Liz Truss has resigned. Part 3: The Return of the King?

[sunnydaytoday0]

Continuation from last thread.

By Monday we could have a new prime minister, and by next Friday at the latest.

Will Sunak win this time, or could Johnson get his old job back? Would the Tory members once again go against the wishes of the MPs?

And yes I think Johnson sees himself as some sort of world king..

I understand the argument that the Tories have nobody less shit, but that's a different point.

I’m fairly sure Sunak will do a good job, he’s proved better able to predict than many.

Whether his wealth and skin colour impedes him is a big shame but more a reflection on what drives some people. If he brings stability but isn’t as popular well so be it. We’re in very difficult times regardless of party. Labour will face same issues - unless war has ended.

A question for you all, who being elected as PM would most likely lead to a general election in the near term - Sunak or Johnson?

I'm much less confident in Sunak's ability to do a good job, but setting that aside for a moment, his relative lack of appeal to the electorate is obviously an important point. The reason Johnson has managed to get a few dozen MPs to back him is because they're willing to gamble on him being an electoral positive again, not because he was so brilliant at governance.

A question for you all, who being elected as PM would most likely lead to a general election in the near term - Sunak or Johnson?

Interesting question. I think Sunak is more likely to be capable of seeing out the rest of the parliamentary term as leader than Johnson, but that's a different point.

True, but that approval rating graph is a pretty bumpy line. No reason to believe that Johnson couldn't seize on something and turn it round. Two years is a long time.

There was a poll yesterday that said the Tories led by Johnson would be ten points behind Labour. Which is a lot, but they can then start arguing once again that a vote for Labour is a coalition of chaos as they'd not have a majority in Parliament. They'd be brazen enough to try it, for sure.

Also the Tories have got to be pretty scared. Polling, say, 20 and getting only 50 of their MPs returned next time, and the Lib Dems could have a hard go at replacing them on the right. Which seems crazy but if they're anything like the party I was a member of they'll jump at any advantage.

Why does it concern you if you back Labour?

I’m fine with choosing overall stability even if some voters are racist or care about wealth.

He has serious backers including Baker and Badenoch who are to the right of the party, that helps him command the house. We need a functioning government who can get things through.

True, but that approval rating graph is a pretty bumpy line. No reason to believe that Johnson couldn't seize on something and turn it round. Two years is a long time.

You must see that maybe things will completely flip and he'll manage to reverse a longstanding decline in ratings isn't a very persuasive argument, though? Especially when there's no reason at all to think they will or could, and the small matters of an escalating cost of living crisis and the parliamentary enquiry looming.

Johnson has learned zilch. He is not talking as if he has to make any change. I am sure his colleagues know his qualities well already. The arrogance is amazing. Yes he got his meeting but what did he expect? That Sunak would get back in his box? That is not smart thinking.

I think the Conservatives also know that the Committee is a big issue, because if they vote him in and then squash the results by ignoring it, it will ruin another part of constitution designed to keep a check on power.

I imagine they will be a bit more worried about this if they are likely to lose. If Labour come in, the lack of accountability will favour them. Johnson will have gifted them a system which suits him, but it would also suit any power hungry politico. Integrity does matter not matter if left or right. Wouldn't you be a bit worried if the things Johnson has ruined, were maintained by a Labour Government? This used to be natural check on politicians acting unlawfully, lying obviously, and ignoring advice. You had to do these things because if you didn't, you would set a precedent for your opponent to do the same.

Johnson has ruined that balance, and he threatens to do it again.

Anyone else thinking Raab seems a lot calmer these days? He was a co-writer of the Britannia deranged book along with Truss and Kwateng but seems to have ditched those principles also. Therapy? Media training? Spending a lot of time with Sunak?

Why does it concern you if you back Labour?

Didn't say I backed Labour, I am on the left but haven't yet decided who I'd vote for in a GE. Not that it would matter actually as I live in a very safe seat, and the Tories are equally unlikely to get in regardless of who their leader is.

What do you mean by why does it concern you? I assume it's obvious why I would be worried if I don't think Sunak will do a good job (I think he probably will end up as PM fwiw).

I hope you're right, and I hope the Tories see that too. But the man is nothing if not unpredictable.

If Labour come in, the lack of accountability will favour them. Johnson will have gifted them a system which suits him, but it would also suit any power hungry politico.

This is a very good point. The Tories being wiped out in a GE would be hilarious, but we do actually need a functioning opposition. Labour getting 500 plus seats as per some predictions this week would bring many of it own problems. It's an interesting thought experiment to consider whether the parliamentary Tories would accept PR now if it could happen with a click of the fingers.

A friend of mine said on Friday:
"They are all shit. They will all screw the country over. Therefore my choice would be the entertaining one who will cause chaos rather than the boring spreadsheet guy"

He will probably vote.

He is an intelligent sane man. I can't say his reasoning is any better or worse than many others have though, tbh.

this part

his relative lack of appeal to the electorate is obviously an important point. The reason Johnson has managed to get a few dozen MPs to back him is because they're willing to gamble on him being an electoral positive again, not because he was so brilliant at governance.

If you want a Labour or left party in government you’d see this as ok

Kissingfrogs25

I disagree with you somewhat in that I think Rishi Sunak will be a perfectly fine and capable PM - Sunak was my first choice when Johnson resigned. He won't "be sent packing within weeks" and the Conservatives are more likely to last at least another two years in government with Sunak in Number 10. And who knows what will happen in two years time? Another pandemic? A war? A major scandal in the Labour Party? On the other hand, I am still a Boris Johnson fan and I do agree that he has the better potential to beat Labour at the next election - if only he can get past the Privileges Committee - but it is without question a gamble. Difficult choice.

Prediction I think is that Sunak will meet 150 by Monday. Johnson, good question. I think there are about 30 people holding off and seeing what he can do.

But expect more momentum for Sunak today.

I hope you're right, and I hope the Tories see that too. But the man is nothing if not unpredictable.

Hmm, I think he's quite predictable actually. We all know full well who he is and what he's like by now. The fact that Johnson essentially made his position untenable because of consistently not giving a shit and behaving as though the rules didn't apply to him is quite consistent with the way he lived his life previously. If the party are daft enough to bring him back, which I suspect they probably won't, the problems that made it impossible for him to continue are still going to be there.

If it didn’t end in trouble the reaction on SM would be amusing at least.

this part
his relative lack of appeal to the electorate is obviously an important point. The reason Johnson has managed to get a few dozen MPs to back him is because they're willing to gamble on him being an electoral positive again, not because he was so brilliant at governance.
If you want a Labour or left party in government you’d see this as ok

One, because I think it's interesting in itself. Two, because although watching the Tories continue to implode is extremely amusing, unfortunately their instability has a negative effect on the rest of us regardless of whether we'd piss on them if they were on fire.

Why is nobody asking why BJ was on holiday ?
If he is still a backbencher why wasn't he at work ?
Isn't that what he is paid for ?
To be in parliament representing his constituents.
Can't he take his holidays when parliament is in recess ?
I don't live in the UK so perhaps the rules are a bit different.

@Clavinova - if Johnson beats the Committee but loses to the Labour Party, then there is literally no serious system to hold Labour to account. Johnson has smashed most of it, and any politician, including Kurt Starmer, will be delighted to operate with a parliamentary majority, and no effective checks. He could say what he likes and no one could touch him.

I imagine that issue is on the minds of a few Conservatives who understand what opposition is like.

Guido currently has about 120 still undeclared but in reality it's more like 140, because Mordaunt's declared supporters will start defecting now that they can see it's hopeless. She had her chance to build some momentum with her TV interview this morning and didn't take it.

Boris only needs another 25 on Guido's figures. He will get there.

MPs can take time off during parliamentary sessions, just like anyone can take leave from their job.

There is no a pairing system so that if an MP from one major party is away, one from the other party refrains from voting to even things up.

There's nothing improper about Johnson being away on holiday.

It is kind of riveting. That’s one thing going for it 😂

Cos his name is Boris Johnson and we've come to expect no better.