To think a short, hard, lockdown is better than a soft one dragging on for months?

[PrincessNutNuts]

Would you rather go hard for a shorter duration? (YANBU)
(Stay at home order. Daily exercise outside, only see your bubble, shop as infrequently as you can, work from home if you can, most things closed, schools and universities closed.)

Or have a softer lockdown for longer? YABU)
Unlimited shopping, schools open, Tier 3 rules, I guess.

It's not a choice though.

It's endemic.

I think we'll be locked down hard for a good while now.

Nightmare.

I think short and tough is better. But there comes a point when the numbers are large that it’s never going to be short.

I’m in Melbourne which was a hard lockdown, but it felt like it took ages for our numbers to even start dropping and our peak I think was about 700 new cases a day. The longer u need the less sustainable it becomes.

I'm in Wales. We had a two week firebreak, which more or less equates to your short hard lockdown option, in October/November. It doesn't work - we're back in Tier 4 already. So your choices aren't equivalent.

This is an endemic virus (in the UK) and it's time we all understood that lockdowns only ever kick the can down the road. It is not the case that a harder lockdown means less restrictions in future.

I think most responsible people are doing the hard lockdown anyway because they don't want to get ill or endanger their families.

Thinking about virus lifecycle / transmission/ incubation time, yes a short, sharp lockdown would be beneficial.
But the critical point would be how to handle the aftermath.
We'd need to control people's movements and check everyone entering the country... it's politically impossible.

@PrincessNutNuts

Would you rather go hard for a shorter duration? (YANBU) (Stay at home order. Daily exercise outside, only see your bubble, shop as infrequently as you can, work from home if you can, most things closed, schools and universities closed.)

Or have a softer lockdown for longer? YABU)
Unlimited shopping, schools open, Tier 3 rules, I guess.

No because its not something that just ends. Its just there to reduce the number of people in hospitals (we're back to the point of using surgery theaters as emergancy ICU bays again in some hospitals atm) so its always going to be a bit of a fluffy vaugw time line.

@Notanotheruser111 is right. I'm also in Melbourne. I think our second lock down ended up being 13 weeks. They had an initial plan of 6 weeks (starting from when cases were around 700 per day) but it wasn't long enough so then they extended it, made it stricter and made masks mandatory. It eventually resulted in complete suppression so it felt worthwhile but I can't see that happening in UK or USA at this point.

Unfortunately short and sharp won't actually have the effect you hope, it won't completely eradicate the virus. So even if numbers fell a fair bit, they would rise again after a time. and you'd need another two weeks.

I think a continuing cycle of two week shutdowns isn't desirable.

Short and sharp sound better but it has been proved that so called 'firebreaks' don't work.

It's going to be long and hard.

The total lockdown does not work unless you totally enforce it - eg here are people taking the piss all over the place. And afterwards you have to lock your borders and have a strong track and trace.

I would be happy with tiers until June when they anticipate having sufficient % of the population vaccinated.

But tiers where the borders of tiers are policed, so no tier 3 going for meals in tier 2 or 1 and where mixing households in pubs is also policed properly. And tier 3 and 4 should have mass testing as per liverpool to help get asymptomatic people out of. Circulation.

I don't think lockdowns work, because as soon as you let people back out again the infection rates will go back up. Also shutting places is pushing people to all go to the same places. My gym is shut so I go for a walk but I see more people going for my walk and in tesco than I do going to the gym. I feel safer at the gym than in tesco because at least in the gym I can stay away from people.

What about all the people flying into the country from places with high infection rates? Friends have had family fly in from the US for Christmas with no tests or checks on quarantine.

Early and hard worked for NZ - we lost 25 people. And we don't all live on secluded blocks of land with lots of sheep and no close neighbours. However, our covid infection rate going into lockdown was lower than the UK's coming out of lockdown. We also closed our borders to all but citizens and permanent residents and even they on arrival have to stay for 14 days in isolation facilities (fairly nice hotels) to make sure nobody gets into the community with covid and the armed forces are there to ensure that they stay there. You have a sniffle here and you can get tested.

@110APiccadilly does it bollocks equate to the same thing! The firebreak was a joke; schools, colleges and unis carried on.
It's not popular as it inconveniences many people but I strongly believe we need to keep the schools closed - then gradually build up, so key worker children etc same as during last lockdown go in and then the remainder bit by bit. So if you are able to home educate then keep them home to keep the numbers down. No matter what schools do, that number of people on a premises all day is going to be a source of spread.
The university students need to stay in their home town and learn online where possible for now. Shorter but more painful is the only way because there is lockdown fatigue and compliance is deteriorating.

If they don't shut schools and most work places it's completely pointless having any sort of lockdown

Somewhere in between for me.

I’d like to see gyms and kids sport left open.

Schools on a flexible basis- those parents who prefer their kids to home/online school to be allowed. Key years in. Condensed timetable- online learning for PSHE and other non exam subjects. PE exemption for those who do sport outside school.

Shops- close all except essential.

Close borders and stop travel.

We had one in November and it did bugger all. I think it’s time to remove any kind of restrictions, let people shield if they want to.
The damage to the economy isn’t worth the little difference it makes.

I think if they did a hard lockdown for a month it would help. Mainly it would buy time to get a load of vaccinations done. Rumour is the Oxford vaccine will be approved in next few weeks.

So even if numbers would have crept up after coming out a hard lockdown if hundreds of thousands of people got vaccinated in those 4 weeks the immunity might negate this.

The key is the vaccinations. But the nhs is at the brink now and vaccinations by themselves won’t have an effect quickly enough.

@Didyousaynutella

We had one in November and it did bugger all. I think it’s time to remove any kind of restrictions, let people shield if they want to. The damage to the economy isn’t worth the little difference it makes.

The lock down in November wasn’t strict enough, mainly due to schools remaining open.

Lockdowns don't solve the problem,they just push the problem down the road
And ruin people's lives and businesses

I must say I would very much prefer extra tough short lockdown to knock the infection numbers down rather than this nonsense with rules no one bothers to follow. People know they will not have any consequences for breaking the law. Mixing severs households and flying from Tier 4, I’ve seen it all.

We had tough in March and it wasn't short and went on too long losing the benefit of seasonality of the virus. The probability is that we pushed more cases into this winter, when people's immune systems could have copied better through spring and summer.

But are we on the verge of a lockdown ?

I’m in SW and tbh life is totally normal other than masks

@user1487194234

Lockdowns don't solve the problem,they just push the problem down the road And ruin people's lives and businesses

Have you got any other ideas? Lockdowns affect my family greatly in a negative way, but what do you suggest to do instead? Being not vulnerable I don’t mind coming back to normal tomorrow if you ask me. But numbers will soar and people will die. A lot of people will be out of work anyway and much more.