Liz Truss has resigned. Part 3: The Return of the King?

[sunnydaytoday0]

Continuation from last thread.

By Monday we could have a new prime minister, and by next Friday at the latest.

Will Sunak win this time, or could Johnson get his old job back? Would the Tory members once again go against the wishes of the MPs?

And yes I think Johnson sees himself as some sort of world king..

Ian Dunt at iandunt
The only certainty for Johnson now is humiliation. It might come this week. It might come over the next two years. But it'll come.

Bloody hell. The arrogance of that venal, political milquetoast Penny Mordaunt.

The problem with comparing the size of the vote (or the number of passengers on the railways etc) historically is that the population has increased, I think by almost ten million since 2000. So there are more voters - particularly more older voters, who are living longer and generally more likely to vote - and previous records can easily be broken. Comparing the number of votes for the Conservatives in 2019 with the number of votes for Labour in 1997 isn’t comparing like with like.

Kate Andrews at kateandrs
Mordaunt is a great media performer, but what's the point in doing a Sunday interview if you're going to refuse to comment on any public policy, economic and otherwise? Including things said just weeks ago.

Only direct answer: rumours she'll lend Boris votes 'completely false'

Fraser Nelson at frasernelson
Someone genuinely preparing to be PM would be ready to answer such questions, esp as winner would be in power end of next week.

Terrific word, and so glad I finally looked up its derivation.

Haha great word. I was reminded earlier of her ability to soak up a few votes which is the only way I can lower the annoyance

We'll quite, if she wants MPs and party members (if she gets that far) to pick her, surely she needs to say what she'd actually do. It was a bizarre interview. "Make me PM, My policies are secret".

Did anyone notice how Dominic Raab was listing the 'challenges' that BJs government had to get the country through and included Brexit in the list?

PM’s stance is no odder than Boris’s “make me PM, I promise I’ll be better this time. You can totally trust me.”

Steven Swinford

At the 8am call this morning he was 'dressed for the job' - one colleague was surprised to see he had his shirt tucked in

Sunak has formerly declared

Except that the highest vote of all was in 1992.

The population has increased, but not my so much as to make the comparison invalid.

Johnson does get the vote out. That's why he still has a following. It's true that he was facing Corbyn but then so did May two years earlier.

Can you imagine Truss getting a majority in 2019?

Dan Hodges:
“There will be integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level of the government I lead”

This line is telling. Shows Rishi Sunak currently has no intention of doing any sort of deal with Boris.

Nadhim Zahawi is backing Johnson

Johnson does get the vote out. That's why he still has a following. It's true that he was facing Corbyn but then so did May two years earlier.

Did get the vote out you mean. The idea that because it happened three years ago under very different circumstances it would also happen at the next GE is, I agree, one that a number of the right are attracted to. There's no reason to suppose it's accurate though. Particularly as it would of necessity involve Johnson being able to hang on as PM long enough to actually contest another GE, when none of the underlying problems that made his position untenable in July would have actually been resolved.

Also, Corbyn was much more popular in 2017 than in 2019, there is no comparison at all between what May faced and what Johnson faced in that respect.

Except that the highest vote of all was in 1992.

That’s turnout, which is dependent on other factors. I suppose I should have said that there are too many variables, including more voters, to render comparisons valid.

He did appeal to many people - someone said recently that he got those who normally didn’t engage with politics to get on board

I think that was true but the polls now are crazy. There are so few saying yes it’s just a markedly different place to 2019.

The other big issue is the committee hearing. If that was a known rather than unknown and he was cleared he’d be in a better position.

Sunak's in the running, as @MarshaBradyo says. He's declared it formally. Source: all news headlines.

Well, from a Tory point of view they have to pick the person who will lead then into the next election, regardless of whether it's now or in two years time. Even if it all their options are bad, who is there who has a comparable track record of connecting with voters. Apart from the 2019 election, which I think clearly is relevant, the is the fact that a large proportion of the public have been pretty shrug about his constant mendacity over the last couple of years. He's survived things that would have destroyed other politicians' careers. He is charismatic.

The other big issue is the committee hearing. If that was a known rather than unknown and he was cleared he’d be in a better position.

He will spin this as a technicality, or just flat out lie about the result, just like Trump, and that will be good enough for an awful lot of people.

I feel fairly neutral towards him - but I think he’ll cause instability in party which could be an issue.

But do you think he can turn those polls around? A lot of people seem to feel very strongly about disliking him

No I don't, but I suspect he could be the difference between 80 or fewer Tories getting elected next time and, say, 180 - 200.

2019 was a lifetime ago, not a normal 3 years at all. They might as well bring back Major because he won in 1992 for all the relevance 2019 has to 2022.

Apart from the 2019 election, which I think clearly is relevant, the is the fact that a large proportion of the public have been pretty shrug about his constant mendacity over the last couple of years.

I know this is a popular narrative, but Johnson's personal ratings had been on a downward trend long before he finally went. His opinion polls were appalling and had been for a while. This is June 2022, for example, just after they managed to lose one of the safest seats in the country with the biggest byelection swing since fuck knows when.

twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1542496194051674112

The reason he hung around for so long when others wouldn't have got away with it is because it took his parliamentary party such a long time to see the way the wind was blowing, not because the public hadn't turned on him.

Enough of them had come to understand that this wasn't going away, and never would with Johnson because the nature of the man is that there are always going to be more scandals. In this instance, we can see the next shitshow coming up, assuming there isn't another one first, and it's the parliamentary enquiry.

I understand the argument that the Tories have nobody less shit, but that's a different point.

I think the Conservatives are in such a bad place currently that they cannot hope to appeal to both red wall and blue wall seats. Most of their support is blue wall, the red wall was the icing on the cake. Sad as it is for the red wall Tories, they lose their seats at the next election. It just depends on how many blue wall seats fall as well.