That New Zealand's strategy has failed

[JudesBiggestFan]

And they will have to start the long and painful process of learning to live with Covid? I spoke to my friend in NZ earlier and he was in shock at being back in lockdown. He said they really felt they'd defeated the virus and this has just come out of nowhere. I feel for him but an airborne virus...it can't be stopped. And the cost of trying is too high. Or do they still have a chance of beating the virus?

Just wanted to say to all the NZ people that I really hope you get out with a low case/death rate and get to the end of your vaccinations.

It would make me very happy to see you able to avoid the horrible Delta mess.

Thanks for the love Aussie cousins!

I have to agree with the pp who said Jacinda needs to own her successes and mistakes. We should have paid for priority re vaccines - we’ve spent more on lockdowns than we’ve saved. We could have purchased priority doses for our Pacific neighbours and still been ahead financially.

I also think we should have considered vaccinating by region. Our geography is one of the advantages we have. The majority of lockdowns have been in Auckland, yet we have prioritised vaccinating over 60’s in far flung parts of the South Island. Covid/Delta was always going to be imported via the border, and then spread via an infection from Auckland. It has never come close to reaching swathes of the South Island. Makes no sense that my MIL in Gore has been double jabbed for ages but most Aucklanders haven’t been. Two thirds of the current outbreak are under 30. I know vaccinations don’t stop the spread, but they do slow it from what I understand.

I voted for Jacinda twice but her defensive rhetoric is wearing a bit thin. Yesterday’s case update was prefaced by a long pointless pitch on how well we’ve done so far. I’d prefer it if she’d just be upfront and give us the facts!

Totally agree with everything you’ve said @Ticklyrain incl voting for JA

The long preamble at the 1pm pressers forcing us to sit though all the “good news” while we wait for case numbers is fking infuriating

We should have paid for priority re vaccines - we’ve spent more on lockdowns than we’ve saved.

Not sure the numbers here work. The last lockdown was in February and the international vaccine programme was only getting properly underway then, so that lockdown was absolutely necessary. Couldn't have prevented that spending.

Even if by now we'd been much closer to the levels of vaccine immunity the government wants (let's say we were at the same level as the UK) I don't think the government would yet be ready to let Delta fully run because we have virtually no natural immunity to top up the vaccine levels. So we'd probably still have gone to a Level 3 for this outbreak.

So by that reasoning, we'd still have had the same number of lockdowns and almost all the associated cost, even if we'd spent the extra dosh on rushing the vaccines in.

The majority of lockdowns have been in Auckland, yet we have prioritised vaccinating over 60’s in far flung parts of the South Island.

Look at our deaths by DHB though. A lot of them were in the South Island. And there are MIQ facilities in Christchurch. As soon as the virus gets into a rest home, you've got a disaster on your hands.

@CheekyHobson you are dead right re MIQ in Chch - has forgotten about that! Makes sense.

I still think we were negligent in not securing priority doses. We managed well in getting the first wave under control, but it’s frustrating that this seems to translated into the thinking that we would always be able to do so, and control the virus on a relaxed time scale. I would have much preferred a more robust approach.

As you’ve said, we’d likely be able to go to Level 3 with higher vaccination levels. According to an Stuff article today, 15% of businesses can operate under level 4, and approx 43% can operate under level 3. That’s huge for the economy, I can’t see how it would relatively neutral. Not to mention the flow on effects in other areas - for example most builders can operate under level 3 conditions, and we currently have a housing shortage that needs them out there building, instead of being sat home on the wage subsidy.

From a personal perspective, my toddler can go to daycare for mornings at Level 3 (they have a bubble arrangement with same teachers each shift). That would mean I could wfh without the unrelenting pressure of trying to manage a bored little guy who badly needs to be running around with other toddlers. I imagine the strain on single parents is horrible and not sustainable long term. These are all unseen costs that could have been easily avoided.

The new data that vaccine efficacy wanes after six months should be factored into NZ planning.

@Gennz18

Totally agree with everything you’ve said *@Ticklyrain* incl voting for JA

The long preamble at the 1pm pressers forcing us to sit though all the “good news” while we wait for case numbers is fking infuriating

It is a press conference that is being shared with the public. It works exactly like a typical press conference. If you find it infuriating then that simply speaks to your ignorance of pressers. There is nothing remotely unusual about it except for the fact it is broadcast in its entirety. I day this as a veteran reporter. Personally I think it's a mistake to expect the public to grasp the machinations of the media and clearly most of them haven't as is evident from the many comments like yours.

@50ShadesOfCatholic I have worked in the media industry for several decades. I am not remotely ignorant of press conferences. Forcing the public to sit though 10-15 minutes of positive news stories before the daily case numbers are disclosed is infuriating.

This is a choreographed presser. It is only run as long as the mainstream media channels (TV and online) is prepared to cover it. If they were not prepared for (I.e. there wasn’t an escalating outbreak) the pressers wouldn’t be held. Using the first 5/10/15 minutes to deliver positive PR before the relevant information is shared is a piss-take.

Forcing the public to sit though 10-15 minutes of positive news stories before the daily case numbers are disclosed is infuriating.

If all the public wanted was the daily case numbers I'm pretty sure they would just look on Stuff or listen to the radio. Some of us like a bit more information.

Using the first 5/10/15 minutes to deliver positive PR before the relevant information is shared is a piss-take

I can see why that would be annoying, it is not allowing you to reach the most crucial information first, and secondly the sugar coating is nauseating and infantilising.

The issue is not how well NZ have managed covid to date, it has clearly been a total success.

It is the decision to continue with the elimination strategy with the new strain (Delta) that is going to cause problems. Getting back down to zero infections even with Level 4 lockdown is going to be all but impossible.

Ardern said the goal was to move away from lockdowns, but that could happen only once the majority of the population was vaccinated

And how many more years will that take?

It seems you won't be moving past lockdowns until the majority is vaccinated, therefore one has to assume that by the time the current programme has been completed and hoping most will comply and engage with the vaccine programme, you will then begin the next booster programme (we are just about to start here). It is will never end, as we adjust the vaccines to respond to each new variant. It is not the case that we have two vaccines and we are covered for life job done, sadly the vaccines seem to lose efficacy after six months or so.

Can you see where this is going?

You are never going to be free from lockdowns with the current strategy. Not a hope. You are always going to be rolling out vaccines of one kind or another. Least of all because it has now been proven that the vaccines lose their strength after a mere six months. I don't think I can say it more clearer than that. There needs to be a change of strategy from elimination or you will never escape the lockdowns.

I don't know why your government is not being more honest with you about this.

www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/covid-jab-protection-wanes-within-six-months-uk-researchers-2021-08-25/

I really hoped this thread had died a death with the lovely, wishing everyone all the best posts about 10 up ^^

But, no.

The dramatics are back

Well the news arrived this morning, so I am sharing it with you Lime I thought you would be grateful. On the bright side, I still wish you all the best - your PM needs to change strategies, and sharpish.

You are not sharing anything with me @stepupandbecounted

I live here. We have actual news sources here…?

Oh great lime so now you know about the vaccine time limits in terms of the efficacy you will see the elimination strategy can not possibly work?
So why do you suppose the government are not being open and transparent about the failure of their strategy given your latest stats overnight?

Cannot believe the histrionics from one poster regarding New Zealand are still going on.

It's an obsession.

UK started vaccinating on the 8th December .

Israel population 9 million started on the 19th December and by the end of June 60% of the eligible population had had both doses.

JA had 8 months to come up with a strategy for vaccination rather than what is happening now. An element of vaccine snobbery and scare mongering has not helped the role out.

This is going to be rolled into the annual national flu vaccine - so if that is not being planned right now then they are going to be even more issues.

Shutting the doors and holding tight has done fantastically well for NZ - but living with COVID just like in the 20th century we learned to live with influenza has to happen globally.
COVID 5 million global deaths 2019-2021 ongoing
Spanish flu H1N1 50 million global deaths 1918 - 1920 ongoing

Why not answer the hard questions then?

Seriously you are very very light on the actual scientific facts harriet and understanding how viruses work - and instead choose to simply berate posts that do not fall in line with your government's world view on covid strategy.

Answer the questions and have a proper debate, or shut up bleating and carry on chanting your devotion to the leaders of what is looking more and more like a communist country and government with every passing day.
The fact you aren't in the least bit concerned shows how far down the road you already are. Mass brainwashing on an epic scale, with covid used as an excuse.

Thank god for posts like bogoff We absolutely have to learn to live with covid, just how many years is it going to take and how many damaging lockdowns before that becomes a reality is anyone's guess if the posts on here are anything to go by!

@stepupandbecounted I’m just interested why New Zealand has attracted your ire particularly rather than say New South Wales or Victoria?

You can’t possibly compare New Zealand’s vaccination programme with Israel. Israel had a unique supply deal with Pfizer which would never have been available to a country with no Covid cases.

You could compare New Zealand with the UK or other European nations, yes, but there is a question of ethics. Would it have been morally acceptable for a country which was Covid free to take millions of extremely scarce vaccine doses while other countries had raging epidemics killing thousands every day and with health services cracking under the pressure? Much less of an issue now because the global vaccine supply is so much larger, but back at the beginning of the year it would have been actively immoral IMO.

If you had been to Rome, Madrid or Paris lately as I have never you would know that it is heaving with people enjoying wonderful holidays, parties and social lives. The European wave (the first and most serious) was fine by June 2020, and most countries were out of lockdown by July 2020 and back to normal abeit with face masks and SD.

So your holier than thou excuse for not vaccinating was only applicable until June of 2020 which was 14 - yes 14 months ago!!!! Since then the world has been swamped with vaccines and yet New Zealand still has one of the lowest vaccine rollouts in the western world. 19% is astonishing low. Just saying.

Did you miss the Winter/Spring 2021 European second/third wave? The rest of the world needed those vaccines far more than New Zealand did between December 2020 and April 2021, until the production lines really got rolling. I quite agree that New Zealand could do with vaccinating quicker now, but up until about May 2021 it would have been immoral for them to even start.

You really should get on the blower to the NZ PM there, stepupandbecounted. God only knows how she's managed thus far without you there to sort her out. Volcanoes erupting, terrorist attacks, pandemic - how on Earth has she managed without your sage advice?

Are you planning on running for election in NZ, next election? Or voting? Can you?

Communist? Good grief!

Nevertalk - there has been plenty of vaccine supply if you were prepared to use moderna, astra zeneca or pfizer. Istael paid a premium as did South Korea, Bojo just bought big and bought large and bought fridges!

Everyone had the opportunity to order and pay but JA ordered 750000 doses for a population of 4 million who were going to need 2 doses and stuck to one supplier..

Combined with a lack of planning for the infrastructure that is required to deliver Pfizer ( it is a ball ache compared to the others) then there was going to be a problem.

Morality is a personal view point and I respect yours but disagree. Ask those who are in itu with delta right now whether they wish they had been vaccinated as vaccines were available.