To think a short, hard, lockdown is better than a soft one dragging on for months?

[PrincessNutNuts]

Would you rather go hard for a shorter duration? (YANBU)
(Stay at home order. Daily exercise outside, only see your bubble, shop as infrequently as you can, work from home if you can, most things closed, schools and universities closed.)

Or have a softer lockdown for longer? YABU)
Unlimited shopping, schools open, Tier 3 rules, I guess.

I voted for the short hard lock down. But truthfully it should have happened months ago.
Now I fear we have no choice but a long hard lockdown

orange I work in a school. The kids mostly wear masks when they have to. In the lunch line, corridors etc but they fiddle with them, take them off, leave them lying on their desks, pull the same one out of their pocket every day. Next to useless.

Tier 4 are having the equivalent of a short lock down now aren’t they? Nothing open, no mixing.

How long is short op?

Lockdowns or not, the elephant in the room is ALL the people’s behaviour has to change. It’s pointless having lockdowns if people are still gathering in each others houses against guidelines or not wearing masks in supermarkets or in public transport. We need to enforce the rules more stringently and have stronger immediate punishments. Until that happens these dickhead ‘exempt’ chancers (no exemption just refusing to wear a mask) are going to keep us simmering away.

My frustration is that we (London) have Tier 4 but schools open, which seems to be many of the worst parts of a lockdown without the benefit of reduced transmission (because kids are still mingling). I think this will drag on for many more months and would much rather a stricter, shorter lockdown including things like closed borders and closed schools. And I have a young child, fwiw.

Lockdowns are not working because people are taking no notice and just carrying on doing whatever they want .

Lockdowns don’t work. The virus is here to stay. As soon as a lockdown ends, cases rise again

I think the welsh firebreak rather put paid to that theory.

I think a lot of people were of the belief that we shouldve had a proper lockdiwn in the beginning, to stop all of this. I certainly was.
But as soon as we leave lockdown the numbers are going up massively.

Slightly more worrying is the effect its had on people. People are fed up and people are following the rules less and less as time goes on because "lockdowns/masks/social distancing doesn't work"

There was a post in apical Facebook group a few days ago, where the local hospitals green ward/red ward system isn't able to keep up with covid, and every ward has seen atleast one positive result for Covid19 in the past few days

We need to do something

Unless schools close i dear nothing will change.
I'm a teacher, I desperately want to be in, but I can see with this new variant something is going to have to change. Kids are most definitely spreading it (why they though Covid was any different to every other other bug I have no idea, kids are known "superspreaders") so to reduce transmission they're going to have to curtail school. And get plans sorted quickly instead of last minute

I'd say key years in but yrs 10, 11, 12 and 13 are the ones we've had most cases in school.

It's a nightmare but it is what it is.

@Floralnomad I think the same. I’m in tier 4 and everyone is just going about as normal aside from the shops being closed.
This isn’t proper lockdown and the Welsh firebreak certainly wasn’t going by all my family and friends back home.

I can’t bear the idea of schools and unis closed but there should be a proper testing system to allow this safely for everyone. Some unis managed it last term.
There needs to be higher fines and more policing if the rules/law as well. When I went out a couple of times in Tier 2 it was a joke in terms of people bending the rules - friends hugging, pubs literally making their outdoor spaces ‘indoors’ with sides etc.
Life in Tier 4 is totally shit though, living through the winter like this us going to massively impact mental health.

I think isolation is the major issue with only 20% actually complying with the restrictions and no enforcement whatsoever. Places like China have rigorous enforcement and therefore complete compliance. I'm not sure this would be acceptable in the UK.

The problem is, even now in Tier 4 some people aren't taking any notice.
A short and very sharp lockdown would work if people stuck to it for say 6 weeks.

I'm in the SE, cases very high here. At some point they will start to drop- probably in about a week after schools have been closed for two (just in time for them to go back!).

Has the lockdown helped? Definitely not for the economy, mental health ,with out calculating the long term effects it will have on us and especially our children.
Are we not just prolonging the inevitable and giving the virus more chance to mutate.?
Not all countries have been in lockdown and there percentages are not any worse than ours!

In the first lockdown I chose to keep my job and neglect my children. It was the most stressful period I've ever had in my life. My 2 year old fell down the stairs while I was working (he was OK). I can't go through that again so I don't know what I'll do if they close schools and nurseries again.

Lockdown is completely pointless while our borders are open to travellers from abroad unchecked and while isolating is not actually being adhered to. The numbers were under control in summer until they introduced the allowed people to go on summer holidays and it all took off again. All the countries that have this under control have strict control on their borders and very strict isolation rules. Meanwhile many of DCs friends are abroad for Christmas holidays and I am glad of the staggered return because they will not be isolating.

England never had a real lockdown.

It's tragic. Most people don't care and ignore every rule and guidelines, making it 100 times worst for the few businesses who had to shut down, the kids kept away from school and a proper life.

Tier 4 or not, most people have completely ignored every guidelines, are calling the "bubble or mental health" card making the whole thing pointless, and a mockery of the families who DID follow and miss out on families.

We are now on about the "magical vaccine", pretending that it will end up in a couple of months. Of course it won't.

@ShivD ,we are tier 4 as well , it’s crazy really . My sister lives in a Tier 4 coastal town and she said that when they went for a walk yesterday they had to come home because the seafront was like a BH weekend , no social distancing etc . May as well open the shops at least that would make the outdoors safer for those of us that do want to be careful as all the morons can go to Bluewater etc

Tier 4 won't help much unless schools and Uni's close.

@Snog Agreed, here finding loopholes and adapting their own interpretations seems to be a national pastime. People having multiple bubbles, having 'business meetings' with friends, one family I know have gone to the Maldives 'on business'.

We've been doing hard over the Christmas break. There was lots of Covid around just before the schools broke up. Felt quite scary again. (Like last March.) Assume life goes back to normal on 4th Jan. (Have not heard any different yet.)

Short and tough I'd say.

There’s a lot of complexity to think about though.

Firstly lockdown fatigue. People are really sick of this now, aren’t much less inclined to comply, enforcement is a problem. This is more problematic for hard lockdowns than softer ones. What if a hard lockdown isn’t as effective as hoped and has to be extended?

Secondly, hard lockdowns seem to result in stronger upsurges afterwards. Stands to reason, people cooped up for weeks want to get back to some normality quickly.

Then there are the societal costs of hard lockdowns. The logistics and long term implications of shutting down everything are very significant.

So what do I think?

Get the god damn vaccine out as soon as possible. Nothing is more important than that. In the mean time, try keep it under control as best as we can. I suggest a short (2 week) period of very ‘hard’ lockdown followed by softer measures might be the best solution as more will put too much stress on the population.

Lockdown with schools open was never going to have the effect we need, I’m sure most people working in schools could see that.

Lockdowns are only part of the answer, we need more community testing, and even the testing we have access to at the moment needs to be improved. Results are taking too long to come back, if they are coming back at all, and people who are obviously ill are being refused tests if they answer questions honestly because they don’t fit the tiny criteria. Yet when they do lie to get a test, they come back positive.