Britain are the default host, therefore we're probably more in with a shout to host it on behalf of/in collaboration with Ukraine if they were unable host next year.
But yes, the "it's all political" commenter haven't being paying attention. Iceland were widely regarded as a shoe in before 2020 was cancelled. Israel have no neighbours in the contest and won 2018. Italy won 2021 because there was bound to be a rock resurgence sooner or later. Malta did really well last year, and Albania did terribly in spite of bringing Flo Rider and having a slew of near neighbours.
All the winning acts generally have a rigorous selection process in common. We send whoever the BBC deem appropriate - we did fairly well when we set carefully chosen acts.
However, this guy is good! Certainly should pick up a few points from the jury votes at least.