We need to start talking about population decline

[user4567890754]

The first signs of it are starting to show in the UK, with primary school closures. Secondary school closures will follow.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/11158f12-0133-11ee-a364-04e704863f75?shareToken=5ef47b2b4776be376153089146c8bacf

Italy is a few years ahead of us.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/01/plunging-birthrate-threatens-italian-schools

Japan shows where every country is headed - towards a crisis where they are on the brink of being unable to maintain social functions.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/13/asia/japan-population-decline-record-drop-intl-hnk/index.html

And yet there are still people who think that we have a problem with overpopulation. It’s the opposite.

Don't be bloody ridiculous, there's loads of us. We should just spread out a bit.

Well, if people live into their 90’s, but with many health issues, needing care, then that has to be funded somehow, from, I don’t know…taxes?

The world population grew by 2.5 BILLION in the last 50 years...... I think that's enough people.

I don't think Mumsnet is the place you're going to get much support on this OP. Although personally, I completely agree with you and have watched that documentary.

All you're going to get is the automated responses about climate change and immigration. It's quite funny that people don't realise immigration doesn't solve low birth rates or population decline.

I'm sure people will start to realise the gravity of the situation in 2/3 decades when there'll be no retirement age, or pensions or any sort of adult social care as there won't be a good enough working population to support it.

I think it can only be a good thing. If Japan needs more workers then it should consider importing from abroad. The world has plenty of people, it's just that movement has become so difficult.

I dont think they are encouraging people to 'breed'.

Child benefit isnt much and nursery fees are crippling.

There was a net population increase in the UK last year of over 600,000 people. Given that sea levels are rising and people near coasts, low lying island nations, and living close to an increasingly hotter equator are going to need to move it is likely that our population will continue to grow - to the detriment of all the native animals and plants.

The last thing we need is people having huge numbers of children.

If you are bothered, go sponsor a Duggar. That family's descendants will number about 67 million in 250 years.

Village schools have been closing for years, most of them in small villages where families used to have 5 or 6 children to send to school and now only have 1 or 2.

I'm not sure as a country we can simultaneously moan about the birth rate dropping and claim we are too over populated to allow for immigration

If they actually want to increase the birth rate bring back child benefits for more than 2 children. Taking that away made the abortion rate spike and has also forced families into poverty.

But again people moaned (and still do) about families being paid child benefit

Try telling any midwife in the UK that there’s a population decline… I’m pretty sure this isn’t UK wide. Eg major cities / towns

Immigration is the answer. Japan has low immigration. Immigration is our friend to bring in workers to support our aging population. But it seems we don’t want non Brits, we have to breed our own pure stock. Madness.

The purely logical standpoint would be to head out tomorrow and 'remove' 75% of the human population. I reckon about 2 billion is a sensible and sustainable world population.

Obviously morals and ethics get in the way of logic from time to time. For anyone with a brain, the obvious thing to do about an ageing population and/or a declining population is to figure out how to work with the demographic change. The incredibly dangerous and naive thing (hence it's what governments of all colours have done for decades) to do is to try and inflate the population to deal with a perceived shortfall of workers.

Spoiler alert, immigration on average is a net economic drain on society in the short and medium term and only reaches equilibrium economically after decades. Bringing in workers to deal with a shortfall is treating symptoms not cause and simply pushes the problem down the road to be an even bigger issue down the line.

Why does nothing work in the UK - let's have a think - oh yes, population has increased by around 14%, >8 million people, in 20 years - I wonder if that might not be a considerable influencing factor? The previous 14% growth took around 45 years (which includes the post-war rush for workers...)

It's quite funny that people don't realise immigration doesn't solve low birth rates or population decline.

Muslim families in the UK and Europe have on average one child per family more than non Muslim families.

Therefore a greater immigration of Mulism people into the UK would boost the birth rate.

Im not sure how the Government would manage to do such turn on their stance on immigration though.

Populations have been expanding rapidly since the industrial revolution and a minor dip now needs to be taken in perspective. Population contraction will likely cause short term issues related to an aging population, such as the current situation in Japan, but over a few generations will lead to a more stable population, rather than one which is constantly growing beyond what is sustainable for the resources on the planet.

You will always see companies and goverments pushing for more more more but that is because people are just sources of income to them, in reality most people would benefit more from a stable society where resources were abundant.

We just have to hope that artificial intelligence aka robots will
look after the elderly and decarbonise the atmosphere. Gene tech is coming to make us all live even longer.

The Gilead point is a valid one though. We have to keep normalising breeding as a social norm.

Does anyone want to kill off the elderly? Say you get to 90 and that is it? For all or just those who can’t afford it? Those countries that force women to give birth…be careful. Forced birth and forced death, not so different as a concept.

The “what do we do about it” is very difficult and worrying. Financial incentives don’t seem to be very effective over the longer term. Some countries have been trying that already - eg Poland. if I think about myself, there is no reasonable financial incentive that would persuade me to have another child.

The concern is that, especially in non-democratic countries, if women can’t be persuaded to have more children, then the government will attack the problem in other ways. China is already restricting abortion rights ina desperate attempt to increase birth rates (even after so many years they spent trying to reduce them!).

The documentary I linked to above suggests that tackling unplanned childlessness might be the answer - women who wanted to have children but ran out of time fertility-wise because of lack of a suitable or willing partner, pressures of education and career, or whatever. But restructuring society to tackle those underlying issues is not simple either!

This, 100%

Yes but it defies logic doesn't it, because then those people get old and need funding and so on. It's exponential. And it also means quality of life declines. It's actually very stupid model.

This is humanity's biggest ever crisis and will be our last one if we don't do something.

The ignorance on this thread is astounding.

The global population will fall in our lifetime.

The global economy will implode unless drastic measures are taken.

This

We have small schools under threat here (and one closure in our county) - it’s due to screwed up planning policy. NIMBYs can’t cope with no development in their villages, so planners concentrate on building new towns which are much better resourced. Then NIMBYs complain that their small village is dying on its arse and there’s no bus service/school etc. Planning policy would be better set up to develop housing in group villages that supports essential services, rather than concentrate everything in one new town.

YABU. The world is hugely overpopulated. If we keep breeding at such high rates we will go extinct as a species anyway because we’ll kill the planet.

I understand completely the argument about pensions and need for younger workers to pay NI/staff care homes etc, but I do think the climate needs to come first.

Add in how bloody hard, lonely and expensive child rearing is, and it’s no wonder people are having fewer children. We only have one.

The main issues are:

1. Zero incentives for having kids for those who actually want to, it’s a luxury many can’t afford, expensive childcare, lack of part time/flexible jobs, cost of living crisis not helping. I’m in the US right now and don’t even get me started on the laughable family support here (no maternity leave but yes let’s ban abortions)
2. Western societies generally do have less kids and it’s not going to change (and yes I agree the world is overpopulated so perhaps it shouldn’t change), but nothing is being done to prepare for the future where there will be more elderly people needing care and pensions, than those providing care and paying taxes.

It’s not a particularly attractive topic for politicians to tackle though.

It's a good thing. Just think about the reduction in carbon footprints. Some people just want more wage slaves.

What does that even mean? What ‘social functions’ is he referring to? This sounds like one of those stock phrases politicians use that sound scary but are meaningless.

Also, Japan is very different to the UK. For example they have very low immigration rates, in the UK if the birthrate fell we could easily repopulate with younger people through immigration. We have a long history of immigration so I don’t think that is going to change any time soon,

Well this is where emigration comes in.
Luckily for us, people want to come to the UK still. Japan needs emigration.

We are overpopulated, but you are right that population decline needs to be managed.