Do you think Putin will use nuclear weapons?

[colddayinhell]

I'm getting very nervous about the ramping up of the war and Putin's calling up of 300,000 reservists. It feels like this is a major escalation. I know that any use of nuclear weapons would mean instant retaliation but it no longer feels like a MAD scenario as it almost feels now like he wants a scorched earth and has nothing to lose and doesn't care that it would destroy everything.

Maybe the nuclear threat from Putin is just a smokescreen, he may instead use chemical or biological weapons, he seems to like those. So whilst we are all distracted and stressed over nukes, he's got something else up his sleeve. As a PP said, there's a constant watch by the West on all of Putin's missile sites. So it's pretty useless launching one without it being shot down immediately.

Then there's what he said about having some weapons that are more modern than those of NATO. Doesn't mean those are nuclear weapons.

I think there might be a time window to turn it around from the Russian people and Putins insiders. Where they get wise to what is really going on and actively fight back.
My worry is the propaganda. Putin could literally starve his own people, blame it on us to give them a reason to want to be against us too.
Radicalisation has to start somewhere. Its already happened with his insiders, and now he is radicalising his own people. Suicide bombers mentality doesnt just happen spontaneously, but what if he said fight or starve, and it is the wests fault?
Has he already got a suicide bomber mindset?
The media is to blame for a lot.
I for one thought it very clever the huge show made for Queen Elizabeth. Clever editing, camera angles and deliberate long queues (including shaming individuals) showed the world that we are united despite the shambles of our politics.
Its all media hype on both sides.
If we could only show Russian people the truth. But what country really gets that from the media?

UK military support for Ukraine was entrenched long before Johnson. It's happened over multiple PMs now, we've been training their troops since 2014. Support for Ukraine is a broad consensus issue in UK politics and there is no PM we could realistically have who wouldn't have responded in the same way.

Johnson has certainly sought to make political capital out of UK support for Ukraine, but the idea that this is something he as an individual dragged us into is actually applying the same bullshit logic that he did when he tried to take personal credit for institutional and consensus based British support. Don't be fooled. It's never been about him, he just wanted to pretend it was.

Leaving aside the issue of cultures, which you clearly don't know anything about I would say that the russians are very much behaving like nazis.

And the taliban, for that matter

I don't think Putin is that desperate to get himself assassinated.

Given the number of oligarchs who've had "accidents" recently and the Western sanctions, he can't be keeping too many friends on his side.

Even the most idealistic Putin supporter isn't stupid enough to think that a Russian launch won't result in retaliatory strikes from the US, UK and probably Israel (who won't exactly be keen to see their main supporters be taken off the map)

I’m terrified. Putin is elderly and supposedly dying of cancer or something. He has nothing to lose. And he’s arrogant enough to take everyone else with him. He doesn’t care if it ends up as scorched earth, he’s no worse off because he’s dying anyway.

Even the most idealistic Putin supporter isn't stupid enough to think that a Russian launch won't result in retaliatory strikes from the US, UK and probably Israel (who won't exactly be keen to see their main supporters be taken off the map)

A launch at the US would result in mutual destruction. But a smaller strategic strike on the likes of us, may not.

The rest of the world will be shocked and terrified that he’s actually gone there.

They won’t actually sacrifice the lives of millions of their own people in retaliation regardless of NATO agreements.

Then there's what he said about having some weapons that are more modern than those of NATO. Doesn't mean those are nuclear weapons.

He has some advanced conventional weapons, but not enough of them to make a difference. Tanks, rifles, etc. that have been seen in parades but have either not been seen at all in Ukraine or only in very small numbers. Laser weapons that have been named in public popularity contests.

But he also has some advanced nuclear weapons at unknown stages of development. And he doesn't need many of those to make an impact.

• Poseidon/Kanyon - unmanned nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed torpedo drone. This is the 'tsunami' weapon that Russian TV threatened the UK with.
• Burevestnik/Petrel - nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed cruise missile. Testing of which may have lead to a fatal nuclear accident.

You know it's not just his call though right? It isn't a question of him pressing a button with no input from elsewhere. It won't happen if the people around him, who are unlikely to all have terminal cancer, don't want it to.

A launch at the US would result in mutual destruction. But a smaller strategic strike on the likes of us, may not.
Are people muddling strategic and tactical?

😂😂 @RoachTheHorse

I know what you're getting at but I think a strike, certainly by multiple warheads on the UK mainland, would be regarded as strategic.

I expect do eventually.

Do I worry? Not really. I just stop reading the news.

@illiterato well that's what the west did when Putin took Crimea and things only got worse since

Yes I did mean strategic, sorry.

Tactical! Not strategic.

Thanks @DogInATent

So your saying putin just wants a giant Russia; the land of which he wants being in Europe?

I still don’t understand why they hate the U.K.? Because we gave Ukraine support? Surely they would know we would in the same way we would have helped Russia if someone tried to invade it. Same we would expect others to support us if someone tried to invade us.

I see from online translations of Russian state tv where crazed military people are making speeches about shaking the unshakable island (us) by sending a nuke. In a way it’s a weird back handed compliment. Is this just a show and dance and that they secretly admire us or do they truly hate us. It’s confusing.

I'm not sure whether we would step in automatically to defend Russia from invasion like we have with Ukraine as we have a cooperative relationship with Ukraine but certainly not a good one with Russia although who would invade Russia? The antipathy between Russia and the UK dates back to around the time that they decided to start poisoning people within the UK and put citizens here in danger. Things were good with the Russia/Soviet Union from Gorbachev through Yeltsin to the early Putin years but went downhill after that.

I found this article by Lawrence Freedman in the New Statesman very balanced if anyone is interested:

www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2022/09/using-nuclear-weapons-putin-problems

No.

Putin considers himself essential to Russia. Without Putin in charge, there's no point in Russia existing. Without Russia existing, there's no point in the world existing

Chilling, but I concur. Cut him and he bleeds Russia.

Putin has been underestimated time and time again. He has played a long game with the destabilisation of the US and UK (Trump, Brexit). He is politically long-sighted and five moves ahead of everyone else. Putin is intelligent. He's not a 'madman' in an irrational sense.

We've got to stop thinking any of his actions/reactions will be 'normal' (Trump again, actually).

Putin has children and I assume people he loves somewhere out there. I’d like to think he won’t start an apocalypse for their sake at the very least. But who knows 😬

The USSR lost 20 million in WW2 whereas in the Uk we lost 385,000 for a population of 1/3 the size. Misery and death is baked into their souls sadly in a way we could never understand or wish to and a goodly proportion of the male population, in particular, is almost permanently pissed.

Please don't read too much into that. Nothing has been confirmed. I must have read about three or four different ailments he's supposedly dying from and that's ontop of the supposed assassination attempt he had recently.

I've been scared too but trying to keep perspective. When you go outside your door tomorrow you will see that the world is still turning, not to undermine the seriousness of the situation but the hoo-ha you see online isn't representative of the whole picture. Try not to get sucked in to threads like this too much as knowledgeable posters aside there will always be some people who revel in stoking up fear.

People are milling about as they usually would, not clambering to get on planes out of here. I'm only saying this because it's what I needed to hear too.

I had to have a complete media detox back in February when the bald headed little shitbag first started throwing around nuclear threats. It served me well. I'm thinking of reverting back to that. No news and hiding anything on the topic of war.

We are going to be OK.

Putin won't use nukes, he didn't even threaten nukes directly he really isn't that stupid.

As for the person who apparently has knowledge from BAE and has tried to say China has tech that the western world should be wary of is really not coming from anything remotely true.

For instance there latest aircraft carrier that they paraded via CCP channels are rebuilds of 70's soviet tech, the poster shows a deep lack of knowledge of China let alone the cha bu duo mentality that is deep routed in all aspects of chinese industry, if the alledged nephew did work for BAE and wasn't just cleaning the toilets they wouldn't have made such a comment. A simple background check would be looking up the elite forces promoting the recent laser scopes which was pushed via chinese gov chanels as just one of many jokes about the strength of the Chinese

I know everyone has been ignoring them, but there is a slight tilt towards a 50 cent army on here to be aware of. But more likely just a useful idiot.