To admit I have no idea wtf is going on with Russia and the

[Dustlandcinderella]

I follow the news and can see that There is a lot about Russia and the Ukraine. But I can’t quite figure out what is happening , what the background is, and what the truth is (bearing in mind in any war there is propaganda on each side).

Am I the only person who doesn’t actually understand what’s going on

I think that the west being absolute idiots over this crisis to be honest.

Putin has been saying for months and months and months that he doesn't want NATO warheads in Ukraine - it is like the Cuban Missile Crisis in reverse, US kicked up a stonk about Russian missiles on Cuba because it was so close, Russian is kicking up a stonk about missiles in Ukraine because it is so close - nothing has been done about it, no solutions offered.

The diplomatic solution surely is to agree that NATO and all member states will not be in Ukraine unless Russia invades Ukraine

And secondly the Minsk peace agreement - if you watch the interviews and discussions with Putin, Ukrainian journos, UK journos, Macron, Japan, yadayada over the last few years it appears that the Russia has been the one calling upon the international community to ensure compliance with the agreement, and most ministers from NATO member states (including Truss...) don't even know what it says. The breakaway states Putin has gone into - Putin has been warning for a long time that Ukraine has been breaching the MA and using brute force there and no one has been paying much attention.

Diplomatic solution: member states of NATO read MA and go into negotiations a bit more informed than they were before and go into discussions with Putin and Ukraine about the same.

Putin has said that NATO said in 1990s that it wouldn't expand into the East but since then has expanded 4 times each time futher towards Russia

Socks , at one point When it looked like Russia might have a chance at democracy pre Putin they actually asked to be a part of NATO!
So what does it matter how close NATO gets except to an autocrat dictator

@Tigersonvaseline what horrors do you mean?

I just looked at Statista (statistics organisation founded in Germany) and on Putin they write:

"Vladimir Putin's approval rating in Russia monthly 1999-2022
Published by Statista Research Department, Feb 4, 2022
In January 2022, about 70 percent of Russians approved of activities of the Russian president Vladimir Putin. The popularity level saw an increase from the previous month. During the COVID-19 lockdown in the spring of 2020, the rating declined, before increasing again in the late summer of that year.
What shifted Putin’s approval rating?
Since his first presidential term started in 2000, Vladimir Putin's highest approval rating was measured at 88 percent, when he was the country's prime minister. In 2008, as a result of the war with Georgia, Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In 2014, Russia annexed the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, viewing it as a historic reunification. Despite Western sanctions that were imposed on the country in response the violation of territorial integrity of Ukraine, the approval rating remained high over the following years. In February and March 2019, among the reasons behind the decline in approval were a pension reform and a retirement age hike.
What awaits Russia after 2024?
During his state of-the-nation speech in January 2020, Vladimir Putin suggested amendments to the Russian Constitution, some of which are aimed at restructuring the executive power within the country’s administration. Regarding the amendments, 47 percent of Russians believed that they were designed to prepare the political system for the period after 2024, allowing Putin to stay in power in a role different from a president. In March 2020, an amendment was proposed to the Constitution to reset the previous presidential terms of Putin, allowing him to stay as a president until 2036. The amendments were approved in an all-Russian voting with nearly 78 percent of Russians supporting them"

Also tiger if you watch the Putin interviews from the last few years, with various international leaders and journos, on youtube, he does in fact consistently talk about peace and negotiation. And wanting to be partners with US. It is not surprising at all that he wanted to be part of NATO and if that is correct it is not surprising at all that if he is not part of NATO he doesn't want their warheads Ukraine! This whole thing stinks of incompetence.

Either incompetence or gas.

PS other commentary on the approval rating is that Putin's popularity has been in connection with improved living standards in Russia

I don't know how to respond sock and I don't want to spam the thread with endless links.

Are the Russian people allowed to speak out with criticism against the regime? Or is it a political crime?
Are elections fair and democratic?

Key events (hugely simplified):

1933 Adolf Hitler takes power in Germany, with a policy of gaining "lebensraum" (living space for Germans).

1937-1938 Hitler declares that various states are full of oppressed Germans, and takes them over with little recourse from Western powers. (note the similarity to Putin)

1939 Germany invades Poland and WW2 begins. Both Russia and Germany take over Eastern Europe.

1941 After having agreed with Stalin to share the spoils in Eastern Europe, Hitler turns on Russia and nearly defeats them, getting to within miles of Moscow.

1944-1945 Fortunes have now turned and Russia slowly makes its way through Eastern Europe, taking over in these countries. The Allies agree to split both Berlin and Germany. Allied areas are free to embrace democracy, whilst Russian areas were run by Communists in deference to Moscow.

1949 NATO is formed to protect Western European Countries against further Soviet aggression. It is an agreement that if any country is attacked, all members must defend that nation. This is part of the cold war.

1988-1991 The USSR collapses, and all the countries occupied by the USSR in 1945 gain independence. Ukraine also gains independence, and agrees to give up Nuclear weapons if Russia promises to respect its sovereignty.

1991 onward: Former Soviet countries look increasingly to the West, joining both NATO and/or the EU and embracing democracy. Russia becomes an oligarchy, eventually to be led by Putin. Putin slowly takes on the role of dictator, destroying democracy. Putin want to regain some of the "glory" of the USSR, looking to retake places like Georgia and Ukraine.

2014 Russia invades Crimea, part of Ukraine and takes it over.

In Ukraine there are still some areas that are somewhat Russian speaking, and have independence movements, backed by Russian money. Putin last night declared these regions as independent, and has moved in troops to guarantee their independence, in effect annexing them.

@Tigersonvaseline

I don't know how to respond sock and I don't want to spam the thread with endless links.

Are the Russian people allowed to speak out with criticism against the regime? Or is it a political crime?
Are elections fair and democratic?

No, elections are not free and fair.

Speaking out is unwise. Media is state controlled.

@Tigersonvaseline

I don't know how to respond sock and I don't want to spam the thread with endless links.

Are the Russian people allowed to speak out with criticism against the regime? Or is it a political crime?
Are elections fair and democratic?

Statista is international but founded in Germany - why would they be presenting that information as fact? If you don't want to post links, what are your sources?

I am not suggesting that there is nothing wrong with how Putin operates, but there are two clear items on the table around this crisis - if people make this about us going into a righteous war to topple a despotic leader, they are asking for war which is exactly what we don't want.

We have not yet had ww3 because of diplomacy, diplomacy is what is needed, not to make this about personalities.

[quote socksnjumpers]@Tigersonvaseline what horrors do you mean?

I just looked at Statista (statistics organisation founded in Germany) and on Putin they write:

"Vladimir Putin's approval rating in Russia monthly 1999-2022
Published by Statista Research Department, Feb 4, 2022
In January 2022, about 70 percent of Russians approved of activities of the Russian president Vladimir Putin. The popularity level saw an increase from the previous month. During the COVID-19 lockdown in the spring of 2020, the rating declined, before increasing again in the late summer of that year.
What shifted Putin’s approval rating?
Since his first presidential term started in 2000, Vladimir Putin's highest approval rating was measured at 88 percent, when he was the country's prime minister. In 2008, as a result of the war with Georgia, Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In 2014, Russia annexed the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, viewing it as a historic reunification. Despite Western sanctions that were imposed on the country in response the violation of territorial integrity of Ukraine, the approval rating remained high over the following years. In February and March 2019, among the reasons behind the decline in approval were a pension reform and a retirement age hike.
What awaits Russia after 2024?
During his state of-the-nation speech in January 2020, Vladimir Putin suggested amendments to the Russian Constitution, some of which are aimed at restructuring the executive power within the country’s administration. Regarding the amendments, 47 percent of Russians believed that they were designed to prepare the political system for the period after 2024, allowing Putin to stay in power in a role different from a president. In March 2020, an amendment was proposed to the Constitution to reset the previous presidential terms of Putin, allowing him to stay as a president until 2036. The amendments were approved in an all-Russian voting with nearly 78 percent of Russians supporting them"[/quote]
Well if that isn't the most obvious start of an end-of-democracy dictatorship I don't know what is!

Are elections fair and democratic?

Ha! Look up Alexey Navalny.

if he is not part of NATO he doesn't want their warheads Ukraine!

Which NATO warheads/weapons system are people referring to with statements such as this?

There is literally nothing the Russian people can do, they can not protest or demonstrate their concerns. Russia is an autocracy. Putin does not answer to anyone.

I am listening to the sanctions discussion wondering how much of this is going to make any difference whatsoever, one can only feel that a few sanctions is rather like like running out into the firing line with a hairbrush. Surely a far more robust response is required, but how do we do that without triggering WW3.

This problem has been in the pipeline for years, if it had been addressed at the point of Crimea we may not be where we are today.

@starfro I asked about the NATO agreements from the 1990s?

I cannot fathom why you think that list of dates is helpful. You have also left out what the US was like during the coldwar, how US communists were treated, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the behaviour of Nixon generally. All this "Putin is evil" is not helpful at all. The crisis is over clear issues to do with security and the Minsk peace agreement - we should be focusing on that. There is no possibility we are going to topple the Russian leader without a lot of trouble affecting our day to day lives

My lodger is from Moscow. She tells me that it is common to fall out of high windows if you contradict the government. It happened to several doctors in the early days of the vaccine programme.

Genuine question: Do you think Putin is remotely interested in diplomacy?

I am not suggesting that there is nothing wrong with how Putin operates, but there are two clear items on the table around this crisis - if people make this about us going into a righteous war to topple a despotic leader, they are asking for war which is exactly what we don't want.

True.

Just because Putin is being unreasonable does not mean the West have beed reasonable.

So, if our government wanted to restrict Russian money in the U.K. as part of its sanctions, that could affect the housing market (amongst other markets, no?). If there is a risk of this, then the Tories are unlikely to do anything that will affect the housing market and so many of their key voters. So, instead sanctions will shift to imports only?

I am just trying to see how this could play out based on what risks the Tories are likely to do

@notimagain

if he is not part of NATO he doesn't want their warheads Ukraine!

Which NATO warheads/weapons system are people referring to with statements such as this?

If you look at the interviews on youtube, the weapons in question have been discussed endlessly. There is one from December which are specific about the weapons referring to them by name. What p*sses me off is that this is not directly being referred to by Biden and co, as clearly this is one of the key issues.

There is no possibility we are going to topple the Russian leader without a lot of trouble affecting our day to day lives

I think we have a far bigger problem if we do nothing personally. You deal with bullies by facing them down, when reasonable diplomacy fails the next stop is an ever increasing response that is unified and in line with the atrocities and genocide that could now happen in Ukraine, we need to take this very seriously, the gloves are off. We should stop pretending that Putin cares about solutions, and start looking more carefully at his planned end game.

Genuine question: Do you think Putin is remotely interested in diplomacy?

Not at the moment, I don't think. He's painted himself into a corner, with the West's help, and needs to save face.

Diplomacy is not A&E, it's the GP.

@notimagain and when i say interviews on youtube I am talking about official journalist interviews, news reports from official news agencies outside Russia, filmed interviews with other heads of state

You don't amass 190,000 soldiers and ballistic weapons if you are thinking diplomacy is the way forward.....you would have to be insane to not see this for what it is, a planned and organised invasion of an independent country to further Putin's imperial expansionist aims. He is getting away with it, because we have weak leadership from the west hellbent on avoiding confrontation at all costs.

He needs to be removed, and fast, quite how that happens is anyones guess.

[quote socksnjumpers]@notimagain and when i say interviews on youtube I am talking about official journalist interviews, news reports from official news agencies outside Russia, filmed interviews with other heads of state[/quote]
So to cut to the chase here am I right in thinking you’ve used the term warheads but you haven’t got the specifics to hand about which system(s) are involved…

There is no possibility we are going to topple the Russian leader without a lot of trouble affecting our day to day lives

Do we really want to do that? We have toppled some dictators, Saddam, Ceausescu, Gaddafi come to mind and look just how well we did. Do you want an utterly lawless Russia? With their arsenal of every weapon possible? I know I don't.