Do you think Putin will use nuclear weapons?

[colddayinhell]

I'm getting very nervous about the ramping up of the war and Putin's calling up of 300,000 reservists. It feels like this is a major escalation. I know that any use of nuclear weapons would mean instant retaliation but it no longer feels like a MAD scenario as it almost feels now like he wants a scorched earth and has nothing to lose and doesn't care that it would destroy everything.

[kirstywursty012]

Omg - there’s NOT going to be a nuclear attack! It’s all Willy waggling.

Putin is using it as leverage to get what he wants - a larger occupation in Ukraine and less NATO on his doorstep. If he drives enough fear into the west, he’s more likely to get what he wants.

He knows that all this talk about using huge nuclear weapons goes in one ear and out the other so has reworded it to a “smaller tactical nuke” to make it more believable. It’s a load of bollocks.

This war is crippling the western economies - if he just hangs tight and carries on then he’ll inflict all the damage he needs to anyway and he’s happy to wait it out. Of course if this is the plan then he has to ensure the media are still talking about it so of course he’s going to throw around threats now and again.

[vera99]

If Fiona Hill says something then we should listen very carefully to what she is saying which is basically that WW3 has begun. Israel / Iran has always been a flashpoint and now Iran is partnering with Russia selling drones no doubt wanting nuclear tech in return. She also says that Elon Musk was speaking for Putin directly in his last utterances on the matter.

thehill.com/policy/international/3693040-fiona-hill-says-musk-tweet-clearly-is-a-message-from-putin/

Fiona Hill (born October 1965) is a British-American foreign affairs specialist and academic. She is a former official at the U.S. National Security Council specializing in Russian and European affairs. She was a witness in the November 2019 House hearings regarding the impeachment inquiry during the first impeachment of Donald Trump. She earned a Ph.D. in history from Harvard University in 1998. She currently serves as a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, as a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and as a member of the Trilateral Commission.

“We’ve been in this for a long time, and we’ve failed to recognize it,” Fiona Hill
“I spoke with the Russia expert Fiona Hill She told me she believes there’s an element of self-delusion to much of the current commentary about the possibility of Washington and the West continuing to back Ukraine while avoiding conflict with Putin—who, after all, launched his war against Ukraine not in February but eight years ago when he invaded the country and illegally annexed the Crimean Peninsula. As far as Hill is concerned, we are already fighting in the Third World War, whether we acknowledge it or not. “We’ve been in this for a long time, and we’ve failed to recognize it,” she said.”

www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-bidens-washington/what-if-were-already-fighting-the-third-world-war-with-russia

[Igotjelly]

@vera99

If Fiona Hill says something then we should listen very carefully to what she is saying which is basically that WW3 has begun. Israel / Iran has always been a flashpoint and now Iran is partnering with Russia selling drones no doubt wanting nuclear tech in return. She also says that Elon Musk was speaking for Putin directly in his last utterances on the matter.

thehill.com/policy/international/3693040-fiona-hill-says-musk-tweet-clearly-is-a-message-from-putin/

Fiona Hill (born October 1965) is a British-American foreign affairs specialist and academic. She is a former official at the U.S. National Security Council specializing in Russian and European affairs. She was a witness in the November 2019 House hearings regarding the impeachment inquiry during the first impeachment of Donald Trump. She earned a Ph.D. in history from Harvard University in 1998. She currently serves as a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, as a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and as a member of the Trilateral Commission.

“We’ve been in this for a long time, and we’ve failed to recognize it,” Fiona Hill
“I spoke with the Russia expert Fiona Hill She told me she believes there’s an element of self-delusion to much of the current commentary about the possibility of Washington and the West continuing to back Ukraine while avoiding conflict with Putin—who, after all, launched his war against Ukraine not in February but eight years ago when he invaded the country and illegally annexed the Crimean Peninsula. As far as Hill is concerned, we are already fighting in the Third World War, whether we acknowledge it or not. “We’ve been in this for a long time, and we’ve failed to recognize it,” she said.”

www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-bidens-washington/what-if-were-already-fighting-the-third-world-war-with-russia

I do think we're in one of the great power struggles of our time. Perhaps we will look back on it as WW3. I don't however think that makes nuclear weapons inevitable. There are so many different theatres of war available now (thinking cyber, economic, proxy-wars such as Ukraine) that a war with the ramifications akin to the world war could be 'fought' without the use of nuclear weapons, and many experts suggest that actually the threat of nuclear weapons remains far more impactful than the use of them would be.

Either way the World won't look the same once this is done.

[colddayinhell]

This seems to be ramping up again, lots of talk in the news speculating about whether Putin will go ahead with this and Marcron ruling out automatic retaliation. Scary times.

[Igotjelly]

@colddayinhell

This seems to be ramping up again, lots of talk in the news speculating about whether Putin will go ahead with this and Marcron ruling out automatic retaliation. Scary times.

Lots of hay being made of Macron’s comments.it’s important to remember that the most likely use of nuclear weapons would be a ‘small’ battlefield nuke. Given France only has large strategic nuclear weapons then it’s obvious a retaliatory strike wouldn’t be the most appropriate response.

[notimagain]

@Igotjelly

Lots of hay being made of Macron’s comments.it’s important to remember that the most likely use of nuclear weapons would be a ‘small’ battlefield nuke. Given France only has large strategic nuclear weapons then it’s obvious a retaliatory strike wouldn’t be the most appropriate response.

Macron's comment certainly keep being recycled and he was pretty much stating what most observers think is the case - don't assume there would be an automatic nuclear retaliation if the Russians use a single nuke.

BTW the French do have some sub-strategic air delivered nuclear ordnance, e.g. the ASMP-A..

[Igotjelly]

@notimagain

Macron's comment certainly keep being recycled and he was pretty much stating what most observers think is the case - don't assume there would be an automatic nuclear retaliation if the Russians use a single nuke.

BTW the French do have some sub-strategic air delivered nuclear ordnance, e.g. the ASMP-A..

Thanks 🙏 your input is always welcomed!