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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

We need to start talking about population decline

792 replies

user4567890754 · 02/06/2023 22:15

The first signs of it are starting to show in the UK, with primary school closures. Secondary school closures will follow.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/11158f12-0133-11ee-a364-04e704863f75?shareToken=5ef47b2b4776be376153089146c8bacf

Italy is a few years ahead of us.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/01/plunging-birthrate-threatens-italian-schools

Japan shows where every country is headed - towards a crisis where they are on the brink of being unable to maintain social functions.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/13/asia/japan-population-decline-record-drop-intl-hnk/index.html

And yet there are still people who think that we have a problem with overpopulation. It’s the opposite.

The school with one pupil: how falling birthrates are killing village primaries

Four generations of Ruby Booker’s family have been educated at Skelton Newby Hall, an idyllic village primary school in North Yorkshire.It was the autumn of 194

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/11158f12-0133-11ee-a364-04e704863f75?shareToken=5ef47b2b4776be376153089146c8bacf

OP posts:
Thread gallery
13
DogInATent · 03/06/2023 08:35

Is this the birthist cults trying to go mainstream and join the ranks of QAnon, the crypto bro's, and the freeman brigades that have emerged post-Covid?

Population decline and the demographic impact on social structures will be a major concern for future generations. But the human population is not at risk if it runs at a lower level, far from it. The future of humanity looks more optimistic if it can manage a reduction in overall population. The biggest risk is ego-shock to the Western world as it faces the reality that it's the minority and has declining significance globally.

BadLad · 03/06/2023 08:36

hyggeb · 03/06/2023 08:17

@BadLad I remember a teacher using it as a case study of "good management" in a geography module I did at uni or 6th form. If you google older articles there is definitely more positivity towards how they were managing the shift. The tide has turned though.

There’s probably less positivity now because despite decades of the government knowing about the problem it hasn’t improved in the slightest.

WakeMeUpWhenGoodOmensIsBack · 03/06/2023 08:36

musixa · 03/06/2023 08:28

I wonder if the thinning out in between 40 and 50 on that chart (1970 and 1980) is due to the high inflation of the 1970s?

Possibly, but mostly due to the baby boomers finishing childbearing (and having access to the pill so they didn't just carry on having babies and miscarriages j to their mid 40s like their mothers).

user4567890754 · 03/06/2023 08:38

Phoebo · 03/06/2023 05:59

I'm saying overpopulation isn't caused by people living longer. That doesn't make sense, they were there first. UK birthrate is 1.56, which is probably a good thing, now the government needs to figure out a way to sustain the economy and not place more burden on it. Because all the taxpayers being born or imported will also get old and need care. I'd say that most childless singles or couples won't be the people putting burden on the system as they will also probably have enough money to pay for themselves (and have taken the least out). That would be an interesting piece of research.

It can be quite difficult to get your head round but this is a really good explanation of why the world population will continue to increase, even if birth rates stay the same/decrease.

Bearing in mind this is from 2014, and current research suggests the peak will be sooner and lower - 9 or 10 billion, due to fewer than 2 kids each being produced at the bottom of the stack.

Why the world population won’t exceed 11 billion | Hans Rosling | TGS.ORG

In part 5 of a 6-part lecture, Hans Rosling uses statistics to give an overview of population growth and an explanation of why the total human population wil...

https://youtu.be/2LyzBoHo5EI

OP posts:
Lavenderflower · 03/06/2023 08:42

it hardy surprising with housing cost and nurserys fees etc

Homeywomey · 03/06/2023 08:44

We are always aware that there aren’t enough teachers and resources, so I see school closures as a good thing! They can then re-jig so there are less schools and more teachers. Only downside is that people may have to travel for longer to get to school…and maybe pay the fewer teachers we have more.

AMonthOfSundaes · 03/06/2023 08:46

Interesting stuff. I hadn't realised population decline was so advanced/such a likelihood.

(Confession time: as someone without children, I always do a sneaky look at catastrophe predicted dates as think: ah, that's ok, I'll be dead by then Blush)

gogohmm · 03/06/2023 08:47

The school population numbers is not relevant, there's always been peaks and troughs (eg baby boomers, then that produced a bulge a generation on etc. recessions can make people hold off too). There was a huge surge in children about 15 years ago, numbers are returning to historic norms now

gogohmm · 03/06/2023 08:48

Any less people on this planet is a good thing

topnoddy · 03/06/2023 08:49

Well as the planet as a whole is massively over-populated it sounds like a good thing to me !

pointythings · 03/06/2023 08:52

We need the global population to decline. Drastically. Getting there will be painful socially and economically for very many people, but that's just tough. This world can't sustain 8 billion people and it has to stop.

musixa · 03/06/2023 08:53

WakeMeUpWhenGoodOmensIsBack · 03/06/2023 08:36

Possibly, but mostly due to the baby boomers finishing childbearing (and having access to the pill so they didn't just carry on having babies and miscarriages j to their mid 40s like their mothers).

Yes, I suppose Gen X were the first 'post-pill' generation.

user4567890754 · 03/06/2023 08:54

caggie3 · 03/06/2023 07:28

Jesus christ this was some grim reading on a Saturday morning. I'm probably guilty of just not letting myself think about all these things given I have two very young kids and actually reading them all makes me feel both myself and them have scarily bleak futures and that I shouldn't have inflicted this on them. It's like there is point after point of why life is going to be horrible and difficult and no positives or ways out of it.

Not the point of the thread but I'm in bed with my baby tearing up at the thought.

Hey caggie. Sorry the thread was upsetting. Actually, I don’t feel the doom that some others on this thread have shared, and certainly not the misanthropic view that the planet would be better off without us.

I actually think human beings are immensely strong and resourceful and inventive. We have been through tough times before and we can find a way through this, to restructure the economy and society without restricting abortion or euthanising the elderly. We can find a way to live more cleanly and sustainably and in harmony with the Earth. We can find a way to slow the impending population decline and eventually stabilise the number of humans.

Those of us who care about the future for our children and grandchildren, and humanity beyond, will work together. I actually feel
positive, but I think we all need to be aware of the facts so that we can make personal plans, educate our kids and hold our politicians to account accordingly.

OP posts:
Goldbar · 03/06/2023 08:55

topnoddy · 03/06/2023 08:49

Well as the planet as a whole is massively over-populated it sounds like a good thing to me !

It could be a good thing, but the question is how to manage the transition without having elderly people starving in the streets or otherwise suffering in terrible conditions stripped of their human dignity because there isn't the money or workforce to provide care.

User135644 · 03/06/2023 08:56

Maddy70 · 03/06/2023 01:19

The world needs a population decline

Covid was there to facilitate that but we locked down for 2 years to make sure we didn't. Not saying we shouldn't have took loads of precautions over that virus but that was the irony. Western nations are fucked because of ageing populations and working age populations are fucked, yet all had to lock down for 2 years to protect the elderly because we all must live eternally.

WakeMeUpWhenGoodOmensIsBack · 03/06/2023 08:59

User135644 · 03/06/2023 08:56

Covid was there to facilitate that but we locked down for 2 years to make sure we didn't. Not saying we shouldn't have took loads of precautions over that virus but that was the irony. Western nations are fucked because of ageing populations and working age populations are fucked, yet all had to lock down for 2 years to protect the elderly because we all must live eternally.

We didn't lock down to protect the elderly, we locked down to protect the NHS (or the healthcare system of other countries). Everybody getting Covid at once would have been catastrophic.

Chowtime · 03/06/2023 09:01

On balance, it's a good thing. It's a global problem.

The real issue is that the burden of an aging population is going to be hard for the working population to manage. However, within 2 or 3 generations that will start to balance out. There's just a blip at the moment.

It wouldn't even be a particularly bad thing if the human race died out.

Oliotya · 03/06/2023 09:05

WakeMeUpWhenGoodOmensIsBack · 03/06/2023 08:59

We didn't lock down to protect the elderly, we locked down to protect the NHS (or the healthcare system of other countries). Everybody getting Covid at once would have been catastrophic.

When you consider who the main users of the NHS are, it's the same different really...

Endlesssummer2022 · 03/06/2023 09:12

hyggeb · 03/06/2023 08:12

It's the great dichotomy though. Older generations don't want more immigration and will vote Brexit and Conservative and anyone else who pledge to stop it. However, because older people live longer - and the average age in the UK is so high - we need more working age people to look after the older generations.

Yes, a very difficult square to circle. I do think it's a really interesting conversation.

Most won’t agree but there is a potential solution. Nobody over the age of 80 is allowed to vote. That way they can’t vote as a block in ways which screw the young who they need to help them. Stops them voting against their own interests.

Allthegoodnamesarechosen · 03/06/2023 09:26

The problem with immigration as a solution is that unless you are going to ‘incentivise’ ( kidnapp) young children, immigrants into established Western economies are not going to be of great economic use. Leaving aside the relatively few highly educated professionals , most people who want or need to leave their countries of origin will not speak the language of the country of destination. Many are illiterate in their own language, many who are literate are using a different script. This is without considering the very different cultural differences, often reinforced by religious conviction. So the society which results will be very different from the previous one. Not worse, or better, just different.

Before I am howled down as ‘racist’,I would like to explain why I believe this. I spent fifteen years living in France, we took early retirement ( no pensions) and bought a house and imported our money. It became clear that we had to speak French, or we could literally not manage to get the services connected! We both had o level French, and were educated to degree standard. I had fairly advanced ancient languages, so was used to different sentence construction and grammar.

It was very difficult. We achieved it by paying for private tuition, every week for three hours, and practising , speaking even at our stumbling level with as many people as we could. Most of the people we knew in a similar position (including Dutch, German and Belgian , not just insular Brits) found it equally difficult, but just gave up and retreated into little communities of their own ‘langue maternelle ‘.

I suppose earlier immigration into the UK faced less of this problem, because the Commonwealth ( Empire) had offered a common language and culture.

Successstory82 · 03/06/2023 09:26

Endlesssummer2022 · 03/06/2023 09:12

Most won’t agree but there is a potential solution. Nobody over the age of 80 is allowed to vote. That way they can’t vote as a block in ways which screw the young who they need to help them. Stops them voting against their own interests.

Ghastly

musixa · 03/06/2023 09:28

Endlesssummer2022 · 03/06/2023 09:12

Most won’t agree but there is a potential solution. Nobody over the age of 80 is allowed to vote. That way they can’t vote as a block in ways which screw the young who they need to help them. Stops them voting against their own interests.

I don't agree with this idea, however it's already in train. The requirement for voter ID is likely to exclude that demographic - less likely to be driving or travelling abroad; and less likely to be able to faff around uploading a selfie online to get a voter ID certificate.

Wednesdaysotherchild · 03/06/2023 09:29

YABU! The world is overpopulated and we are consuming more resources than we have planet. If humanity wants to survive it needs to shrink its population size! At the moment, we’re basically semi-intelligent locusts.

Reality25 · 03/06/2023 09:30

Care is just a sector that lacks economies of scale.

There are something like 5500 care operators in the UK and even the big players are spread over many many many different tiny sites.

What we need is a big player to enter the market properly, to build huge care blocks around big population centres (housing thousands each) and slash the price per week right down for state-funded care.

Whatifthegrassisblue · 03/06/2023 09:34

Wednesdaysotherchild · 03/06/2023 09:29

YABU! The world is overpopulated and we are consuming more resources than we have planet. If humanity wants to survive it needs to shrink its population size! At the moment, we’re basically semi-intelligent locusts.

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