Do you think Putin will use nuclear weapons?

[colddayinhell]

I'm getting very nervous about the ramping up of the war and Putin's calling up of 300,000 reservists. It feels like this is a major escalation. I know that any use of nuclear weapons would mean instant retaliation but it no longer feels like a MAD scenario as it almost feels now like he wants a scorched earth and has nothing to lose and doesn't care that it would destroy everything.

Not really exactly this at all...yes the Russian conventional capability is screwed but this thread isn't about that capability and that's not what people seem to be worrying about.

I certainly it's highly misleading to try and give the impression all would be OK for Britain because you " don't see him having the resources to 'drop bombs' on London anytime soon."

China certainly haven't spoken out against the war in any vociferous way and their words about not escalating (let the parties talk) is a toothless facade. What is happening with Russia sets a dangerous precedent for the indo-pacific which is also unstable. China's interests are tightly aligned with Russia against the west

I'm not saying China would be happy about a nuclear exchange but they don't want to see Russia lose

The bigger picture here is the desire for a Russia-China led new world order

TBH China is embarrassed by Russia which has very little high-tech capacity or manufacturing apart from its mineral reserves but is quite happy to have whatever Russia wants to sell at a discount (as does our 'ally' India who also buys Russian arms because they are cheaper). But if the current situation prevails then they will no doubt be happy to have Russia as a servile client state. Business is business after all. My nephew who works at Bae making the Eurofighter says that Russian aviation tech is as good if not better than ours if a little clunky but says that China's military high tech trumps them all.

So it's looking sadly that if climate change or a new pandemic doesn't finish us off then war will be the one to do it. There are multiple flash points between the superpowers all over the place and at some point one of them is going to blow.

Isn’t awful we have to live in fear of nuclear war 😞 trying to keep the news off from the kids, I have one particularly anxious teenage son. I bet the ordinary people in Russia are panicking too.

It is possible, but from everything I've read I believe it's unlikely. As others have said, latest speeches are just as much for the Russian audience as the West. Despite extensive state propoganda there are many in Russia who don't support the war. The very bravest of these have been protesting in Russia (and getting beaten and arrested).

For those who say Let him have Ukraine, sorry you're delusional if you think Putin would stop there.

I take comfort in the fact that the Ukraine offensive has destroyed much of the Russian army's military hardware (which had not been well maintained) and sadly thousands of young Russian men (inc conscripts) have lost their lives as a result of Putin's lust for power. I would be surprised if their nuclear arsenal was in good condition.

The first CND march I went on had 500 folks in 1978 I seem to remember but in the next 2 years went from that to 100s of thousands and of course the Greenham Common women's camp. Hopefully, youth will find their voice and soon it's their future after all.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenham_Common_Women%27s_Peace_Camp

There is not a chance in hell that China would back Russia using a nuclear weapon, any attempt to influence him would go the other way. Their conspicuous failure to offer any public support has, amongst other things, made it quite clear how the Chinese regime feel about this situation. And the Iranian regime have their own problems at present.

"The Kremlin will allow the Russian military to incur huge losses. The Pentagon estimates that up to 80,000 Russian soldiers have already been killed or wounded in the war. This is more than the Soviets lost in ten years of fighting in Afghanistan. Russia has also sacrificed a colossal amount of equipment, including more than 1,700 tanks (equivalent to 65 per cent of its pre-war inventory); 4,000 armoured vehicles; and 200 aircraft. For example, in a single battle in Bilohorivka in May, Russia lost almost 1,000 soldiers and nearly 100 pieces of equipment while trying to cross the Siverskyi Donets River."

Interesting article about Russian military and weakness of Russian military logistics.

www.google.com/amp/s/ecfr.eu/article/lessons-for-the-west-russias-military-failures-in-ukraine/%3famp

1300 recently arrested

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/22/russia-protests-more-than-1300-arrested-at-anti-war-demonstrations-ukraine?CMP=twt_gu&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium#Echobox=1663827069

I don't think China would back nuclear use and agree they'd dissuade but the longer term picture is an alliance there that's against the west

No he's threatening nuclear weapons to try to look tough. He's a failure and the whole world knows it.
A bit like a school bully who's been shown up by a smaller kid and is now going to fetch his dad.

Which isn't new really. One positive thing to come out of this tragic debacle is that the China-Russia pairing are strategically weaker than they were previously. Although I don't discount that China might eventually be able to balance some of the disadvantage and the blow to their Taiwanese ambitions with Russia being more their bitch than previously.

Yes I think we have to hope against hope that it IS a blow to their Taiwan ambitions because Russia's success - or, more worryingly, successful use of a nuclear weapon - is a green light and a dangerous precedent in more ways than one

The greed of western capitalism that bet huge on investing in China building state-of-the-art factories over decades (Tesla has the world's biggest Gigafactory there as does Boeing amongst countless others !) as is probably the device you are reading this on knew no bounds. China can turn round now and stays thanks for all of that now politely fuck off... which is why the west won't turn on China anytime soon.

Lenin wrote, “When it comes time to hang the capitalists, they will vie with each other for the rope contract.”

Indeed Jacob Rees-Mogg's Hedge Fund has bet big on China - it would seem that morals are for the little people.

www.ft.com/content/0b08fcfa-e0bc-4c9b-8f5d-5c69db2da32c

Late to this but YANBU.

i don’t think there will be a nuclear holocaust BUT I do think Putin will use a strategic nuke.

There has been repeated talk in Russia about how easy it would be to wipe the UK off the map.

I think there’s a good chance that Putin will use his strategic nuke on us. Yes we are part of NATO and any nuclear attack on us should mean an instant nuclear retaliation from the USA.

But realistically, that retaliation won’t happen because the USA will not sacrifice millions of American lives on our behalf. Logically, there’s just no way they’d condemn their entire population to certain death because the same thing had been done to us, a small country a long way from them.

We have a nuclear response too

Wouldn't have to wait for US

The USA has more sense than the UK then.

Fancy putting all of us at risk in this way when we're this irrelevant small little country that should be minding its business.

Oh, it's definitely a blow. For multiple reasons. It's made clear that the West won't automatically be ok with invasions of neighbours and that there's a line being drawn. Putin was pretty obviously hoping that the Western response to the Taliban retaking Afghanistan would become the new norm, but it hasn't. It has strengthened NATO and also got both the US and Japan talking more about defence of Taiwan. It's made it clear that it's really difficult to conquer a country that has a modern army and weapons, even if you have a lot of resources yourselves. There are people questioning whether that's ever going to be possible again now.

It's also made people question assumptions about large armies in militarised autocracies being difficult to defeat. The Russian military were seen as something to fear because they were good at terrorising defenceless civilians, but this is a different game altogether. So would Taiwan be. The Chinese might have a large and expensive army too, but they haven't engaged in much conventional warfare recently. There can't be many veterans of the Sino Vietnamese war left, not that it was exactly a resounding victory for them anyway, and a few skirmishes and peacekeeping aren't remotely comparable. The mystique of big expensive armies with lots of tanks in authoritarian states has been damaged.

I had to share this screenshot. As I was reading your comment this was the image below. Took me a moment to realise it was an ad and you weren't making a random point 🤣

America has now partially lost the Korean War, The Vietnam War, The War in Iraq and the War in Afghanistan if they seriously think they could take on China then they are stark raving mad. China thinks in decades and whilst we were pursuing fringe Islamic nutters in fly-blown countries they were patiently building first-world infrastructure and buying up decades-long mineral contracts with numerous countries. The age of America as the undisputed top of the tree superpower is coming to a close and with have to share that spot with China and to a lesser extent India.

I needed to read this. Thank you 💗

Every British prime minister wants a war. It makes them popular. It makes them feel important and powerful. Like a real leader. Thatcher, Tony Blair, Cameron. Of course Boris Johnson wanted a war too. Probably more than any of the others. He sees himself as a new Churchill. So he latched onto the war in Ukraine, and did everything he could to make it his war and to milk it for personal popularity. If that puts the UK in danger - so what? It's Boris Johnson who matters.