To think we’ll have a new government by Christmas?

[WagathaChristieMystery]

Stay with me here - I know this might have sounded unlikely even as recently as a couple of weeks ago, but thanks to recent events, I think it’s looking more likely by the day.

Does anyone else agree, or am I alone in my thinking here?

I should add here that I’m fed up of the political musical chairs that has characterised our governments over the past 5 years or so, but curious to see if we get a new government over the next couple of months.

Boris was “safe” too as he won a confidence vote earlier in the year. Instead, the “men in suits” went to see him and told him his position was untenable. It was a similar story with May.
backbenchers will find a way to oust her if they need to. Don’t necessarily need to change the rules.
i would be surprised if she lasts until the end of the year. Secretly hoping the Tory party implodes on itself and a GE is called. Happened with John major.

Yeah, your parliamentary party is allowed to tell you how to vote. I really hope they're underestimating how many rebels there are.

There’s a difference in being told how to vote and being told you’ll suffer consequences if you don’t vote the way your party wants you to.

I think Gove has clearly set up self up to be the rebel. He’s experienced and senior enough to see it through… that was a damning assessment of Truss on the BBC this morning. I doubt the Conservatives will let him loose like that again!!!

Who let him loose though. ? Did he pretend to be on board with her, then think ' fuck it , I'm
going for broke ' today ?
I follow politics ( I don't understand the stock market , but I try ) and this came out of left field.
The other two on the show with him were also skeptical too , but not quite as scathing.
It was a bit bizarre as normally they are not as critical.

I loved it because he helped to balance out how soft Laura’s interviewing techniques were with Truss!!

Gove made headline grabbing statements. “Don’t think it’s right” and “it’s not conservative”.

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/619781

Petition now at 400k signatures and counting!

The problem is that in order to get elected as either Pam or a politician you need simple sound bites like:

"I will lower taxes" - I mean who wants higher taxes?
"Reduce NHS waiting times" - who wants longer waiting times?
"Bring down inflation "

However the politician will avoid or in the case of Liz Truss not understand the complexities that there is always a price to pay for these statements
Lower taxes means lower spending, higher NHS spending means higher taxes, bringing inflation down means higher interest rates.

The electorate are to blame by voting for politicians that promises pain free, simple and no down side solutions and then either fail to deliver (Johnson) or even worse make matters worse with their solutions (Truss).

The only solution I can see is proportional representation and coalition Governments that have to seek and agree compromises and to restrain ill thought through or radical policies from one dominant political party say with an 80 seat majority and two years before the next election.

They will debate the petition , then just shelve it I suppose ;(
Between a rock and a hard place now
What will the conservatives do ?

I think the Tory party have realised they're Trussed up in a political suicide jacket and probably will move to oust her as quickly as possible on the basis that it couldn't be worse than keeping her. The fact that she is dim and incompetent might be overlooked but her failure to interview well has floored them altogether.

The event will happen in November. The OBR report will show its a fucking disaster for the UK. The Tory whip will be removed from loads of MPs. Ex PM Johnson will gather them up and hey presto, a new party is formed with an existing majority in the HoC and we are stuck with Boris Johnson as our PM for Life.😱

How?

no one is going to push for a General Election, the 1922 committee doesn’t allow for another conservative leadership challenge within 12 months. The only way would be Truss resigning and I doubt she’ll go anywhere- she is a tough cookie and unlike other PM/chancellor combos over the years she and Kwarteng are really supportive of each other.

She isn't dim academically , but she is ideological and had her head turned by the likes of Patrick Minford.
The ERG like her because they can use her for their own ends and they know that many core voters want a smaller state , tax cuts and cutting back on benefits. I've heard it said time and again that too much money is wasted etc
Usually by people who can afford private health care or schools and so on and think that everyone else is a scrounger.
Boris Johnson won over the old red wall with some gumption and bluster and his pretense of being one of the people, slogans and promises
It certainly worked there , for a while. He could get away with it.
Ms Truss hasn't the big enough personality to win many people over to her side.
Her key note speech will be interesting on Wednesday, but her mates will back her up there

What I’m hoping is that the petition results, and the strikes this autumn and winter, will force the government to accept the huge strength of feeling against their recent policies and force them to act - whether that’s by getting rid of Liz Truss and electing someone else as PM, or even calling a general election.

Will Kwarteng be supportive after her interview today on bbc one though? Or won't he care that much , see it as one of those things ?
Especially if the lib Dems start asking questions about his meeting the other Friday : insider trading allegations etc? Although you'll need evidence and I doubt there is any about that floating about. It'll all be hearsay on Twitter etc..

The 1922 can suspend rules. Whether they will or not remains to be seen.

But it will be interesting to see if there any Tory MPs willing to vote against elements of the Budget/fiscal event and whether they'd risk loosing the Whip to make their point.

It has crossed my mind that this could be the Year of the Three Prime Ministers.

@Will Kwarteng be supportive after her interview today on bbc one though?"

I'm sure she'll say her comments were misinterpreted. Again.

I think there will be lots of MPs who are working out what is the best option to take, from a list of tricky options. Do they do what’s best for their constituents even if it means losing the party whip? Do they vote against what they believe to be best for the constituents, and keep the whip? It sounds like the decision-making process will be very difficult.

Sounds like the name of a dodgy pub that i would avoid !

Most MPs are pretty self serving I would imagine.
They will probably just toe the line and hope the economy doesn't crash that badly or cross their fingers really hard!

More instability in government isn’t going to help anything. Is it?

Yes. This government is awful. But we are stuck with Truss at the moment.

<singing>

All I want for Christmas... is a coup

Agreed!

I'm dreaming of a Tory free Christmas
Just like the ones I used to know.

You never know.
Although the third PM may be even worse :(