That New Zealand's strategy has failed

[JudesBiggestFan]

And they will have to start the long and painful process of learning to live with Covid? I spoke to my friend in NZ earlier and he was in shock at being back in lockdown. He said they really felt they'd defeated the virus and this has just come out of nowhere. I feel for him but an airborne virus...it can't be stopped. And the cost of trying is too high. Or do they still have a chance of beating the virus?

Not patronising at all 50Catholics - I called Boris Bojo and Jacinda Cindy!

Too many phone calls home and sending photos from friends showing them out enjoying meals, drinks etc in the sun and referencing - hope lockdown not too bad! May be not laughed their socks off but an immense amount of smugness.

NZ did brilliantly but did not plan ahead - that is my point . They had all the opportunity and none of the foresight - that is what is sad.

@NeverTalkToStrangers

Unfair to say that Oz didn’t contribute to the global vaccine effort. They invested heavily in a promising and effective vaccine which was unlucky enough to have a flaw which made it unviable (not a catastrophic flaw either - if it was the only vaccine available then it would have gone ahead, they only pulled out because the other candidate vaccines were doing so well).

Absolutely, they did at least try. I know it didn't work out but the effort was made.

I understand NZs approach, and given where they are I don't think they've got much choice but to try and stamp this out, then get everyone vaccinated ASAP.

But I'm glad I'm in the UK, even though our current position is largely down to early incompetence.

The big problem NZ has is they are likely to top out their vaccine numbers at 70-80% (as per most western nations), and the remainder of the population will be completely pristine for the virus.

Whereas the UK has had the "benefit" of a continual rumbling of cases, including residual immunity from the initial and alpha variant waves. The detected antibodies in the UK population must be above 95% by now - almost everyone's either had it or has been vaccinated. Letting it rumble on in the UK, from this point, is very conceivably the least-harm approach now.

Whereas NZ has to do all this with only vaccination, and that's hard, as we've seen in many countries.

@bogoffmda

Not patronising at all 50Catholics - I called Boris Bojo and Jacinda Cindy!

Too many phone calls home and sending photos from friends showing them out enjoying meals, drinks etc in the sun and referencing - hope lockdown not too bad! May be not laughed their socks off but an immense amount of smugness.

NZ did brilliantly but did not plan ahead - that is my point . They had all the opportunity and none of the foresight - that is what is sad.

Your posts reek ignorance and arrogance.

MN is ridiculous.

Indeed it is FirewomanSam, and not just on this thread.

The opinions I hear from the UK are very different from what I hear here in NZ. I am happy with the current lockdown strategy and so is 84% of the country (7% neutral, 10% against).

It's like how the BBC ran an article with the headline "Covid: New Zealand pandemic strategy in doubt amid Delta spread." Yes, the minister was saying that things would likely change in the future but at no point is the government planning to abandon covid restrictions before the end of the vaccination campaign. The Prime Minister was question about that and confirmed it today.

Also I don't know anyone who was laughing at the situation in other countries. Now there are arseholes everywhere, so it probably has happened, but it's certainly not the national sentiment. Mostly people here felt very sad for people overseas, maybe at most a bit exasperated at the decision of various governments. Sort of like watching the news about Afghanistan now, you feel very sad for the people involved and maybe a bit shocked that various international governments did not act to evacuate their citizens and interpreters earlier. You don't laugh at the misfortune of the general public there.

@ButteringMyArse

There is also a popular myth that NZ has not contributed to the vaccine effort. It has, and continues to. My partner is one of the scientists involved. Love how MN knows better lol

I am really curious as to how people will assess different countries 'success' and 'failure' in 5 years time. Will it be number of deaths? Or the subjective experience of 'most people'/what was reported in the media? Or a balance of lockdowns vs deaths vs how quickly people went 'back to normal"?

It seems odd stating their strategy has 'failed' when on balance they're in a much better position than any other country I can think of.

For most of the last 18 months I would have much preferred being in New Zealand or Australia. I have family in Australia and we've been watching whats going on to understand when we will next get to see them. Lockdown, WFH, no childcare, isolation - the experience in much of Europe has been really, really tough.

The UK did not cover themselves in glory in their initial response. The Irish government, where I've lived through this, did somewhat better at the start in terms of both numbers and getting the public onside. Then squandered all that so people could have a 'Christmas' and saw us go into another more brutal lockdown, while the UK moved ahead much more quickly with vaccines. Honestly I think that Australia/New Zealand completely successfully dealt with the period from March - December 2020; in terms of both deaths and restrictions.

The UK started to come into their own with the vaccine, though the response to the fairly niche issues with Astra etc was a bit too jingoistic - I did feel slightly better living in a country that gave different vaccines to different age and risk profiles as soon as evidence became known. The initial messaging from the British government/media seemed to be concerns about Astra were purely because people were jealous. But equally, the roll out for us at the start was slower, and restrictions carried on longer. I would be immensely frustrated if I was in Australia/NZ right now: My understanding is a lot of the vaccine delays are due to government policy, they only bought Astra and there was some reluctance when issues around blood clots were known as people didn't want to put themselves at any risk when they saw no real danger from covid.

So: poor vaccine provision and poor public health messaging/vaccine uptake. Leading to lockdowns and continued travel restrictions. BUT - This is coming about 18 months in. I think it NZ/Aus revise their approach then in 12 months time their 'overall' cover strategy could still be superior. I'm not sure how much longer it will make sense for Australia in particular to push zero travel/zero covid. But another three months and a serious push could see huge numbers vaccinated.

If that happens... nearly 2 years unable to see foreign-based family and friends. Unfortunate, but not wildly outside the norm given how much people in the UK/Ireland/Europe have restricted their movements.

Probably a slightly lower overall vaccine uptake, and definitely an increase in deaths, but potentially numbers something like a quarter of what much of the rest of the world endured. And yes, some restrictions, but again a tiny fraction of what the rest of us have been to.

I think they need to make clear that they're changing their approach, but I still think they come out on top to date, and probably will in the future. I'm a bit mystified by the idea that all those lives spared and months of unrestricted living are meaningless because there are some challenges at the end.

I can not for the life of me still understand the dickheads who say 'why didn't we shut the border' comparing the UK to NZ.

We didn't have the option in the same way.

We already had the virus in the country, before China even went public about it being a problem. Our main variant came from Italy not China too.

Being a hub of trade and being connected by not just one but two land borders that we rely on human driven lorries for trade and food supply was always a much bigger issue. Not only that but our global location made it politically much harder to shut the borders on the basis of just a few deaths, in the absence of more information.

NZ always had more time than the UK to do anything. It had more practical ability and political ability to close the borders early.

Fuckwits who persist with this idea that we could have closed the borders quicker know little about trade and politics. We would have ended up with a political firestorm and likely civil unrest for doing so which would have brought a hell of a lot of other problems. And we'd have still needed PPE and testing facilities anyway.

The UK lost its battle against covid, before Nov 2019 due a number of reasons. Planning for a pandemic was in a state which hadn't been updated for some time and lead to us not having adequate amounts of infrustracture and equipment and medical staff to be able to cope with the problem better. These were long term chronic issues than led to short term crisis managment problems.

We were also coming off the back of a period in our history where nationalism has been pushed and there was a strong feeling of we are better than others and we can do things our way - both in government and in the public. You aren't going to suddenly be able to push back against that without a very visible threat which is clearly impacting people on the ground. Even if your name is Boris Johnson.

Its far too easy to say stuff in hindsight. In early Feb 2020, even though it was obvious it was coming, there was a massive reluctance from all political quarters and scientists to do more sooner. No one in Opposition was saying in the first week of February, we need to shut the borders now. No one. Because the scientists were still confident we would be fine and no one was prepared to stick their neck out and risk political ridicule and suicide. Politicians reflect public opinion more than we are willing to admit. Its often easier to blame the politicians for our own views being reflected back at us. We arrogantly thought we were ok and perhaps naively trusted the Chinese more than we should to contain the problem. We would never as a country have agreed to something so drastic without the benefit of experience. We were British. We were the exception. Our world class health care service would detect cases and stop the problem....

Going forward we need to realise that this type of event is more likely to happen. And the emphasis has to be on global cooperation early on, rather than health nationalism, which is all over this thread in spades (by multiple nationalities) and is ultimately a destructive rather than positive force.

We also perhaps should be addressing the fact that several nations - not just China are doing research into very danger viruses without any scrutiny - and potentially as a result of that are a risk to the public over safety. And if (and it looks increasingly likely) this was a lab leak, then there are massive issues from that. It would not be the first time a lab leak has lead to deaths in the community.

I don't expect this to happen. And I fully expect us to face much of a repeat within the next 70 years as the experience of covid melts from recent memory and those who live through it look back with rather more rose tinted vision than we should, because 'look we survived it, we were patrotic and did our duty' etc etc.

Cos people don't listen, don't do history and are generally pretty reactionary in practice because they don't like change and very few people like to to acknowledge that Bad Things Happen before they do - often because they have more immediate priorities concerns and worries that they are struggling to deal with on a day to day basis without thinking about the once in a lifetime incident that may or may not come heading their way.

Oz and NZ have done little / nothing to contribute to the global effort on the fight against COVID in the past 18 months. The rest of the worlds medical and biotech has collaborated worked their socks off and come up with something that works - not perfectly but then nothing in this world is 100%.

Tired of seeing this furphy trotted out, TBH.

Australian scientists were the first outside China to recreate the virus, paving the way for vaccine developments worldwide. Including AZ/Oxford.

www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-51289897

There was a vaccine in development at the University of Queensland that had to be abandoned because it was found in trials to give false positives for HIV.

Australia's first MRNA vaccine (non COVID, I believe) is in trials in Victoria now as MRNA manufacturing capacity is ramped up.

I have less specific detail on NZ, but I know it has contributed on par with its population size and economy to the global COVAX program, which is intended to send COVID vaccines to poorer countries.

This idea that both countries have twiddled their thumbs while others did all the heavy lifting is born of nothing but ignorance.

Who is getting more bitter and twisted as celebrities get slots and yet NZs own citizens are treated like second class citizens.

I think you are understandably bitter not being able to return home. I'm in Australia and I haven't been able to see my oldest son (in Spain) since 2019. It's not easy ...but it doesn't mean Australia and New Zealand got it wrong. They put their residents first and most people in both countries agree with the policy.

Celebrities and big money will always find a way to bypass regulations in EVERY COUNTRY. It still doesn't mean NZ and AU had the wrong policy for majority of their population.

I have less specific detail on NZ, but I know it has contributed on par with its population size and economy to the global COVAX program

Really? How much did they contribute? I read that it was enough for 800k doses, that is cash down the back of the couch money but happy to be corrected.

I'm not saying shut the border. I'm saying manage the border better.

People have been travelling in and out of the UK since it all kicked off just to go on holidays, work jollies (that can be done remotely) etc. Two week quarantine was introduced way too late and not for the right countries.

Theres a massive range of options between completely open and completely closed.

I'm not saying shut the border. I'm saying manage the border better.

What would that actually look like in reality and what difference would it have made given the unavoidably porous nature of the U.K. border?

50Catholic - how arrogance and ignorance.

I understand the theory behind zero covid and I understand the principle of vaccination.

I have an opinion you disagree with that is fine but being rude with no evidence is not acceptable.

Believe me knowing people were safe at home was always good as we have family spread over 4 countries. It is stressful supporting scared people from afar - a new position for me to be in and I wish I was not.

Am I bitter about not getting home - yes. Missed funerals, weddings am god mother to two friends babies - all things I have missed but that is life. When you set your computer up so when slots become available you can press yes and the response time to get a slot is currently 3 seconds - I am deeply cynical.

@FourTeaFallOut

I have less specific detail on NZ, but I know it has contributed on par with its population size and economy to the global COVAX program

Really? How much did they contribute? I read that it was enough for 800k doses, that is cash down the back of the couch money but happy to be corrected.

Yes, 17 million NZD to COVAX but much, more more money for Pacific neighbours (e.g.Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu) directly i.e. not through COVAX.

This unpleasant thread belongs on the Coronavirus board, along with all the other unpleasant threads about NZ and Australia.

@gofg

JA is not without her faults, but she is not like the bumbling fool whose role it is to lead the UK through these crises.

Well said. We don't hear much about Boris these days do we - I suspect people are hoping that the rest of the world has forgotten just how bad things were in the UK earlier in the pandemic (and before you all rush on here to deny it, we were reading MN back then).

Remind me how long it has been since you came out of restrictions? Just over a month ago wasn't it? So, how can you possibly know what the next year has in store for you, any more than any other country can, and yet there you are, predicting doom and gloom for other nations and everything being hunky-dory for yourself.

This a million times over. The schadenfreude from some on this thread is disheartening.

@TheKeatingFive

I'm not saying shut the border. I'm saying manage the border better.

What would that actually look like in reality and what difference would it have made given the unavoidably porous nature of the U.K. border?

So that would have meant shutting the border to China, but not Italy. Keeping in mind you couldn't just shut the border to Italy in practice because you'd effectively have to shut the border to the EU because Italy has land borders. And actively one of the hotspots early on, turned out to be an Austrian ski resort anyway, which wasn't showing signs of a crisis in hospitals and it was only later realised was super spreader location...

Yes 'managing the border' better (whatever the fuck that means - in the absence of the ability to test) - sounds like it would have been a viable option

I think if you look around the world, most places have done some things successfully and some things less successfully. Some places have had natural advantages that other places haven't. In time, history will judge but we aren't at that stage yet.

@legosunqueen

Unbelievable arrogance & ignorance on this thread. 26 sadly dead versus over 150k - NZ's strategy has been successful, there will always be blips in an imperfect world but I know where I'd rather have been during the pandemic (I'm in the UK but have family in NZ)...

Unbelievable arrogance and ignorance?

Oh, the irony.

@milkyaqua

This unpleasant thread belongs on the Coronavirus board, along with all the other unpleasant threads about NZ and Australia.

And the VERY unpleasant and rude and NASTY threads about the UK.

And the VERY unpleasant and rude and NASTY threads about the UK. hmm

your post was so nasty it has been deleted

If you believe anyone has been racist about the UK, just go ahead and report them, and they will be deleted too

@54321nought

And the VERY unpleasant and rude and NASTY threads about the UK. hmm

your post was so nasty it has been deleted

If you believe anyone has been racist about the UK, just go ahead and report them, and they will be deleted too

It was there ten minutes ago. It has been there 12 hours. Thanks for reporting it. I'll remember that.

The smugness of kiwis about it all has been a bit tedious though, it hasn't been a competition. A very small population plus low population density.

This. ^ AND the fact they're 1000s of miles from the rest of the planet! Funny how people don't like to hear it though.

@buffyajp

No. They are factual posts. Certainly no worse than Arden a few weeks ago smugly announcing they had beaten Covid while other countries citizens were still suffering. Funny how when there is the slightest criticism back (not smugness) people don’t like it.

This too.

And yeah, people WERE smug and boastful about the fact NZ had beaten covid. Funny how they don't like to admit this now covid has returned to them big-style!