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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To wonder why the Met Office are keeping this quiet

135 replies

MonZb · 28/10/2023 20:28

If this is correct for Thursday then it will be the worst storm ever to hit the UK. Gusts of 120mph possible along the south coast....

m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid0qHcNKAXqu25nPVUxDq3Do3K5TQjwgJVn1CR7S7vYyyjfnfHWsmngi372cs98piJNl&id=100064242267092

OP posts:
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17
IceAndLemonPlease · 29/10/2023 14:28

Bloody hope not. I’m in London and will be outdoors a lot commuting on Thursday. Hopefully they got it wrong

Ansaryon · 29/10/2023 14:42

Weather nerd here, I post on TheWeatherOutlook - which is where the OP's image was taken from. (It was yesterday's UKV raw model output, for what it's worth).

"Theres a weather warning for Thursday but only a yellow one. Hardly a met office blackout"
You won't get amber or red warnings issued this far in advance. The warning will become amber in due course and, if you go by the text of the warning, if things stay as they are it'll become red the day before.

There's still some uncertainty, but it's pretty likely that parts of the south are in for a battering. The core of the high winds (gusts over 100mph) are hopefully going to miss to the south, but even if they do the (weather) models are showing widespread gusts into the 60s (mph) on Thursday, with 70s and 80s likely in the SW especially, and probably in the far SE as well, near the coasts.

You'll note the text of the warning issued today by the Met Office pretty much says the same thing.

It's unlikely to stay exactly as forecast for the next four days. One scenario is the low bringing the wind deepens more and swings north, in which case you will see some newsworthy damage in the south. The other scenario - as shown by the midnight American GFS model, but not on the 6AM update - is that the low moves even further south, leaving us with mostly 40-50mph gusts. Even with all the computer power out there, we still can't say for sure!

CeriB82 · 29/10/2023 15:06

Ive not opened the link but ive just read on my local paper’s FB page that the weather will be horrible on Thursday

HelpMeGetThrough · 29/10/2023 16:06

It's a certainty windy here in Cornwall and heavy rain.

MonZb · 29/10/2023 17:02

As if by magic, the Met Office issued warnings this morning.

OP posts:
Iamonetoo · 29/10/2023 17:08

MonZb · 29/10/2023 17:02

As if by magic, the Met Office issued warnings this morning.

Funny that....

PuzzledObserver · 29/10/2023 17:35

MonZb · 29/10/2023 17:02

As if by magic, the Met Office issued warnings this morning.

Which of these do you think is more likely:

  1. Met Office monitor mumsnet, and having seen all the outrage on here, realised they have been negligent and they had better tell the country about the coming storm.

  2. The forecast reached whatever internal threshold they have - presumably partly about the strength of it, but also, crucially, about how far ahead they can be confident of where it will hit and how strong it is, as well as how far ahead it is prudent to issue a warning - and they issue a warning through the normal channels, at the normal time, in the normal way.

Lovemycat2023 · 29/10/2023 18:05

PuzzledObserver · 29/10/2023 17:35

Which of these do you think is more likely:

  1. Met Office monitor mumsnet, and having seen all the outrage on here, realised they have been negligent and they had better tell the country about the coming storm.

  2. The forecast reached whatever internal threshold they have - presumably partly about the strength of it, but also, crucially, about how far ahead they can be confident of where it will hit and how strong it is, as well as how far ahead it is prudent to issue a warning - and they issue a warning through the normal channels, at the normal time, in the normal way.

It was 1, definitely 1. Now can we make it snow at Christmas please ☃

Caerulea · 29/10/2023 18:40

@Ansaryon That's a chef's kiss of a post

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