To think this death stat has to be bollocks?

[WeirdArchitecture]

That "double jabbed people are 4 times more likely to die of covid than non vaccinated"
Just read this in a thread on the covid section.
True or false?
If false, where are people getting these figures from?
(I can link to the page if anyone wishes)

Yeah right we are, NOT

Of course it’s true.

You would actually want the proportion of the dying who are vaccinated to go up over time as it means more people are getting vaccinated.

Think about it

Jesus Christ.

I haven't checked the figures, but if they do bear this out, then it's likely to be because vaccination was rolled out to the most vulnerable first and down to the least vulnerable.

I hid the Covid section months ago. I highly recommend it. Keep all the batshit crazies behind a door

@MistyMorns

Of course it’s true.

You would actually want the proportion of the dying who are vaccinated to go up over time as it means more people are getting vaccinated.

Think about it

Exactly. If you look at the figures you ll probably find that most people dying of heart attacks, stroke, cancer and falling down the stairs are double jabbed as well. Because most older people are jabbed and these are the people most likely to die from any cause.

It is a flawed analysis based on cherry picked figures which neglects that the majority of cases are unvaccinated kids teenagers under 30s etc. One illustration I saw was thinking about more like this - a vaxxed 70 years old might have similar risk to an unvaxxed 59 years old.

A proper comparison is done by the phe which adjust for ages underlying conditions etc which suggests hospitalisations is reduced by something like 8 and death by more.

I mean we have 30 odd thousand cases a day and just over a 100 deaths a day compared to probably around a 1000 without vaccines

I work in care and guess what all vaccinated, most have had covid and survived.

I understand the points made here.
What is annoying is that some are using this and twisting it to deter others from getting vaccinated. I mean why would you bother to even do that?

This is the page in question: www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4339702-No-vaccines-for-healthy-12-15-Yr-olds?pg=15

It's just an illustration of the old maxim - statistics prove that statistics prove nothing.

The quote is second from the bottom on the page I linked.

The thread is about DC not adults. Bodies are different as they age and the JCVI are recommending vaccinations for 18yr plus, but the risk vs. benefit analysis is different for children.

Having said that, while I won't get my DC vaccinated I think the message should be reiterated that adults need regular vaccination for covid now.

I don’t understand

There is a big difference between saying 80% of deaths are now in vaccinated people (which may be true, I have no idea), and saying that an individual who is double vaccinated has four times the risk of death of an unvaccinated person after adjustment for age, gender and comorbidities. I’m not sure if the poster on the previous thread is a bit thick and doesn’t understand that difference, or if they are shit-stirring.

4 times as many vaccinated people are dying as unvaccinated ≠ vaccinated are 4 times as likely to die, because there are far more vaccinated people than unvaccinated. Vaccination reduces but does not eliminate the chance of infection and death, which means as more people get vaccinated, a certain proportion of them will still die, and eventually that number will overtake the number of unvaccinated people dying just due to numbers.

So say 1% of unvaccinated people die and 0.5% of vaccinated (not real statistics, I just made them up for the sake of explanation). 1000 people get infected, of whom 80% are vaccinated. Out of 800 vaccinated people, 4 died. Out of 200 unvaccinated people, 2 died. This is less than the number of vaccinated people who died, but only because there are far fewer unvaccinated people.

They’ve just twisted the figures. More of the vulnerable people will be vaccinated. Unfortunately they are more likely to die. Kids are unvaccinated and have only a minute risk of dying.

I’m not vaccinated but fully accept that I would be at less risk of I was vaccinated. Vaccines work.

People either genuinely don’t understand statistics or they’re deliberately spreading misinformation. If you think it’s the latter ask for mumsnet to take a look.

@user1745

4 times as many vaccinated people are dying as unvaccinated ≠ vaccinated are 4 times as likely to die, because there are far more vaccinated people than unvaccinated. Vaccination reduces but does not eliminate the chance of infection and death, which means as more people get vaccinated, a certain proportion of them will still die, and eventually that number will overtake the number of unvaccinated people dying just due to numbers.

So say 1% of unvaccinated people die and 0.5% of vaccinated (not real statistics, I just made them up for the sake of explanation). 1000 people get infected, of whom 80% are vaccinated. Out of 800 vaccinated people, 4 died. Out of 200 unvaccinated people, 2 died. This is less than the number of vaccinated people who died, but only because there are far fewer unvaccinated people.

makes sense, yes, but the poster obviously didnt intend to clarify that detail. I guess it's all in the phrasing......Noticed a lot of this on MN recently, it's true the covid board is a bit chaotic!

The figures for deaths only measure the number of people who die within 28 days of having a positive Covid test.

The vaccines do not completely stop infections and transmissions though they do stop cases of Covid infection getting really serious.

It is quite normal, in non-Pandemic times, for about 1700 people to die every day in the UK. The majority of these will be among thr frail and elderly, the vast majority of whom are vaccinated.

They are not dying of Covid, they are dying with Covid, but of ome of the myriad of other conditions which has brought them to the end of their natural life span. The Covid will alnost certainly have made their condition worse than it might have otherwise been, but the vaccine will have mitigated that effect significantly.

And none of this has any bearing whatsoever on the question of whether that means healthy younger people should get vaccinated. To know that you need to analyse the statistics in a lot more depth, looking at the death and serious illness rates in each demographic cohort and also normalising for comorbid conditions and comparing between vaccinated anx unvaccinated in each subset. That data clearly shows that it is definitely beneficial for everyone over the age of 18 to be vaccinated and probably mostly beneficial for 16 and 17 year olds to be vaccinated. That has been proven rigorously.

Although the vaccine has been classed as safe and effective for 12-15 year olds it is less clear cut that it will be beneficial for them because the real rate of death or serious illness from Covid is so tiny that the small risks of side effects from the vaccine are not necessarily justified on purely medical grounds. The balance of risk vs benefit does shift significantly if you also take into account the disruption to education and everything else in life that continues to be the major cause of suffering for this age group in the pandemic, ao of vaccination fir this age group would make a serious difference to the magnitude of those disruptions then it becomes definitely beneficial. However the amount of difference it will make can only be judged in the context of knowing what public health policy will be so it can't be judged by medics.

@Changechangychange

There is a big difference between saying 80% of deaths are now in vaccinated people (which may be true, I have no idea), and saying that an individual who is double vaccinated has four times the risk of death of an unvaccinated person after adjustment for age, gender and comorbidities. I’m not sure if the poster on the previous thread is a bit thick and doesn’t understand that difference, or if they are shit-stirring.

Agree with this. Its probably a bit of both

Why are you sharing this shite from the Covid topic? Most people have it hidden for a reason.

@HeartsAndClubs

Why are you sharing this shite from the Covid topic? Most people have it hidden for a reason.

im not a regular on the covid topic. I couldnt give a shite if you have it hidden. but next time I have a question about something, I will make sure to ask your permission first!

I think it's probably true because:

-most people are vaxed, so there is a bigger pool from which vaxed people can die
-almost all older pey are vaxed, and Covid kills mainly older people

I guy it is misleading, but it does seem the jab isn't really working as thought in terms of speed at which immunity.is lost.

As others have said, it depends exactly what is meant by what was posted. For a statistic to be reliable, the data has to be good quality, repeatable, as in if different studies are conducted they get similar results, and based on representative populations.

The BBC programme More or Less (available as a podcast and highly recommended) considers a lot of widely reported statistics and basically debunks most of them, because they've been misinterpreted, over exaggerated, ignored a much bigger risk if you didn't do the thing that is being talked about as being highly dangerous, or only apply in certain circumstances.

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02nrss1/episodes/downloads

It also explains how sampling a non representative group of people and extrapolating to the population at large can give very misleading data. See any thread on here about household income, which would lead you to believe that the average household income is well into six figures and everyone has at least two degrees.

It reminds me a bit of some flawed research about left-handers in the early 90s. The researchers found that left-handers died a lot younger than right-handlers. The research was published in loads of respected journals. But they’d made a quite similar statistical mistake. Just goes to show how careful you have to be with stats!

www.bbc.com/news/magazine-23988352

It could be a true statistic, but a huge misinterpretation of it. Firstly, they're most likely using the "positive covid test within 28 days of death" figure which doesn't mean they died of covid. That figure includes people who had very mild symptoms or even people who were asymptomatic. You can still get covid and test positive but die from something else entirely. This is more likely if you are older. And the double jabbed population is still massively skewed by age.

Secondly the probability of dying from covid was massively higher as age increased and vaccination is not 100% effective. Made up figures here, but let's say the chance of an 80 year old dying if they got covid was 20% and for a 25 year old it was 0.2%. If vaccine reduces the death risk by 90% then the probability of dying for the 80 year old drops to 2%...which is still 10x higher than the 25 year old. As I say figures made up but from memory the difference was in that kind of order of magnitude.