In Northern Ireland, we always had a democratic route towards a united Ireland or staying in the UK. This is seen in the 1973 Northern Ireland Constitution Act, Sunningdale Agreement and Anglo-Irish Agreement. The 1999 Belfast Agreement really kept the principle of consent and a referendum from the previous ones, so that was not new or different.
No, the thing that made the difference in Northern Ireland was the Provisional IRA being defeated, especially ideologically. As far as PIRA was concerned the conflict was with the UK Government. The Loyalists were irrelevant to them, so them stopping wasn't going to make the Troubles end. The UK Government certainly wasn't going to leave - SDLPs John Hume argued if the UK did, then Northern Ireland REALLY would be plunged into civil war like in Lebanon. They didn’t so we weren't.
That left the PIRA. Defeat them and the conflict would end. Long story short, that is what happened. See PIRAs John Crawley saying they were defeated, for example.
So, in terms of the Middle East, how do you think the conflict there can end?
Israel isn't going to dissolve itself or leave. They do have the military capability to destroy Gaza and West Bank, but they are really constrained by their commitment to international law as noted by NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence (NATO StratCom COE).
Hamas isn't going to drop its fundamentalist position in wanting to destroy the State Of Israel. They see Israeli commitment to international law as well as requiring the support of Israelis and Western States such as the USA as a weakness. Hence Hamas use civilians and civilian infrastructure as shields. Hamas attack Israel using civilians and civilian infrastructure too.
The UN and NATO StratCom COE have confirmed this is what Hamas does. For Hamas, it's a win-win thing for propaganda to behave like this. But lose-lose for Israel.
Hamas must be defeated, but the problem is HOW can Israel do it without losing the support it needs?
People need to understand the kind of terrorism Hamas employs. They're far nastier than the PIRA was and PIRA was bad enough, let me tell you. Unlike PIRA, Hamas is backed by another State - Iran.
From my perspective, Northern Ireland really doesn't have any substantial relevance to the Middle East conflict resolution. The Belfast Agreement is not really a suitable blue print for the Palestinians and Israelis. It hasn't truly worked in Northern Ireland either - the conflict largely moved into a different mode and terrorism still occurs anyway.
I mean, can you really envisage Hamas agreeing to decommissioning of weapons or accepting Israel has a right to exist as a State?
It really doesn't look like it. Terrorist groups must disarm, but sovereign States do not. Hamas will baulk at that!