That New Zealand's strategy has failed

[JudesBiggestFan]

And they will have to start the long and painful process of learning to live with Covid? I spoke to my friend in NZ earlier and he was in shock at being back in lockdown. He said they really felt they'd defeated the virus and this has just come out of nowhere. I feel for him but an airborne virus...it can't be stopped. And the cost of trying is too high. Or do they still have a chance of beating the virus?

As I said above, I do think New Zealand have done brilliantly and that although they’ve got a challenge ahead on opening the borders, it’s a manageable one.

Can I ask a genuine question for the Kiwis on the thread? Given the current state of vaccine efficacy vs Delta it seems inevitable that once you open the borders your entire population will eventually get Covid 19 and up to 1,000 people will die of it (vs the 20,000 plus who would have died if you’d opened earlier). Is that something that will be politically acceptable to the population?

What I can't understand is why they didn't take advantage of closed boarders get the vaccines rolled out swiftly to protect nationals, why only 20%?! Is it availability or take up, does anyone know?

The NZ posters on this thread have answered this numerous times.

@CheekyHobson

Is #nodebate normally how you deal with different opinions on an online discussion forum?

No, normally I'm very happy to engage with dissenting opinions. But the post I was replying to was nothing more than speculative condescension based on an embarrassing level of ignorance. Not an opinion so much as a fantasy dressed up as expertise.

That must narrow down the pool of potential debaters somewhat. Most people argue from a point of ignorance. The skill is in framing your own argument so that that becomes obvious.

I find Jacinda's politics refreshing, but she is a still politician. The strategy hasn't failed - Covid is Covid, but it did get whipped up into some holy grail of wonder things and the media and public love to raise someone up them tear them down. The vaccinations strategy is working as planned given that NZ went for Pfizer NOT AZ and got the bulk shipment in July, so 33% is good, with it being ramped up from now _ I get mine this week. Also given the Pfizer vaccine has a shorter timeframe between both doses, NZ is ultimatley still at the same pace for population completeion as the rest of the OECD countries.

NZs advantage has been its isolation. It’s completely out on a limb at the end of the world. Plus it has a tiny population. The whole thing is generally easier to manage there

You can make that argument for NZ but what about many SE Asian countries who have also managed CV significantly better than Europe/USA ? Inc Japan, 15k deaths, 7 day average 24 deaths pop. 126million.

@stepupandbecounted

All countries have made mistakes, UK included, but I don't think you can lock up your people indefinitely relying on scientists producing a magical cure for your people on the other side of the world. It is a life sentence that you are not really acknowledging, choosing to believe it is 'just for now'.

It is not just for now, this is it, and I am sorry it that hurts and you don't want to hear it, but we are stuck with covid indefinitely. Zero covid does not exist, and will never exist. I wish you all a safe passage out of this quagmire and hope some of you will at least consider the possibility of a middle road.

The uk was locked up way way way more than we've ever been.

Just because the uk have become desensitised to high death rates doesn't mean everyone else has, or wants to.

'Tbf, I think the ones that went out of their way to broadcast their success on websites hosted in other countries while their hospitals were heaving and many people were dying are of a particular mindset that doesn't represent the whole population of NZ.'

Yes let's hope so.

'The NZ posters on this thread have answered this numerous times.'

Oh I do apologise I skim read it 🙄. Perhaps rather than going to the trouble of telling me off you could have actually repeated the info, hmm?

@trancepants

There are a lot of reasons that NZ kept it's case so low. And yes, geographical location and population density played a part in that. But they also had a plan of action for novel diseases, years in the making, that they made a decision to put in place in January 3rd 2020. While the vast majority of the world wasn't paying the remotest bit of attention to events in Wuhan, the New Zealand government recognised the the potential danger and acted.

They had accessed their strengths and weaknesses and planned for them long in advance. And when news came of a new virus, they not only had a plan for how to handle it, they actually had the fucking ovaries to act immediately and put it in place. We can belittle their success all we want based on the advantages they had. But all European governments should have had similar plans in place, with our weaknesses and strengths in place. And they should have paid proper attention to what was happening in Wuhan, the fucking instant the Chinese government were willing to admit there was a problem.

And we can look at NZ and say, aw look, what a failure it's been. And yes, it's unfortunate timing for them that the Delta variant has gotten in now, before they have had time to put a proper vaccine programme in place. But they have saved thousands of lives, damaged their economies less and lived really normal lives for most of the last 18 months. Go back and look at the footage of the NYE celebrations in Christchurch. Look at the crowds on the streets singing and cheering. Then have a read of that night on Mumsnet. Think of the Christmas they had and the Christmas we had.

It honestly smacks of a really petulant need to feel a bit of schadenfruede out of jealousy because they managed better than us.

Spot on.

It's like people are delighted they're now struggling when they've done so much better to date keeping their citizens safe while they waited for their vaccines to be fully supplied.

Can I ask a genuine question for the Kiwis on the thread? Given the current state of vaccine efficacy vs Delta it seems inevitable that once you open the borders your entire population will eventually get Covid 19 and up to 1,000 people will die of it (vs the 20,000 plus who would have died if you’d opened earlier). Is that something that will be politically acceptable to the population?

This is a good question - I'd be interested in unpicking the stats though? I hadn't realised so many vaccinated people were dying of C19?

I’m not one for schadenfreude about anything, especially not covid.

Nevertheless, I would be interested if any of the NZ posters on here getting very hot under the collar were previously boasting about NZ’s success and “laughing” at the UK at the point we were wading through the worst of it.

If so, they are hypocrites.

Jesus Christ. Who now actually believes the vaccines are the cure all? No one here in the UK that is for sure. Please look at the facts.

You have an amazing ability to put up straw men in order to kick them down.

Nobody in New Zealand thinks the vaccine is a cure all. What we think – with solid scientific backing – is that it is far preferable to keep Covid completely out of the country ('zero Covid') until as much of the population as can reasonably be hoped for has had the opportunity to acquire some protection against serious illness and death via vaccination than it is to allow the virus to spread widely while the vaccination process is underway.

Not sure why this is such a baffling strategy to grasp.

Perhaps rather than going to the trouble of telling me off you could have actually repeated the info, hmm?

You expect someone to repeat things for your benefit rather than you reading what's already there?

I don't think I've ever boasted when the UK was down as well. Most NZers know people in the UK, and many have family there and have found the news quite distressing. Covid has only ever been a collective tragedy that we're all seeing different sides of. It's never been a competition.

I thought that the recent "roadmap" stated that the aim would be to continue with zero covid (I.e. stamp out cases as they come up) even with borders opening up. But as the NZ residents on here keep saying zero covid is only temporary, have I understand that wrong?

Its too early to say atm.

The NZ government are definitely under growing pressure as concern from the NZ public gets stronger and resentment of lockdowns will kick in.

As it stands cases are not expected to peak until Wed - Fri this week, after which they hope that the effect of the lockdown will kick in.

The real concern right now has to be that the number of cases detected is at the upper end of their modelling though. That either means that they've done really well on detecting a high percentage of cases or the case load is on the higher end and may be more widespread than they think.

I think there's two issues that are bothering the government. First is that Delta can be infectious within 24 hours of getting it, which means it is harder to track and trace and theyve been having problems getting details of where positive cases have been promptly as people have found it very distressing being diagnosed as covid positive and there have been lengthy queues of up to 9 hours just to get tested in some hot spots. This all slows the process down.

The good news is that they aren't seeing anything unexpected in the waste water suggesting that its spread beyond where they've found cases and they still are in a phase where theyve been able to connect all the cases together by contact. In other words they aren't seeing new clusters pop up which they don't know where they have come from.

From those two points of view things are still looking very good.

However its very much a case of the country holding its nerve. They haven't announced that the Auckland lockdown will be a few weeks yet, but that looks inevitable and thats when things will start to be tested.

There is only going to be so much good will from the public. Things like having to queue for hours to be tested and a prolonged lockdown will mean that the chances of cases being missed rise.

I think the South Island is likely to be ok. At least for the time being.

For the North Island I think things hang in the balance but you definitely can't yet say that the strategy has failed. It may be the case that it does prove to have failed but atm NZ aren't there yet.

I would be interested if any of the NZ posters on here getting very hot under the collar were previously boasting about NZ’s success and “laughing” at the UK at the point we were wading through the worst of it.

OMG why would anyone laugh at the UK when you were going through the worst of it?

The overwhelming reaction of the Kiwis I know here was horror at the widespread death, concern for the physical and mental health of the many friends and family we have in the UK, frustration at the UK government's flip-flopping decisions, poor communication, hypocrisy and tardy responses and relief that NZ's government had been able to implement a different strategy.

@AmorFati

The idea that we all live in hobbit holes spaced at a regulation distance (minimum 6 oliphaunt lengths apart) is one of my favourite myths about NZ.

Exactly! Auckland and Sydney are tiny cities but in their centres have higher population density than London

We have had a wonderful 6 months of living normally but unfortunately that resulted in many people going back to old ways and expecting it to be so forever.

Our government has been EXCELLENT clear comms and clear expectations. Snap lockdown immediately. However the 'normal life' we have had has resulted in many of us saying things like 'I'm not going anywhere, what's the rush to get a vaccine?' While sitting in crowed restaurants And not realising that if THIS happens we are screwed. The roll out has been PAINFULLY slow and thats disappointed me. They've gone full circle now though so it opened for 49 and above last week but also for everyone so now parents are taking their late teens with them and I (49) can't book in until October.

As of now the small place I live in has had a sudden rush on vaccine uptake. Good. The Maori and Pasifica populations less so.

I have elderly parents in the UK who I may never get to see unless we get our pop vaccinated and see Covid as 'just another flu'. Right now, with figures as they are I worry how we can ever open the borders. One case sends us over the edge. We can't live forever like this.

@TheStoic

Perhaps rather than going to the trouble of telling me off you could have actually repeated the info, hmm?

You expect someone to repeat things for your benefit rather than you reading what's already there?

Well if you cba to post 'that's been mentioned' surely you cba to say 'oh beacsue.. '. Or just don't bother posting at all, whatever

'You can make that argument for NZ but what about many SE Asian countries who have also managed CV significantly better than Europe/USA ? Inc Japan, 15k deaths, 7 day average 24 deaths pop. 126million.'

We had this all last year. Japan's leader admitted they did very little and put their success down to a 'superior mental attitude'. There is emerging evidence previous SARS exposure may have afforded them some immunity.

It is now dawning on Australia what their future looks like, and that is why there are huge protests, because some have taken a good look at reality and realised that this is going to be it, endless lockdowns, endlessly sealed away from the world and all for a virus that tends to choose the people most likely to die anyway (with a few rare exceptions) Almost all of my friends have had covid, and some have had it twice, none of us are afraid anymore. We have to learn to live with the virus. It really is as simple as that.

Yep, I agree. Covid isn't going anywhere. I wonder if the insults and anger from the people living in NZ on this thread are stemming from fear and a dawning realisation that zero covid will never happen.

Jesus you lot are fucking desperate to shit on other countries who haven't been destroyed like yours aren't you.

Descending into hyperbole like this! Do people in other countries honestly believe that our country and peoples lives within it have been destroyed? I'm quite happily living my normal life, just been on holiday to Spain and within the U.K, no masks now etc. I don't know anyone who has been very ill or died from covid, everyone who's had it, including myself and my dh/dc's has been fine.
I don't know anyone who's life is any different tbh - we're all happily getting on with things and are mostly double vaccinated. Ds17 just been invited for his first vaccine. We're off to Barbados in December.

And we won't be going into lockdown again.

I really hope everything works out in NZ and Oz - but mud slinging and getting nasty only shows your true colours and makes you seem scared. Also all the feigned happiness of being in lockdown again - it's ok to be angry you know!

I honestly hope we all come through this globally ASAP - it's futile to compare countries, it's like apples and oranges.

I have to say I’m a Brit and would take jacinda over boris any day of the week.

It is unfortunate in this time they couldn’t get the majority vaccinated. But vaccine roll out is the only thing the U.K. has got right - can’t help thinking it was because our inept government were kept out of it in some way.

Always find this patriotism and “we are better than you” really odd. For the most part your born where your born and through circumstance, stay there.

Given the current state of vaccine efficacy vs Delta it seems inevitable that once you open the borders your entire population will eventually get Covid 19 and up to 1,000 people will die of it (vs the 20,000 plus who would have died if you’d opened earlier). Is that something that will be politically acceptable to the population?

Well, I think most NZers are practical enough to realise it has to be. Jacinda is a politician, not a magician. I voted for her, I think she's done a great job of managing a highly challenging situation but I don't expect her to be able to defy the laws of nature.

Inhabitants of a country which has lost 170,000 of their compatriots are not in a position to criticise a county who has lost 26.

Erm, no.

Members of the government of a country that has lost 170,000 aren't in a position to criticise, yes. The less Boris Johnson has to say on this issue the better. But ordinary people who don't have any power or influence are certainly 100% entitled to comment. This, incidentally, would also be true for ordinary New Zealanders if the worst were to happen there. Jacinda and co would need to stfu, but the rest of you would have every right to be critical (or positive) about government responses in every other country in the world. Just as you do now, and just as British people do now.

Now as it happens I don't agree with the premise of the thread, I think it's positive that NZ is speeding up vaccination now and am hopeful that things can be managed well there. But your premise is idiotic.

'OMG why would anyone laugh at the UK when you were going through the worst of it?'

They did though, lots of high fiving at Christmas after our new variant meant lockdown. It was all very distasteful I think we had a 'you rock, Jacinda!' too.

So anyway, why is the take up so low? Is it lack of procurement and organisation or lack of take up?

Also, there are now doubts about how well vaccines will work both in the short term and the long term.

That raises another set of questions for NZs strategy long time, which the NZ public may find difficult to come to terms with even if the zero covid strategy and vaccine rollout are massively successful.

So thats also going to be hard to deal with even if deaths are minimised by a huge degree compared with other countries. Psychologically its going to be a shock to the system whenever NZ does eventually open up.

That might be the result of a successful strategy ironically anyway.

The smugness of kiwis about it all has been a bit tedious though, it hasn't been a competition. A very small population plus low pop density
This - hubris