@OrinocoGlow
You make good points RedToothBrush. I don't know the answers though. I have reservations about known positive cases mixing with other people for the obvious reasons but also see the issues with continuing to enforce isolation especially on more vulnerable people, including children at risk of harm. I wish we could trust the government to make well considered decisions in the best interests of the population but I don't think we can.
FWIW, DH is currently positive. I'm not.
We normally go to the pub on a Friday, and I could have gone last night. I think its a bit silly to do as I don't really need to. So beyond going to the supermarket (masked) and taking DS to school (masked) I've not done anything.
Even if I did test positive, and had to go to work, I think I would take the attitude of keeping movements outside the house to a minimum. Thats not saying I would 100% stay in - just that I perhaps have a rethink about what I absoluetely had to do. Thing is, if you feel like crap, you don't really want to go out anyway.
I think there might be more people with this mindset rather than thinking they will go out, party and socialise in as many busy places as they possibly could. In this sense, I don't think you'll get a massive increase in cases - because you are already infectious before you get symptoms / test positive in a lot of cases anyway - so the chances are you've already had a good opportunity to pass it on to anyone you work closely with anyway. (Also see my earlier point about schools).
This is where, masks in public places, being compulsory would actually be better now than some weeks ago too.
So I think rather than a cliff edge of things being 100% prepandemic over isolation, you will still see a gradual softing of behaviour and a certain amount of self limitation anyway. Not full on complete isolation but a certain more measured stepped behavioural change.
On a separate note:
I think the incoming political issues (massive cost of living increases and fuel poverty) are probably beyond the remit of SAGE too. The government know they are going to have to manage covid issues along side these growing fears. You risk a situation where you are more liable to get civil unrest, if you are also told you MUST isolate on top of that. Look at the freedom protests that are spring up all over the place. Ontario has an ongoing state of emergency over it. The government are protecting themselves by taking this into consideration, but unrest would definitely also risk other harms to the public (we really don't need something like another blockage which pushes up prices even further right now).
Financially the cost of isolation and asymptomatic testing is extortant. Someone has a spreadsheet adding up the cost of free tests and the cost of isolation sick pay next to a column looking at the cost of a benefit break for fuel price rises...
I try and be honest about where people's mindset now is and how much they are likely to tolerate and for how much longer. People will ultimately try and support others and be considerate as long as its not at too much cost to themselves, and as the cost to themselves increases they become much more hostile. If we didn't change anything in the next couple of months we will start to see other increasing problems. Life is going to get harder in other ways for a lot of people...
In terms of the actual figures, if you look at the number of positive cases, the spike for onicrom was very sharp upwards. Its not declining as fast, but there is a very marked difference between where we were and the trend (despite increasing non-compliance) is still significantly downward. Its a much steeper decline than previous waves. In the 7 days to the 7th Feb, most authorities saw a decline in cases by 20% over the week (and this trend is also reflected in hospitalisations and deaths so isn't due to people simply testing less). Its now 12th Feb so we are some days behind that point. If the trend continues - and its likely to increase in the % of decline, over the next couple of weeks - we are likely to be starting to see rates of around 200 per 100,000 in a large percentage of the country by the time the rule change kicks in. We've had rates of well over 2000 just a few weeks back.
At that point, yes a relaxing of the rules again starts to look much more reasonable.
One of the things has been precisely that the omicron spike hasn't been as high as anticipated, so moving things forward doesn't sound crazy. Unfortunately this has also markedly reduced the credibility and influence of those voices wanting to maintain restrictions - including from scientists too. But as it standards the numbers may not be great, but the direction of travel, also doesn't give the level of cause for concern that others are suggesting either.
And thats produced another unavoidable reality:
From a purely political POV, Johnson hasn't got a hope in hell in getting an extension past the late March renewal date as things stand politically - we won't get a successor before then even if he were to quit next week. There are too many Tories who want to axe the measures now. I think to an extent, Johnson's announcement is an acknowledgement of that political reality, rather than him doing it purely to 'save himself'. I don't think any potential successor will go on record staying keep the rule legal, beyond that point either. This isn't merely fall out from 'partygate' despite what many people will try and tell you. The political shift on this was already in progress pre-Christmas.
I think I'd probably be happier with a couple more weeks of isolation - but I've said that before on the last two occasions and suspect thats my more cautious nature to do that (I know plenty of people on this thread will consider me utterly reckless but I'm really not).
However we roll back, whenever we do it, its going to cause huge amounts of anxiety for lots of people.
I think I am slightly more hesitate in terms of whether I think this will stay permenant. There are definitely scenarios where I think a screaming u-turn could happen. But most likely not for some months. And I think covid has really shown we need to make the most of things whilst we can to a greater or less degree.
Yes the decision is partly political, but I also think we are running out of road in terms of options generally anyway and the political landscape is such that its not happening purely for the benefit of Johnson either.
The public mood is shifting, and that shift is going to accelerate in the coming weeks towards the same thing anyway. I think there is a certain sense of trying to predict how quickly this is going to happen, and trying to get ahead of it.