Can we take a vote.....who will be following lockdown measures after May?

[DuchessofHastings1]

There was a thread in Coronavirus but I wanted to do a vote to see actual numbers.

Vaccine roll out has been impressive. Our government seem to be digging out of the hole they got us in.
The over 50s (who count for 99%) of Covid deaths and the majority of hospital admissions will be vaccinated by end of May.

Who will be sticking to the rules once the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated?

YANBU - NO
YABU - YES

As far as I can see many are easing off now - lots of the dcs' friends are allowed out to meet up (incl go into each others houses) which is a big shift from earlier this year/end of last year and from what I can see of the neighbours' houses more of them are having visitors.

@LadyMayoGoodway

Well said! It utterly astounds me that these people forget that the death rate for COVID, which is already incredibly high, has been limited by the current restrictions. Hence why the comparison with flu or pneumonia deaths from other years is completely pointless.

It’s also always the people who can’t fathom basic science (or maths) who are so convinced they’re correct as compared to hundreds of eminent scientists!

I can't answer the question yet - I will need to know what the figures are like by then. I am perfectly happy to continue the measures I'm already doing (face covering where it is currently required and sometimes between shops in busy places, walking instead of taking public transport, social distancing, wiping shopping) for longer if I personally think it is a good idea (or more likely if DH does - he is instinctively more cautious than me), because even though I'm not particularly at risk, I'll certainly be coming into contact with people who are.

I honestly think the majority of mumsnetters will demand to be locked down forever.
No doubt most of them wfh and/or well off enough not to be affected.
We are definitely not all in this together.

Sadsibling if you mean me, I'm allowed to go to work as we are providing an essential service. Also, I would only continue self-imposed restrictions if the statistics said it was not safe to relax them. I don't intend to live like this for ever if there's genuinely no reason to!

Hang on, let me just consult my crystal ball...

Nope. Dunno what the rules are going to be.

My guess is the rules will be fairly light touch by May/June meaning that most people will be willing to abide by them. E.g max 6 people can gather both inside and out, uk travel permitted, cafes, pubs and shops open. Tbh under those rules 90% of life is same as usual. Its my hope that's where we'll be by may/June.

How can anyone answer this? If restriction are still place that's because they have to be?

Well either vaccines etc will have done the job and restrictions will have eased by May, and it will be much easier to have a life within the rules.

Or mutations will mean we’re still in a serious situation and harsh restrictions will be still be needed and it will be tough, but foolish and irresponsible to flout the rules.

Either way I’ll live within the rules whatever they are - they’ve not been imposed for shits and giggles.

For god's sake OP, can't you go and wear your tinfoil hat elsewhere, it's bloody tiresome

It is neither stupid nor reckless to have had enough of the restrictions. I appreciate that Covid kills (a minority of people) and I am not a covid denier. I've been compliant so far. For me we've reached a tipping point whereby after the vaccination of the vulnerable, I am not prepared to tolerate continuing restrictions on our liberties (with perhaps the exception of overseas travel in the short term). The 'costs' are now too much to bear. Life has become an unrewarding, depressing grinding slog - a year of this is quite enough. Also I am not prepared for my 16 and 18 year old to suffer continuing privations - fuck that.

Yes, I do understand the implications and frankly if some people die (and they could be me, in my 50's) - well sad as that is, it's part of life

The "I'll be seeing my family no matter what" responses are what will ensure the restrictive measures go on forever!

@Daphnise

The "I'll be seeing my family no matter what" responses are what will ensure the restrictive measures go on forever!

Except they won’t. Do you honestly think we’re all going to be prepared to live like this for ever? I’m certainly not. If I’m lucky I’ve got another 20 years left and I’m not spending any more of those years like this.

Being alive is more than not being dead.

@LimitIsUp I’m sure your children will be delighted with a dead mother what an odd thing to say as a mother with children still at home.

@Daphnise

The "I'll be seeing my family no matter what" responses are what will ensure the restrictive measures go on forever!

They won't go on forever though will they.

The death rate for my age group (early 50's) If I contract covid is 1.3%. In fact my chances of dying from covid in a given year are much less than that - because that rate presupposes that I actually contract it

My chances of dying in a given year from any other cause at my age is 1 in 178

Frankly there is not much in it

So no, it wasn't an odd thing to say... and if it this goes on much longer I am not sure that one of my teens will still be here

Actually scrub that, after vaccination my risk of death from covid will be vanishingly small, not even close to the previous 1.3%, even if the South African variant gets a foothold

"our government seem to be digging out of the hole they got us in."

Yeah it probably was a mistake to create the virus in the Downing Street Lab

@LastTrainEast

"our government seem to be digging out of the hole they got us in."

Yeah it probably was a mistake to create the virus in the Downing Street Lab

Did I imply the government created the virus? I was thinking more along the lines of closing borders and introducing masks 4 month in, letting everyone mix over Christmas and they're general handling of the pandemic.

@LadyMayoGoodway

Yes OP sadly idiots like you, there’s no point even carrying on a grown up conversation as you just won’t get it. But here goes.

They never expected the virus to mutate to such a degree and so fast, that degree being one that will evade the response of the vaccines we currently have available. Some of the adult population may be vaccinated by May, which would have been amazing however it looks like the vaccines they’ll have available to use between now and May will be next to useless against the South African strain and if we allow that to get a foothold we’ll be back to square one. I don’t know what’s so hard to comprehend.

If we can hold back the tide and get some of the spreaders vaccinated with vaccines that are somewhat effective against those variants with mutations to the spike protein that will slow down the spread of this new variant and ease pressures on people dying by which time we’ll have boosters available for those vaccines that were not as effective, as I said there’s also a lot of new therapeutic treatments coming on line but that won’t be until later in the year either.

So you can follow the measures that are in place at any one time and help get it under control, or you can carry on being ignorant and shooting yourself and the rest of us in the foot.

Also as an aside do you only think it’s only the under 50’s who’ve had their lives and business ruined?!? I mean plenty of over 50’s are dead - doesn’t get much more life ruining than that does it.

Yes I do get grown up conversations.

I do get the vaccine might be less effective to the new strains. Its registered. Thanks. But can you register that they're could be more and more variants that make the vaccine less effective?
At what point do we say enough is enough?

'They evade the response of the vaccines we currently have available' where did you get this information?
It's been currently reported the Astrazenca is less effective for mild symptoms, though will give protection against death or hospitalization which is what the vaccines are aimed for.

We could have years of variants and then well have years of new booster jabs like we have had with the flu.

And yes I'm aware over 50s have died, thank god we now have vaccines with over 90% efficiency ey?

Agreed. They believe that the vaccines will protect against severe illness and hospitalisation from the South African variant. T cell response will still happen.

It's a pity that people don't do their research and read beyond the headlines

Please do share this research @LimitIsUp

summary here

Relevant section:
"Scientists have tested the Pfizer Covid vaccine against N501Y and E484k mutations in the lab, using blood samples from vaccinated people.

In that study, vaccination appeared to work, but was slightly less effective.

Early results from Moderna suggest its vaccine is still effective against the South Africa variant, although the immune response may not be as strong or prolonged.

Two new coronavirus vaccines that could be approved soon - one from Novavax and another from Janssen - appear to offer some protection against the variant.

Preliminary work suggests the Oxford-AstraZeneca's vaccine offers "limited" protection against mild disease from the South Africa variant, but experts say it should still protect against severe disease."

I'll abide by all regulations except the continued prohibition of seeing family members who have been vaccinated. My parents haven't been anywhere for months. They're both vaccinated. My dad is having a really shit time at the moment. I'll be wrapping my arms around him and giving him a massive hug next Thursday, 3 weeks on from having his vaccination. Me and dh are wfh, we're not going anywhere either. Minimal risk. This isn't living, it's existing. I don't give a shit about going to pubs and restaurants. I want to see my vaccinated parents, that is all. I've stuck to the rules throughout, had nobody over for Christmas as we went into tier 4 shortly before.