Do you think Putin will use nuclear weapons?

[colddayinhell]

I'm getting very nervous about the ramping up of the war and Putin's calling up of 300,000 reservists. It feels like this is a major escalation. I know that any use of nuclear weapons would mean instant retaliation but it no longer feels like a MAD scenario as it almost feels now like he wants a scorched earth and has nothing to lose and doesn't care that it would destroy everything.

No I don’t and even if he would I would imagine his generals would disobey the order.

Open your eyes - the west hates Russia. Has done for decades. You hear the rhetoric from countless politicians, the public, even our BBC TV shows have been steeped in anti Russian storylines for years.

I can't stand the man but let's not play innocent either.

No.

@Celia24

Well yeah sure Russia has had some bad press. Can’t imagine any other reaction to the Salisbury incident.

Sure they have the dodgy business men / corrupt oligarchs etc.

But really apart from when they are assassinating people and putting them in suitcases or stabbing them with umbrellas; no one really gives a fuck.

You know they are just like us. They are very western. Culturally very similar. A bit fucking crazy too. A normal day in Russia subreddit has given me many a belly laugh and joyful moment. It’s just sad the way this is happening. As the saying goes there is more that unites us than divides us and I am not all fluffy duffy and apply that to all countries. There’s plenty of countries we are more different to than similar. Russia really isn’t one of them.

@LemonSwan I think we can agree and disagree. The Russiaphobic attitude didn't begin with Salisbury. We are culpable as well.

I agree from the point of view that most people are alike rather than different. After all this is coming from oligarchs, not the Russian people themselves on the whole - just look at the footage last few days of Russians trying to flee Moscow.

However, I was a teacher in international schools for years and spent time teaching Russian kids. There were cultural differences between the Russians versus the European kids. Putin has fought quite hard to keep Western culture out of Russia. Interestingly I taught older teens and almost all of them cited Putin as their role model. I had never experienced anything like that

Well they have their own repercussions from Stalingrad and when used as a buffer to hold Germany back in WW2.

The UK has been remarkably indifferent to Russia and Russian influence, to our cost.

“We” (read - our dodgy elite and leaders) have liked them enough to let them murder our people (the novochok shit and MH17) and accepted their “investments”.

They own half of London and huge chunks or many of our large companies

This. Madness to say anything other

Reeks of Russki propaganda

i lived in Russia for a while, so I agree with @DogInATent . In order to see what Putin wants just look at the old USSR map. He hates Gorbachev for what he’s done to once great Russian State. Putin feels it’s his purpose and future legacy to re-build Russia on the basis of mixing USSR territorial ambitions with orthodox Christian ideology. He has no intention whatsoever to go any further than that. Neither does he have any funds or military to do so.

@LemonSwan the west is as much of a collective name as Eastern European. Russia doesn’t hate the west. Russian elite used to speak French (before USSR that is), Russians tend to send their children to study abroad and they are particularly in awe of the Uk (especially the monarchy). When I was in Russia I was told numerous times that “the west” doesn’t want to see Russia prosper but to destabilise it and then break it apart… to take the resources, to weaken its international presence. So it’s not hatred, it’s mainly fear.

Russia doesn't "hate the UK".
It just sees us as an easy target for propaganda and buying political influence to disrupt the EU (and potentially NATO).

Also the fact that we have played around with them when they requested to join NATO. I would call it more than indifference. Also as above say they are tectchy after ww2 and the mass starvation.

No.
I doesnt care about the west but he does about China.
i imagine Xi has hade some very Frank conversations about what happens if he does.

To put minds a little at ease (or at least so far as what Russia says can be believed) - Russian deputy foreign minister today:

"Moscow is not threatening anyone with nuclear weapons.....open confrontation with NATO and the US is not in Russia's interests"

Another senior Russian official reiterated that "a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought".

Finally Russian Ambassador to the US stated that he "wants to believe that the US and Russia are not on the verge of falling into the abyss of nuclear war"

I am sure those are the sentiments shared by the vast majority of Russians. But we’re dealing an actual nutcase here. And those in high office who disagree with him risk “accidentally”’falling off the top of a tall building.

Firstly I don't actually think Putin is a 'nutcase'. He just doesn't view the World from a Western perspective, and as such actions that may seem rational to you or I wouldn't to him. He has shown time and time again to be very shrewd. That's not to say he hasn't made a massive miscalculation in starting this war or that he is an evil dictator.

Its also worth reading about the 'mad man theory' of foreign policy, most often associated with Richard Nixon.

Secondly it isn't simply a case of Putin pressing some big red button. Yes he has say over when such weapons would be used but there is a clear chain of command and you only have to look to the Cold War to see examples of that chain being broken and individuals using their initiative and disobeying launch orders.

Firstly I don't actually think Putin is a 'nutcase'. He just doesn't view the World from a Western perspective
You think someone who would even consider firing a nuclear weapon is sane? It’s guaranteed to lead to worldwide destruction and the deaths of millions if not billions of people, possibly even the end of the human race. Threatening to press the button is not just “not viewing the world from a western perspective”. It’s madness.

He has said it, meaning that he's decided that there is something to be gained from the fear such statements cause. There is a big difference between using fear as a weapon and actually firing a nuclear missile.

Acting 'mad' and being 'mad' are very different things.

I said remarkably indifferent not totally indifferent, ie the UK has given Russia and the Russian state's misdemeanours much less attention than we really should've. They have been let away with far, far too much.

I quite understand Russians still being pissed off with the Germans given WW2. But if they want to talk about the Western Allies not doing enough to assist them during that period, assuming this is what you're getting at, there needs to be acknowledgement of the role that the stupidity and venality of the Soviet leadership and their alliance with Hitler at the start of the war contributed to the suffering of the USSR (and indeed some of said Western Allies). The Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union was partially facilitated by the country's own exports from that period. They sold the Nazis the things that were then used to occupy them. But it was convenient for the role of the USSR in the Nazi war machine pre-June 1941 to not be much talked about afterwards, for various reasons.

I don't necessarily agree that he's mad either. I can see how Putin may think that threatening nuclear use may give him some kind of advantage by making everyone so scared that they give in to what he wants. I can't see any scenario whereby actually using the weapons gives him an advantage.

Even if Putin is actually fully crackers and willing to trigger Armageddon to go out with a bang if he can't get his way, I can't picture that 'I want to start a full-blown nuclear exchange because I'm very cross' is going to cut it with the people he would need to actually launch the weapons.

The only leader so far who's ever given the ok to press the button is Harry S Truman and nobody says he's mad.

Agree that the world looks quite different from the Russian POV.

Truman wasn’t mad because the US was the only country that had nukes, which meant no retaliation and a swift end to the war. In the current scenario where multiple countries have nukes and would retaliate, it’s insane to fire them. Mutually assured destruction. Everyone dies.

True. It was only foreign civilians that got nuked, from a USA pov. From the point of view of the other side and, actually Russia, it was horrific and barbaric.

Yes, the question with Truman is one of morals and of whether using the nuke cost fewer human lives than an invasion would've. Completely different.

Well, I'm quoting my nephew there who tells me they were shocked when India says they won 12-0 in tests between BAE jets and Russian jets. And yes Chinese kit is built on a Russian backbone with much better tech and build. He builds the Eurofighter and it's readily believed amongst the workforce apparently.

www.indiatimes.com/news/india/indian-air-force-leaves-uk-pilots-shellshocked-with-120-victory-in-a-2week-training-exercise-243936.html