To think this death stat has to be bollocks?

[WeirdArchitecture]

That "double jabbed people are 4 times more likely to die of covid than non vaccinated"
Just read this in a thread on the covid section.
True or false?
If false, where are people getting these figures from?
(I can link to the page if anyone wishes)

There’s a good explanation of this paradox on the FT website. “The more people you vaccinate, the higher their share of hospitalisations, but the total number in hospital is a fraction of what it would otherwise be.”

Almost 90% of the adult population are double jabbed.

Death rates aren't only going to be in the 10% who aren't especially as it's those who statistically lower risk.

The jabs are not 100% effective as no jab is.

The statistics that tell us how effective the jabs are are the R number remaining steady (or not!) without it lockdown restrictions and the case fatality rate which has dropped a lot.

When we had cases as high as we do daily now back in January out nhs was overwhelmed and we went into lockdown.

It's still very endemic in the country but that should burn out as it spreads through the population - but it can't spread through 'safely' as such because of the nature of this virus and the dreadful affects it has on some people.

Ok so I was vaccinated in France and have the French “tous anti Covid” app on my phone, which gives lots of data about the cases (I last updated the app 22 August)
So in France, per 100,000, there were 409 non-vaccinated positive cases as opposed to 50 vaccinated positive cases and in intensive care, per 1 million people, 33.64 unvaccinated people were admitted as opposed to 3.41 vaccinated (all data was for 22 August).

Roughly speaking it looks like if you are unvaccinated your chance of being infected and or going into intensive care is 8 - 10 times higher then if you are vaccinated.

I’d rather be vaccinated and reduce risk of serious illness by at least factor of 8

Oh and vaccination coverage was 77%

@walksen

It is a flawed analysis based on cherry picked figures which neglects that the majority of cases are unvaccinated kids teenagers under 30s etc. One illustration I saw was thinking about more like this - a vaxxed 70 years old might have similar risk to an unvaxxed 59 years old.

A proper comparison is done by the phe which adjust for ages underlying conditions etc which suggests hospitalisations is reduced by something like 8 and death by more.

I mean we have 30 odd thousand cases a day and just over a 100 deaths a day compared to probably around a 1000 without vaccines

The post the OP is referring to I think is yours from that page. But as others have said, all that those figures mean is that if 100% are vaccinated, then 100% of people who die will have been vaccinated (for example) which unfortunately gives the svivel-headed conspiracy theorists a field day as they turn that into (probably) "everyone who gets the vaccine will die!"

"The post the OP is referring to I think is yours from that page."

You think wrong. It was posted by a pp and I added a question about his interpretation which is when that pp came up with the x4 comment

It's because the vast majority of people are now double jabbed and it's skewed towards the most vulnerable. Just like with flu, if you are vulnerable even if you are vaccinated you can still get what, that would be mild in others, but is fatal. The vaccine really helps l, the stats prove it but it's not 10O%.

My husband is an intensive care doctor, currently they’ve got a few Covid sufferers in and they’re all unvaccinated.

Go and get the vaccination!

it's an example of false correlation

Need to use the right denominator, the vaccine massively reduces risk of death.

Suppose 10 million vulnerable people have the vaccine
but 200,000 vulnerable people don't have jab
1% of the vaccinated 10 million get covid anyway, of whom 1% die -> 1000
20% of the unvaccinated 200k get covid, of whom 1% die, = 400 died

"More vaccinated people died" but only 0.01% of the vaccinated died, while 0.2% of the non-vaccinated died. So being vaccinated was very protective, hugely reduced the risk of covid-linked death.

This a bullshit statistic, along with ‘vaccinated people are 30 times more likely to catch COVID’. It fails to take into account the fact that there are thousands and thousands more vaccinated people than unvaccinated people. People who are vaccinated do still die. But far, far fewer people. If you want proof it works, look at the number of cases per hundred thousand in your area last week, and the number of deaths. Then look back at last year, to a time when there was a similar rate of infection, and look at the number of deaths. It’ll be massively higher. I work in a hospital. When we had a similar number of COVID patients last year, people were dying every day. Now it’s one or two a week. All this antivaxx bollocks is doing is delaying the roll out of boosters, and if Israel’s situation shows us anything, it’s that boosters are essential.

side issue, but where is the covid topic? can’t find it!

Most adults are now vaccinated so this makes total sense. It’s the same as saying people who have had the MMR vaccine are 10 times more likely to die than those who haven’t, it’s purely because most have had that vaccine and nothing to do with the vaccine itself.

Thinking about it of course vaccinated people will die.
The truth is they were probably be ill already and coincidentally have caught covid too.
Remember anyone testing positive for covid within 28 days of dying will have covid on their death certificate.
It's like saying this person was killed in a car crash but when tested for covid tested positive, so covid will be on their death certificate and recorded in the official figures.

If you are 80 and vaccinated you are more likely to die than an unvaccinated 30 year old, having the vaccination doesn't make you immortal though some here seem to think it does,

And this thread should be in the covid section which OP knows exists because they reference it

@Cabbagewhites

side issue, but where is the covid topic? can’t find it!

It's in the Health section

It's strange to me how, rather than do any research, so many posters are quick to say, "Well, it MUST be nonsense because..."

Why not look it up first? I'm not trying to be harsh, but just worries me that so many people bury their heads in the sand at the first sight of a scary statistic.

Let's give an example using made up numbers.

In our population of 100000 people, 5% are not vaccinated. So 5000 people not vaccinated, 95000 people vaccinated.

In our made up pandemic, 10% of unvaccinated people will die, but only 1% of vaccinated people will die.

(Worth remembering that no vaccination is 100% effective, but as our made up statistics show, they vastly reduce your chance of death).

So 10% of 5000 = 500 dead.
1% of 95000 = 950.

Total dead = 1450. 65.5% vaccinated. 34.5% unvaccinated.

Covid conspiracy theorist: "See! These figures show that almost twice as many vaccinated people die as unvaccinated!".

Difficult to look up because the poster in question didn't link to anything. I know for sure that it doesn't mean what it purports to mean because I've looked at all the other stats which clearly show that vaccination massively reduces, but does not eliminate, risk of death from Covid.

Back of the envelope maths suggests that the figure is probably about correct, because the majority of the unvaccinated will be healthy under thirties, whose base risk of dying of Covid is hundreds of times less than the over eighties who make up the majority of Covid deaths. Even if the vaccines are 95% effective that still makes an unvaccinated 18 year old far less at risk than their vaccinated fifty year old parent or eighty year old grandparent.

And to that you can add the "death within 28 days" factor, which is not a huge driver but enormously more likely to affect a seventy-something than a twenty-something. But without any source for the stats we don't know whether that's even a factor.

Imagine I have 10 dice.

Green dice have a dot on 1 side.

Red dice have dot on 3 sides.

I have 9 green dice and 1 red dice.

If I throw all 10 dice, I’m more like to get a dot come up from one of the green dice than the red dice.

If I said you have to pick one dice and I will take £10 off you if you throw a dot, are you going to pick a green one or the red one?

The green dice, collectively, have a greater likelihood of throwing a dot because there more of them. But individually, the green dice have much less chance of coming up on a dot then a red dice. If you want to reduce your chance of losing £10 you’d pick a green dice every time.

Substitute dice with people, green for vaccinated and red for unvaccinated, dots for death and that’s what’s happening.

It's not just that Fishflinger. Because in your analysis the green dice may have only one dot, but some of them are also loaded to land on that result, whereas the red ones are fair.

At an individual level, you're much less likely to die if you are double jabbed.

At a population level, as the percentage of double jabbed people increases and the percentage of unvaccinated people decreases, it's inevitable that a growing proportion of the total deaths will be in double jabbed individuals.

It's a pity that some people appear to lack the basic intelligence to understand this simple logic, especially if it then impacts on their decisions regarding the vaccination. Natural selection in action, I guess.

@WeirdArchitecture

That "double jabbed people are 4 times more likely to die of covid than non vaccinated" Just read this in a thread on the covid section. True or false? If false, where are people getting these figures from? (I can link to the page if anyone wishes)

It's a misunderstanding of the data. (Goodness knows there's enough of those around, in all sorts of ways.)

I assume the poster was basing this on four times as many vaccinated people dying (in some time period) than non-vaccinated, which I haven't checked, but sounds possible.

However, remember who is fully vaccinated - almost all the over 80s, and a good proportion of the over 50s. So, in the groups who make up the vast majority of Covid deaths, something like 90% are fully vaccinated.

If the vaccine made no difference, we would expect 9 out of 10 deaths to be in the fully vaccinated. What we're seeing is less than that (4 times as many would mean 8 out of 10 deaths in the fully vaccinated).

Even that back of the envelope calculation leaves out that people with who are very vulnerable to Covid in other age groups are also more likely to be fully vaccinated, which would mean the expected figure for deaths in the vaccinated group would be slightly higher. There are other things going on as well - what I've put is a very simplified version, but hopefully it makes sense and is helpful.

@walksen

"The post the OP is referring to I think is yours from that page."

You think wrong. It was posted by a pp and I added a question about his interpretation which is when that pp came up with the x4 comment

Fair enough. No need to snark. There's a quote function active on MN which helps to avoid confusion. Otherwise the standard protocol since about 2001 is to bold or put in quotation marks. I am perfectly capable of seeing you're not on our very favourite cherry-picking anti-vaxxer's side of the fence, but others may not be.

@AlexaShutUp

At an individual level, you're much less likely to die if you are double jabbed.

At a population level, as the percentage of double jabbed people increases and the percentage of unvaccinated people decreases, it's inevitable that a growing proportion of the total deaths will be in double jabbed individuals.

It's a pity that some people appear to lack the basic intelligence to understand this simple logic, especially if it then impacts on their decisions regarding the vaccination. Natural selection in action, I guess.

It's the way the anti-vaxxers lift stats which seem to prove their point sadly.