The route for Johnson to get 100 noms, included him getting Badenoch share from the last leadership battle:
Zoe Keller AT KellerZoe
Boris' path to 100 backers.
Here is how he can get them.
^www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/21/boris-johnson-100-backers-how-return-prime-minister/^
This article has been published at 1:31pm (on Friday, 21 October 2022), and refers to a moment when a total of 38 MPs had publicly thrown their support behind Boris. He needs the support of 100 Tory MPs by Monday 24 at 2:00pm to make it onto the leadership ballot.
A Telegraph statistical analysis of those already publicly backing Boris gives him cause for optimism. The pool of MPs available from the factions now backing Boris could propel him over the threshold.
16 out of 38 Boris' backers publicly backed Truss in the last race. Boris has got so far over 90% of the previous Truss supporters who have declared on record. Applying 90% to all her backers, Boris could secure 74 PMs from her camp alone.
5 of Braverman’s supporters have declared so far and all have gone to Boris: this 100% would secure 17 MPs in total from the publicly declared Braverman camp. Repeating this for every candidate in the previous race, Boris get 124 backers in total, more than enough needed.
46 of Mr Sunak’s 97 previous supporters have declared: all bar 4 have again backed Mr Sunak. This rate of desertion to Johnson – roughly 1 in 10 – could potentially grant Boris 8 MPs all-in-all.
In the June confidence vote, Boris won 211/148. Yet, 4 of Boris' current backers publicly called for him to resign at the end of his time in office, showing that forgiveness is on the table.
Ok so who backed Badenoch and Braverman previously? It would suggest these are the names to be looking for now (I've put their current position):
Braverman (Second Round):
Desmond Swayne* (declared for Sunak)
Jason McCartney (UNDECLARED)
Robin Millar (UNDECLARED)
Henry Smith (declared for Johnson)
Steve Baker (UNDECLARED)
Julian Lewis (declared for Sunak)
John Hayes* (UNDECLARED)
Richard Drax (declared for Johnson)
Philip Hollobone (declared for Johnson)
Danny Kruger (UNDECLARED)
David Jones (UNDECLARED)
Miriam Cates (declared for Sunak)
Greg Smith (declared for Johnson)
Bernard Jenkin (UNDECLARED)
Scott Benton (declared for Johnson)
Badenoch (Fourth Round):
Lee Rowley (UNDECLARED)
Lee Anderson (declared for Johnson)
Eddie Hughes (UNDECLARED)
Julia Lopez (UNDECLARED)
Tom Hunt (UNDECLARED)
Ben Bradley (UNDECLARED)
Justin Tomlison (UNDECLARED)
Gareth Bacon (declared for Sunak)
Caroline Johnson (declared for Johnson)
Andrew Lewer (UNDECLARED)
Neil O'Brien (UNDECLARED)
Michael Gove (UNDECLARED)
Leo Docherty (declared for Johnson)
Alex Burghart (UNDECLARED)
Lucy Allan (UNDECLARED)
Nigel Mills (declared for Sunak)
Marco Longhi (declared for Johnson)
Sarah Dines (UNDECLARED)
Rachel Maclean (UNDECLARED)
Robert Courts (UNDECLARED)
Tom Randall (UNDECLARED)
Nick Fletcher (UNDECLARED)
Steve Double (declared for Johnson)
Adam Afriyie (UNDECLARED)
Desmond Swayne* (declared for Sunak)
John Hayes* (UNDECLARED)
Bill Wiggin (UNDECLARED)
(*Swayne and Hayes appear on both lists as they switched support to Badenoch after Braverman's elimination.)
What IS noticable here is that we have a significant percent of those yet to declare. So it is very possible Johnson COULD get the 100 he needs.
There are 40 names above. 10 have already declared for Johnson. 4 for Sunak. Leaving another 26. These are really important now for Johnson to get. If he doesn't then it makes it considerably more difficult to get the noms as these are some of those he needs to pick them up most.
Conversely more of these Sunak picks up, the more credibility he has as leader with support across the party.