It's not WW3

[TheRealityCheque]

To wish people would stop conflating the Ukrainian invasion with WW3.

It's shite and completely unacceptable and my thoughts are with thee innocent people affected but it is not a world war and isn't going to become one.

IABU - WW3 is here
IANBU - it's a localised war.

Merrymarigold very well put!

Reassuringly I am seeing people on Twitter (defence experts, foreign policy journalists, etc) saying that they think Russia's military looks weaker than expected - their attack has not been as all out as people thought it might be and there are reports of Russian soldiers abandoning tanks at the border and deserting. Also rumours that many of the soldiers in the area are young conscripts with little experience.

The suggestion is that Putin was banking on Ukraine waving the white flag pretty quickly, if they fight back with any real intent then they could well push them back.

twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1496791276179660803?s=20&t=7kNAZ7ce2GNZqnDAzk9dcQ

twitter.com/AVindman/status/1496828413935562757?s=20&t=7kNAZ7ce2GNZqnDAzk9dcQ

our own defence secretary is saying he's not likely to stop with just the Ukraine

[quote CaveMum]Reassuringly I am seeing people on Twitter (defence experts, foreign policy journalists, etc) saying that they think Russia's military looks weaker than expected - their attack has not been as all out as people thought it might be and there are reports of Russian soldiers abandoning tanks at the border and deserting. Also rumours that many of the soldiers in the area are young conscripts with little experience.

The suggestion is that Putin was banking on Ukraine waving the white flag pretty quickly, if they fight back with any real intent then they could well push them back.

twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1496791276179660803?s=20&t=7kNAZ7ce2GNZqnDAzk9dcQ

twitter.com/AVindman/status/1496828413935562757?s=20&t=7kNAZ7ce2GNZqnDAzk9dcQ[/quote]
Most positive thing I’ve read all day.

Marigold I hope that's true but I don't really want to have to find out if you're wrong! In reality I guess there is no point worrying, no matter what happens it is entirely out of our hands.

I wish I wasn't pregnant during this though. We do live in the sticks and I'm having nightmares of some apocalyptic world with two very small children. I think I'd rather be wiped out by the blast.

Localised, no.
WW3, probably not.

Something spreading to more or Eastern Europe, possibly.

Nobody knows and that’s the fear factor.
Putin knew what he was doing pre-recorded videos and is now safely in a nice cozy bunker probably. Mad Mann for a PR stunt - most likely PR stunt to keep everyone second guessing.

Who knows what will happen - the only thing that we can sadly bet on is innocent people will die - what that number will be is 1 too many for me :(

YABU. Putin is a raving loony AND she has the power to send a nuclear bomb to London or Washington.

Who knows what will happen - the only thing that we can sadly bet on is innocent people will die

Yep Always is. The normal people who just want to live normal lives, losing everything because of power hungry men who will rarely be the ones to actually suffer the consequences.

Putin has been playing war with his neighbours on for YEARS!!
The difference now is that
a) the Ukraine has vast valuable resources
b) the Ukraine wanted to join NATO for protection

So are we looking at WW3? ... let's see what the tarot cards say as my crystal ball is a bit unpredictable.

OP, MI5 is this you? 👀

WW1 and WW2 started with localised wars.

This has the potential to be disastrous.

Hitler invaded only Poland to start with.

I'm pretty sure it was Austria first wasn't it? Which Europe looked very much the other way from! 'We' only started getting pissy after he moved on to Poland too.

@notsurehowtostop

The normal people who just want to live normal lives, losing everything because of power hungry men who will rarely be the ones to actually suffer the consequences.

That's the thing! I've seen posts with people saying 'We can flatten Moscow in a matter of hours!'. Maybe we can, but SOME people (yes, looking at you there Putin!) have a conscience and don't feel they can go round mass-murdering innocent civilians.

@TheRealityCheque

To wish people would stop conflating the Ukrainian invasion with WW3.

It's shite and completely unacceptable and my thoughts are with thee innocent people affected but it is not a world war and isn't going to become one.

IABU - WW3 is here
IANBU - it's a localised war.

What you talking about Willis?

@Sirzy

I think it has the potential to become much bigger than just a localised war. Putin doesn’t seem to care what happens in persuit of what he wants and that is worrying.

This

This screenshot of my active convos sums up this thread!

It's not WW3 yet but major conflicts tend to spring from minor ones. Russia won't be satisfied with Ukraine, they want to restore all the former USSR countries to their control. Either as formally part of Russia or as a puppet state like Belarus.

NATO doesn't need to send troops to defend Ukraine but once Russia moves into NATO countries it will feel forced to.

Whether it becomes WW3 or not is really up to Russia. If they fancy a total war and start making strikes against NATO countries that they're not invading, we'd have to retaliate in kind and bomb Russia.

I think

First they came for the Communists, and I did not speak out because I was not a Communist

Then they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out because I was not a Socialist

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out because I was not a trade unionist

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out because I was not a Jew

^Then they came for me, and there was no one left to speak out for me6

Replace each of those categories with the various ex USSR states - Putin already tried on with Georgia, now he's after Ukraine, next it'll be Latvia or somewhere else, then Germany, France, and he'll eventually get to Kent.

In 1914 before WW1 ' it'll all be over by Christmas '
August 1939 , 'there won't be a war' ..
People have been getting lots wrong for centuries and many predicted that Putin was unstable years ago.
Dread to think how this will end.

Well they're (allegedly) fighting over Chernobyl now. That would probably imply Putin giving zero fucks. YABU

@Sirzy

I think it has the potential to become much bigger than just a localised war. Putin doesn’t seem to care what happens in persuit of what he wants and that is worrying.

Agree to some extent. But I also think that's why he won't go too far. He can't and won't win. For Putin domination and power important. So e eye ring something he'll lose is unlikely.

I thought he said Russian forces had just driven in across the Chernobyl region (as well as from all other directions) because the Chernobyl area is unguarded.

I think if I had faith in the rest of the world governments I would say YANBU but I have absolutely no faith in other world leaders at the moment so YABU. BJ sounds like he's ready to go to war the way he's talking.