I know of at least two SENDist hearing that were rescheduled at short notice during lockdown
@ByeClare, that's not what the tribunal says. I suspect those hearings were rescheduled for reasons other than the tribunal being too busy, e.g. non-availability of witnesses, the cases not being ready for a hearing.
By October we should possibly be out of lockdown, which may mean that in-person hearings get postponed again.
The tribunal has made it clear that online hearings will still be the norm after lockdown unless there is a particular reason for wanting an in-person hearing. If OP's hearing has been listed as a remote hearing that won't be changed without a very good reason. They have done a lot of judge recruitment since the period before lockdown when late postponements were a particular problem, so the likelihood of a recurrence is pretty small.
If the tribunal decides that this is the only suitable school, then the LA will have no choice but to arrange transport because its duty is to provide transport to the nearest suitable school
This is not the full truth as an absolute statement. The child’s SEND and the distance are relevant; yes in this case they will have to provide it going by what the OP has said, but it’s not a sure fire bet for all. Part id the issue here is that the considerable cost of the transport will be a factor in whether it’s considered suitable, as it may cost an awful lot more than the school the LA considered suitable. Which presumably is his current one. Which again begs my earlier point, whether the LA has tried to get the school currently named in the EHCP to provide what they’re supposed to
You have conflated two different issues. The tribunal takes into account two things - cost, and whether the school is able to meet needs. If it were to decide that both the current school and OP's school can meet needs, then certainly OP is highly unlikely to win because a mainstream school will be cheaper even before you take transport into account. However, if they decide that the current school (or any alternative the LA might nominate) cannot meet needs, then it is very likely indeed to name OP's school. What the tribunal absolutely cannot do is to decide that a school which cannot meet needs must nevertheless be named because the alternative is expensive. Being cheap can't in itself make a school suitable.
We don't know whether the LA has tried to make the current school comply with the EHCP - I suspect they have, not least because they've got an appeal to deal with. They wouldn't have decided to ignore the issue knowing that it would destroy their case.
But equally we don't know whether the current EHCP is adequate and properly sets out the provision OP's child needs. Generally speaking, LAs draft EHCPs very badly and don't get adequate advice and information when assessing what is needed. If, for instance, OP's evidence demonstrates to the tribunal's satisfaction that her child needs specialist provision of a type which the current school cannot provide under any circumstances - e.g. smaller classes, specialist teachers, on-site therapies etc - then again the tribunal will not be able to name the current school.