about - remember we were going to have an emergency budget if we voted leave? That never happened - are you saying Corbyn should have demanded they go ahead with it?
It's ridiculous.

@jasflowers

Opposition parties dont have access to the numbers.

There's an enormous amount of data freely available to the public, which the opposition are free to download, analyse etc as they wish.

It's simply not true that the opposition don't have access to the numbers. They have access to A LOT of the numbers, it's only really the confidential numbers that they can't get.

It's also convention that opposition ministers have access to senior civil servants, data, etc., in the run up to a general election - that facilitates sharing of some additional confidential information.

I don't know anyone who votes based on who the party leaders are or changes their vote according to what's going on in the world. Most of my family are public sector workers and vote Labour. DH's parents and my grandparents vote Conservative. Always have, always will, regardless of what's going on.

I think Labour have a chance if younger generations actually go and vote, most young people I know are left wing. But I don't think it's a forgone conclusion.

It's the floating voters, are there are millions of them, the phrase "Mondeo Man" coined by Tony Blair. Elections are won and lost in the middle ground. They're not won and lost by your family who are public sector and always vote Labour nor your parents/grandparents who always vote Tory. It's pointless for political parties to preach to the converted (i.e. their core voters who always vote for them), they have to appeal to the floating voters, who are more likely to be swayed by party leader!

Thing is, they've spent the last 13 years tearing themselves apart and fucking up the country. There is nothing left of The Conservative Party. Its reputation at home and abroad is in tatters. They have failed on everything that they stood for: Economy, immigration, law and order, stability and conservative values.

They have lost their identity and without that they are just a bunch of rats fighting in a sack. Each pushing their own pet projects opposed by others in the party pushing a different project. Jockeying to get a better job in the next, inevitable, reshuffle. Campaigning to be the next leader.

Yes they are the most successful party ever, but now they're finished. Not because of anything another party did, they did it to themselves. And there's still more damage to come.

It's an interesting one because I agree the Tories have done themselves in. This psychodrama about Europe, which became everyone else's drama, is the key. Until the Tory Party resolve the issue with their own right wing they will never have peace. Their success has always been on competence above ideology, money above ideology, and pragmatism above principle.

Once they stop indulging their headbangers they will be back. No party can afford to let its extreme faction set the agenda. You just lose.

The parties that address growing issues around migration will get in eventually.

I don’t think it’s avoidable, here or in EU (probably elsewhere but not following so much)

The centre left will adopt the policies, as Aus has done and won’t dare go back, but generally it’ll take some political wrangling first on the right.

We’re seeing it in Germany, Netherlands, Ireland, Italy, Sweden, will see what US does and what happens with France

We may delay due to general length of time we’ve had one party, but I doubt we’ll be very different in the end.

Also agree with pp on floating voters. Those that post I only ever vote for X or lifelong whatever voter aren’t really the ones that will swing it.

You tall shite. How are the tories views on gaza any different.
After all the stuff tories have done to this country why anyone would vote for them is beyond me. It isn't better the devil you know that's crazy. I'd vote for the monster raving loony party if it got them out

As John Major said : put two Tories in a room and in 20 minutes they'll be fighting about Europe. Is it terminal ? It is hard to imagine. The elites will always need their proxies in the House of Commons.

The old Liberal Party used to dominate uk politics though and it imploded. Mostly on Women's Suffrage and Irish Home Rule. So its possible. Then the moneybags would just descend on Labour and use that party as their vehicle I suppose.

They are lost. They have tried every possible permutation except the one they fear most; the ERG. They need that leader, the complete nutcase, to finally explode. They will do it either before this election or after, the final gift to the Labour Party who have barely done anything except watch a series of Tory leaders go around the twist while their colleagues stab them in the front.

Or as I like to call it, "the Full Braverman" where they strip down fully before realising that being that naked in front of voters is a turn off. You know, it's better to flirt than show it all off in politics if you want a moderate vote.