Page 38 | To wonder what part of this statement reminded Gary L of Nazi Germany?

marmaladeo · 2023-03-11T16:55:15+00:00

This is Suella Braverman's statement Gary Lineker was reacting to when he said "This is just an immeasurably cruel policy directed at the most vulnerable people in language that is not dissimilar to that used by Germany in the 30s" ... https://twitter.com/GaryLineker/status/1633094764865126400 If she was saying she wanted to stop immigration I could understand GL's reaction. But she's not. I don't understand why anyone would not want to "stop the boats" when 1. they're lethal and 2. they're being run by criminal gangs. If GL had made it clear he wanted to stop the boats but thought this policy was the wrong way to do it, then fine. But he didn't - he just made an extremely inflammatory statement. He might be getting lots of love from some quarters, but personally I think he's an egotist who is playing into the hands of the people smugglers.

IClaudine · 12/03/2023 15:01

The UK has experienced broadly similar levels of migration compared to other high-income countries, on average over the past few decades

Source for this and my post above. Really excellent information:

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/

jgw1 · 12/03/2023 15:04

IClaudine · 12/03/2023 14:58

Found this:

Estimates from the Office of National Statistics suggest that total net migration was 504,000 in the year ending June 2022. This was substantially above pre-pandemic estimates of between 300,000 and 400,000 (depending on which measure is used)

The increase in overall net migration was driven by non-EU migration. Non-EU migration to the UK increased during the 2010s but rose particularly sharply after the pandemic. Meanwhile, EU net migration fell from 2016 onwards and remained low in the early 2020s (Figure 3).

Visa data give a more detailed picture of the reasons for non-EU migration patterns. Visa data overstate long-term immigration because not all people who receive visas actually move to the UK, and many come for just a few weeks or months and are not long-term migrants. Nonetheless, they provide an accurate indication of overall trends over time and show that three main factors drove recent increases in non-EU migration (F

“Bespoke humanitarian routes”. The largest single factor explaining the increase in visas granted to non-EU citizens from 2019 to the year ending June 2022 was the introduction of visa routes for Ukrainians and Hong Kong British Nationals (Overseas) status holders. Together these two routes contributed 45% of the 467,000 increase during this period (excluding visitors and short-term study). These routes are part of the ‘other’ category in Figure 6.

International students accounted for a further 39% of the increase. The UK has an explicit strategy of increasing and diversifying foreign student recruitment, and it is also plausible that the reintroduction of post-study work rights post-Brexit has made the UK more attractive to international students.

Skilled workers: 23% of the increase in visa grants from 2019 to the year ending June 2022 resulted from work visas—particularly skilled workers. Health and care was the main industry driving the growth. The increase in skilled workers is not solely the result of the post-Brexit immigration system, but also higher demand for workers who were already eligible for visas under the old system, such as doctors and nurses.

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International students is interesting.

Tuition fees for home students as barely increased in the last 10 years, university costs have gone up. So universities are going to want more and more international students to make the finance numbers at up.

It will be interesting to see if there is an influx of Chinese students this year with the relaxation of their covid rules.

IClaudine · 12/03/2023 15:09

It will.

I really have learned something from reading that briefing. It neatly dispels a few of the myths that are churned out.

Mamamia7962 · 12/03/2023 15:23

How can anyone say our population hasn't grown that much, we have over 68 million living here at the moment, 281 people per sq km. Out of something like 39/40 European countries we are the 8th/9th most populated per sq. km.

When will you say enough is enough when we reach 70 million, 80 million, 100 million. When?

SoTedious · 12/03/2023 15:29

When will you say enough is enough when we reach 70 million, 80 million, 100 million. When?

When we have enough doctors, nurses, police officers, firefighters, ambulance crew, teachers, lorry drivers, retail, hospitality and construction workers?

jgw1 · 12/03/2023 15:31

Mamamia7962 · 12/03/2023 15:23

How can anyone say our population hasn't grown that much, we have over 68 million living here at the moment, 281 people per sq km. Out of something like 39/40 European countries we are the 8th/9th most populated per sq. km.

When will you say enough is enough when we reach 70 million, 80 million, 100 million. When?

I understand that some of Brexiteers would like the UK to be Singapore on Thames.

I presume they mean with a population denstiy of over 8000 per sq km.

Rhondaa · 12/03/2023 15:34

SoTedious · 12/03/2023 15:29

When will you say enough is enough when we reach 70 million, 80 million, 100 million. When?

When we have enough doctors, nurses, police officers, firefighters, ambulance crew, teachers, lorry drivers, retail, hospitality and construction workers?

Ah right. Then you stop the boats? Got it, great plan if a little short on compassion.

hettie · 12/03/2023 15:35

@Mamamia7962 Well I can say it because objectively according to national and international data (by that reactionary body the world bank) it hasn't grown that much. 0.2 to 0.3 growth is really not that much.
Currently it would take 45 years of 'small boats' to get to 70 million (and it would also require no body in the UK to die).
It's the idea that immigration and population growth is out of control or exponentially increasing that fuels a lot of anxiety and it simply isn't true....

jgw1 · 12/03/2023 15:42

hettie · 12/03/2023 15:35

@Mamamia7962 Well I can say it because objectively according to national and international data (by that reactionary body the world bank) it hasn't grown that much. 0.2 to 0.3 growth is really not that much.
Currently it would take 45 years of 'small boats' to get to 70 million (and it would also require no body in the UK to die).
It's the idea that immigration and population growth is out of control or exponentially increasing that fuels a lot of anxiety and it simply isn't true....

Projections are that the UK's population will start falling in about 10 years time.

cakeorwine · 12/03/2023 15:46

Look at this language in the Express.
Designed to divide

www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1744985/brexit-small-boats-bill-migrant-crisis-poll-update

"If it survives legal challenges by activist lawyers, the legislation would see illegal migrants removed from Britain within 28 days and banned from applying for asylum again."

Mamamia7962 · 12/03/2023 15:57

jgw1 - What are you wittering on about now. If you have a point to make just say it

BewareTheLibrarians · 12/03/2023 15:57

This thread is a great read addressing misconceptions about asylum seekers and positing better - and cheaper - solutions than the current bill proposes.

mobile.twitter.com/stand_for_all/status/1634890906875703297

BewareTheLibrarians · 12/03/2023 16:03

@cakeorwine You know how language changes over time? Clearly the original meaning of the word “activist” has been lost, and it now means “people who uphold those pesky laws we’re trying to break.”

SoTedious · 12/03/2023 16:15

Ah right. Then you stop the boats? Got it, great plan if a little short on compassion.

Ah, what can I say - I am sorry if you failed to spot that I was being facetious.

MarshaBradyo · 12/03/2023 16:30

Mamamia7962 · 12/03/2023 15:23

How can anyone say our population hasn't grown that much, we have over 68 million living here at the moment, 281 people per sq km. Out of something like 39/40 European countries we are the 8th/9th most populated per sq. km.

When will you say enough is enough when we reach 70 million, 80 million, 100 million. When?

I don’t mind discussion of numbers. I think it’s good to be upfront. Then people can vote on that.

MarshaBradyo · 12/03/2023 16:37

itsgettingweird · 12/03/2023 14:28

The number isn’t so important but whatever the number is the next person outside it is still desperate, that hasn’t changed.

People moving from harsh situations isn’t something that always matches safe route numbers. I’d say can’t match it tbh especially in next decades

With decent maths we should be able to.

We've taken far more numbers of Afghan and Ukrainian refugees and people from Hong Kong.

And considering over 70% of those arriving via small boats are granted asylum (and those that aren't are not entitled) I think there is likely not many more than we can and will process who want to come here.

Plus there's the question of the whole of Europe. If people want processing in another European country and can get approval they won't need to move onto the UK to get asylum.

It's not simple but we need a far better process and better alternatives to stop people wanting to risk their lives in the channel and the smugglers having an audience it's worth continuing the practice for.

And considering over 70% of those arriving via small boats are granted asylum (and those that aren't are not entitled) I think there is likely not many more than we can and will process who want to come here.

I’m wondering about this part as currently the barrier to movement is incredibly high. You are risking your life pretty much. I would say that this keeps us to the number we have now.

If we remove that barrier what is the figure?

And I know people will say I can’t know but someone needs to know otherwise it’s not manageable

cakeorwine · 12/03/2023 16:39

Mamamia7962 · 12/03/2023 15:23

How can anyone say our population hasn't grown that much, we have over 68 million living here at the moment, 281 people per sq km. Out of something like 39/40 European countries we are the 8th/9th most populated per sq. km.

When will you say enough is enough when we reach 70 million, 80 million, 100 million. When?

It would blow your mind if you looked at the population density of the South East versus other parts of the UK.

The SE is very densely populated.
Other parts are less densely populated

itsgettingweird · 12/03/2023 16:44

hettie · 12/03/2023 15:35

@Mamamia7962 Well I can say it because objectively according to national and international data (by that reactionary body the world bank) it hasn't grown that much. 0.2 to 0.3 growth is really not that much.
Currently it would take 45 years of 'small boats' to get to 70 million (and it would also require no body in the UK to die).
It's the idea that immigration and population growth is out of control or exponentially increasing that fuels a lot of anxiety and it simply isn't true....

Thankyou for doing that maths.

That's interesting to see it like that.

cakeorwine · 12/03/2023 16:44

South East England - 487 people per square KM. (That excludes London)

www.varbes.com/population/south-east-population

Compared to the rest of the UK - but I guess that includes a lot of the UK where there is a lot of unpopulated areas.

BewareTheLibrarians · 12/03/2023 16:44

This is an interesting thread on numbers - specifically why Suella Braverman’s claims of “100 million” don’t match reality.

mobile.twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1634832362591645696

itsgettingweird · 12/03/2023 16:45

Mamamia7962 · 12/03/2023 15:57

jgw1 - What are you wittering on about now. If you have a point to make just say it

Errrr she did.

Which bit of stating that projections are in a decade the UKs population will start to fall did you not understand?

Perhaps if you let her/us know we can explain it?

cakeorwine · 12/03/2023 16:51

The world population is growing. And the countries where there are issues do have growing populations.

Climate change is happening - which will affect migration patterns. People will want to leave when crops fail repeatedly.

Civil wars and wars will continue.

Human rights abuses will continue in these countries and people will want to leave.

This is something that is not going to go away. I don't think we can lock everyone up.

But I think the world is ignoring the situation - with a growing world population and potential increases in refugees and people fleeing to get a better life, to escape climate change. persecution.

We can put up the borders. Detain people.

But what happens to those people who we shut out?

Not our problem? Some other country's problem - usually the neighbouring country?

hettie · 12/03/2023 16:53

Actually t sorry to be pedantic but the UN predicts that the UK population will hit 70 million bu 2050 but is will be the peak of the growth rate, after that the growth rate will become negative but the absolute number will drop at a slower rate (people dying and not being replaced). I think this is based on this being in line with the global picture on developed economies and estimated fertility rates. Of course where the growth has come from in the last 20 years has seen some big shifts.
The tables here migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-impact-of-migration-on-uk-population-growth/ show that migration has in the last 20 years been a big factor in terms of ratio (what has accounted for growth). We've become more diverse which is maybe for some people an unwanted change (not me I'm very happy wth that)..

BewareTheLibrarians · 12/03/2023 16:54

@MarshaBradyo There’s not much point in me giving a number (as much as I’d like to they’re not my strong point!) as it would be for the government of the time to decide.

There is an argument for balancing it with other forms of immigration and emigration so the overall intake isn’t overwhelming, but that can also be problematic - for eg reducing the number of student visas would remove huge amounts of income from universities.

Re emigration - this piece (screenshot) from the FT was quite eye opening. Might we soon see young people travelling to Slovenia and Poland to work and send money home to the UK in a reverse of the recent migration patterns?

To wonder what part of this statement reminded Gary L of Nazi Germany?

MarshaBradyo · 12/03/2023 16:54

I think many people just want figures. Make it simple and explain likely outcomes in numbers.