That New Zealand's strategy has failed

[JudesBiggestFan]

And they will have to start the long and painful process of learning to live with Covid? I spoke to my friend in NZ earlier and he was in shock at being back in lockdown. He said they really felt they'd defeated the virus and this has just come out of nowhere. I feel for him but an airborne virus...it can't be stopped. And the cost of trying is too high. Or do they still have a chance of beating the virus?

Sorry that was meant to quote a poster on page 1 but it won’t let me! D’oh!

@trancepants

There are a lot of reasons that NZ kept it's case so low. And yes, geographical location and population density played a part in that. But they also had a plan of action for novel diseases, years in the making, that they made a decision to put in place in January 3rd 2020. While the vast majority of the world wasn't paying the remotest bit of attention to events in Wuhan, the New Zealand government recognised the the potential danger and acted.

They had accessed their strengths and weaknesses and planned for them long in advance. And when news came of a new virus, they not only had a plan for how to handle it, they actually had the fucking ovaries to act immediately and put it in place. We can belittle their success all we want based on the advantages they had. But all European governments should have had similar plans in place, with our weaknesses and strengths in place. And they should have paid proper attention to what was happening in Wuhan, the fucking instant the Chinese government were willing to admit there was a problem.

And we can look at NZ and say, aw look, what a failure it's been. And yes, it's unfortunate timing for them that the Delta variant has gotten in now, before they have had time to put a proper vaccine programme in place. But they have saved thousands of lives, damaged their economies less and lived really normal lives for most of the last 18 months. Go back and look at the footage of the NYE celebrations in Christchurch. Look at the crowds on the streets singing and cheering. Then have a read of that night on Mumsnet. Think of the Christmas they had and the Christmas we had.

It honestly smacks of a really petulant need to feel a bit of schadenfruede out of jealousy because they managed better than us.

Being in perpetual lockdown. Sure that’s managing it so much better. Even the most obsessive lockdown proponents cannot argue for NZ. I’m sure they’ll try though

One of the worst things the UK has done in their response to the pandemic is keep their borders/international travel open and free movement.

NZ did the opposite. Yes, they may have been (logistically) in a better position to do this, but we didnt even try.

I don't have time or inclination to search old threads to find examples of Kiwis laughing at the UK, but I accept that posters who say it happened are telling the truth. I guess there are assholes everywhere.... there certainly seem to be some on this thread who are positively gleeful that NZ's strategy is in a bumpy stage.

I do think perhaps people are projecting their own failed understanding of NZ's strategy onto NZers. I'm not sure many people here believe our government intends to keep Covid out forever.

In the early months of the pandemic, many countries hoped it might consist of a single wave that would ebb away with the help of lockdowns and maybe vaccines. Once it became obvious that there were going to be multiple waves and it would become endemic, NZers understood that the future would be vaccine-reliant just as well as anyone. We just happened to be in a stronger defensive position – thanks to both good luck and good management – from which to try to get the population heavily vaccinated without substantial exposure to the virus.

@RedToothBrush

Also, there are now doubts about how well vaccines will work both in the short term and the long term.

That raises another set of questions for NZs strategy long time, which the NZ public may find difficult to come to terms with even if the zero covid strategy and vaccine rollout are massively successful.

So thats also going to be hard to deal with even if deaths are minimised by a huge degree compared with other countries. Psychologically its going to be a shock to the system whenever NZ does eventually open up.

That might be the result of a successful strategy ironically anyway.

I’m in a country where we’ve had a lot of freedom internally, less so with being allowed to cross borders. The emerging evidence about vaccination (and also the horrific possibility of new variants which might cause cytokine storms in the young and vaccinated) is horrific. There’s still the chance that allowing natural immunity to build up will turn out to be the best strategy. For me the hardest thing is that we are so far in, with no obvious end in sight. I had great hopes that vaccination would bring more certainty and it really hasn’t.

Zero Covid was a good idea if you also developed vaccines / got hold of enough vaccines early and then persuaded your population to take them. Problem was vaccines were developed elsewhere and prioritised elsewhere . And why would a population with no Covid rush for a vaccine when things were fine as they were for a bit? The vaccine rollout let the zero Covid plan down. Also as we’re seeing in the UK vaccine doesn’t completely stop delta and it’s better to have a population with some natural immunity than none.

I think it was a good idea to try it in the circumstances (small population, not an international travel hub, no land borders, etc) but the leaving zero Covid and moving to vaccine/opening up planning should have been better.

One of the worst things the UK has done in their response to the pandemic is keep their borders/international travel open and free movement.

How could that have been a successful policy given a land border with the EU that they couldn’t close due to the terms of an international agreement?

Being in perpetual lockdown. Sure that’s managing it so much better. Even the most obsessive lockdown proponents cannot argue for NZ. I’m sure they’ll try though

Huh? What do you mean by perpetual lockdown? Are you referring to the UK?

Nobody wants lockdowns. Many (most?) people believe it's unfortunately the lesser of two evils.

The emerging evidence about vaccination (and also the horrific possibility of new variants which might cause cytokine storms in the young and vaccinated) is horrific

What evidence?

There is a reason larger economies tend to do worse on indicator metrics during this pandemic. Perpetual lockdowns are an easy choice with longer term repercussions that only smaller economies can take. Let’s not compare NZ to Europe or US. NZ is not exactly the centre of commerce or travel in the world. It’s a bit like Scotland vs England debate. Tiny population, much smaller economy, and inconsequential in the grand scheme of longer term recovery if these countries are locked down. So their leaders have an easy choice and guess what, they take the easier route.

@JaniieJones

'I feel much more that people over here are smug when they hear that NZ cases are up '

Absolutely not, it is and always will be an ever changing situation. Every country has its own unique set of circumstances and we are all doing the best we can.

The point is we had a lot of crass back slaps from New Zealanders on mn at Christmas so perhaps this may make them think twice before being so arrogant in the future?

Was this a widespread thing do you think or perhaps one or two trolls?Could you link to any examples?

@Bryonyshcmyony

The emerging evidence about vaccination (and also the horrific possibility of new variants which might cause cytokine storms in the young and vaccinated) is horrific

What evidence?

@Bryonyshcmyony trying to find the Post that said this. Are they saying there's "horrific " evidence against the vaccine?

If you look at economies big and small, the countries that controlled covid the best limited the economic damage too.

@TheKeatingFive

One of the worst things the UK has done in their response to the pandemic is keep their borders/international travel open and free movement.

How could that have been a successful policy given a land border with the EU that they couldn’t close due to the terms of an international agreement?

Movement into the UK via only the Ireland/N.Ireland open border would have been a much better situation than open access via all means.

I think people conflate 'lockdowns' and 'closed borders' in a way that becomes quite confusing.

NZ has had closed borders, ie people can't come and go freely between countries. But we have not really had lockdowns. Since March 2020, New Zealanders as a whole have lived under lockdown or highly restricted conditions for about eight weeks, with the biggest city restricted for about 12 or 13 weeks total.

The UK on the other hand has had much more open borders, ie people can come and go between countries much more freely. But you seem to have been living under some kind of lockdown conditions for about 11 or 12 months from what I can remember.

@sst1234

There is a reason larger economies tend to do worse on indicator metrics during this pandemic. Perpetual lockdowns are an easy choice with longer term repercussions that only smaller economies can take. Let’s not compare NZ to Europe or US. NZ is not exactly the centre of commerce or travel in the world. It’s a bit like Scotland vs England debate. Tiny population, much smaller economy, and inconsequential in the grand scheme of longer term recovery if these countries are locked down. So their leaders have an easy choice and guess what, they take the easier route.

I think people have missed the information that NZ has NOT been locked down for the majority of this time. Early, strong lockdown = short lockdown.

If the Uk had closed all bar the ROI/NI border to ROI citizens, we would have been in a far better situation than we were with our open borders to the ROW.

The ROI/NI border just gets used to trying to retrospectively justify a mistake.

@geoffryjuniper

It was @AnyOldPrion s post a few back

NZ has done a good job, no question.

However, again, against disagreements about size and population, NZ is still a very singular country in a singular situation. NZ does not have millions of multinationals going in and out of the country on a daily basis. Nor the breadth of those multinationals, EU, Indian, African, American. NZ does not host tens of thousands of asylum seekers and refugees like the EU does, or have massive movements of peoples across it's nation and beyond.

It is in a unique position, and cannot in any way be compared to the UK/EU situation at all.

@Bryonyshcmyony

The emerging evidence about vaccination (and also the horrific possibility of new variants which might cause cytokine storms in the young and vaccinated) is horrific

What evidence?

Apologies, didn’t explain that well. I’m not thinking very straight today and assumed people would understand my train of thought!

The evidence that this particular vaccine doesn’t control the spread of disease effectively, but only offers some protection against the more serious side effects.

A vaccine that stopped the disease in its tracks might still have offered the possibility of proper herd immunity and potentially eradication of COVID altogether (though the latter was never likely).

But as it doesn’t give full immunity, then herd immunity is not possible. Taking that thought further, if you continue to have high levels of virus, the chances of mutation remain high. Indeed it’s possible that the vaccine itself will drive mutation towards strains that are unaffected by the vaccine, though that would also be true of a vaccine that offered good immunity if insufficient people were vaccinated to give herd immunity.

There is no evidence about cytokine storms in young people, I am just aware that it is one possible path. I really want to feel that things are getting better with the vaccine roll-out, but still feel the situation is so volatile that we’re not much better off than we were a year ago.

Is NZ going to accept any Afghans ?

Most Kiwis I know are feeling relaxed about this lockdown - I think the poster above who said something like after well over a year (in my area anyway) without lockdowns we aren't too jaded, especially as we're talking about leaving Level 4 at the end of this week.

No one is talking about "zero covid" anymore long term. No one. We're just trying to get as many people vaccinated as possible so when covid does rip through (which we know it will) people will get sick, but they hopefully won't die.

The evidence that this particular vaccine doesn’t control the spread of disease effectively, but only offers some protection against the more serious side effects lots of protection actually and that's hardly "horrific"

Choose your words more carefully if you don't want to ba accused of scaremongering

And all evidence points to viruses becoming more transmissible but less fatal as they mutate

Movement into the UK via only the Ireland/N.Ireland open border would have been a much better situation than open access via all means.

But that’s a back door to Europe. Anyone who wanted to get to the U.K. could. So I don’t really agree.

Then there’s haulage via manned lorries delivering food across the country, coming in from mainland Europe. No easy way to manage or stop that either.

That’s before we get to the UK’s position as a business hub.

Closing borders was always a pipe dream.