Ban on new petrol/diesel cars by 2030 - AIBU to be excited?

[almostautumn]

The government are set to announce a ban on sales of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030. As someone who lives in a polluted city (London) and worries about the effect that carbon emissions are having on my family’s health, I’m so excited by this news because I think it will really change our children’s lives for the better. And it’s fantastic that it’s only 10 years away!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54981425

There was a dicussion locally on this. Currently there is a ton of housing where there are no possibilities for charging. Some houses don't have drives, allocated spaces. What about people in flats, do they stick a charger out the window?

The infrastructure isn't there to allow this. Nor is the public transport in most areas.

The infrastructure isn't there to allow this

A lot can happen in ten years.

I think @bionicname 's idea was that you would own two battery packs, swap in and out as needed. Pop it out of the car and charge it via a socket in the frontroom.

I would love an electric car; just can't afford it. I do think it is a pr thing though. Taking something highly visible and used by the public and putting it at the forefront of environmental issues. Like carrier bags, it's lovely that people are using less but really the amount of plastic saved by not using them is dwarfed by the amount of plastic used by supermarkets overall. I think you need a cohesive strategy not a sound bite.

And yes, Teslas cost an enormous amount. But we’re talking about ten years time. Top end innovations trickle down to the mass market over a period of years - that’s exactly how the motor industry works.

If you’re saying “I won’t be able to use an electric car in 2030 because I need it to do X”. then people saying that Tesla’s can do X now is a very relevant response, because Nissans will be able to do X by 2030.

A lot can happen in ten years.

Yes it can. But it needs more than a lot. It really isn't going to happen in ten years. Be fab if it does. But it won't.

Electric cars are no different in concept to that. 90% + of the use scenarios will be met by home, workplace or destination charging once or twice a week, and most of the rest by nightly charging , only a few people will be needing motorway stops for mid-journey charging, and probably only for rare journeys like holidays.

I think 90% + is very niave. An extremely large amount of people won't have charging capabilities at or near their home.

In addition the infrastructure needed for parking at many jobs is already not large enough without having the added pressure of needing charging points and the same will apply to supermarkets or other end destinations.

People can love the idea as much as they like but the truth is even in 20 years time we won't have the infrastructure needed to enable everyone to charge their vehicles. It's just not going to happen.

@TalbotAMan if you lease you don't get the 56p mileage in the NHS, you get something like 15p I think from memory ? Which is because the higher rate isn't just about fuel costs but also wear and tear on your own vehicle.

For those thinking about on street parking. Just round the corner from DD's student flat there is a street of EV chargers.

They looked like parking meters from a distance but weren't. They were spaced out along the road, each meter covering two parking spaces.

Whether 2030 is realistic I don't know. A lot more investment will be needed especially in areas where there are no driveways or flats, etc.

However the number of EV chargers have increased massively over the last few years. Often you don't even realise how many can be found, until you go looking for them.

And the new fast chargers will make a huge difference- being able to charge the car to 80% in half an hour will make a huge difference on long motorway drives for example.

The range in ev have increased a lot too. I have a small run around EV which only has a small range - ideal for shorter journeys. I only drive 3 miles to work and back each day (no I can't walk or cycle for a range of reasons not least time and the fact I have arthritis) and public transport is not an option for the journey.) it costs me about £2.40 a week to charge my car.

The bigger EVs Dh is looking at when he changes his car next year all do 250-300+ real life miles on a charge.

Longer term or should be a great thing. But it will need a fair amount of investment to make it work and whether the government will provide that is another matter.

@FixTheBone

I'm also not sure why everyone is insisting that BEVs all need a range of 3-400miles +

Everyone is perfectly happy to accept that their smartphones need plugging in every night for the benefits that having a smartphone brings, and some people that really hammer them happily have worked out ways of charging them through the day if needed.

Electric cars are no different in concept to that. 90% + of the use scenarios will be met by home, workplace or destination charging once or twice a week, and most of the rest by nightly charging , only a few people will be needing motorway stops for mid-journey charging, and probably only for rare journeys like holidays.

I travel 3-400 miles in a single day for work at least twice a month. I suppose I could ask the clients I visit if I can plug my car in while I am with them.

I don't charge my phone every night, it needs charging about twice a week and I'd be pissed off if I was expected to plug my car in every pissing night because I was doing 50-100 miles the next day. Plus when I'm already doing a 12-14 hour day, I don't want to be queuing up for the overpriced electricity, which costs more per mile than petrol, at the service station.

@TalbotAMan

There's absolutely no chance those costs will stay static if there's a significant uptake. Whatever's lost in fuel revenue will be recouped elsewhere, either by levies on EVs once there's no alternative or by increasing everyone's electricity costs.

I can't see it happening - rural areas don't have anything like the infrastructure. Nor does the electricity grid. And ten years is not very long in infrastructure terms. And the country hasn't even started dealing with the costs of Covid lockdowns - furlough means we've fallen off an economic cliff but most of us haven't hit the bottom and felt the impact yet - we're not going to have a load of spare money to build infrastructure quickly.

Don’t you just love MN where buying a second hand Tesla for £40k is just about affordable.

And I bet anyone who has the money to spunk away £40k on their latest conscious saver are happy to hop on a plane for their long weekend in Paris, holiday Bali and skiing in the alps for Christmas.

Not that I could even afford a new car but I can never even park in the same postcode as where I live. So how would I be able to charge an electric car.

Proudboomer - our only car for 5 years was a second hand (ex demo model) Renault Zoe that cost £9k. Now I appreciate that not a lot of people would want to manage with that range. However a brand new Zoe 40 or even a Tesla 3 bought today is not going to be 40k in 5 years time and there is a lot of evidence that battery life is very good (see the article I posted up thread).

@HappyChristmasTreeRex

I think we do need to do this, but better alternatives must become available to those not in London/big cities. There is virtually no public transport where I live and electric cars are stupidly expensive, take ages to charge and don't go far enough.

Our electric car fast charges in 30 minutes, giving us a range of 280 miles. For longer journeys stop at a charger, plug in, have a cup of coffee, and continue.

It's really concerning because there is no doubt any present or future British government won't be capable of putting in the infrastructure, for those who physically can't charge their car by their house, of which there will be hundreds of thousands of people, what will they be forced to do? Fork out trying to remain petrol for as long as possible which will likely be expensive also if those cars get harder to come by and increase in value plus they will obviously tax fuel highly.

I am all for electric cars, I've got a drive way I'm fine and would welcome cheaper running costs, but for some of my family I really can't see how it would logistically work unless there is a radical shake up in infrastructure, FAST!

Horrifying to me too, electric really only works in cities or for people doing shorter runs with time in-between to recharge. I think hybrid is the way they should be going, a kind of half-way house, that way for all the shorter stuff its electric and for when you are out of charge / longer journeys the car can still be used.

@110APiccadilly

I can't see it happening - rural areas don't have anything like the infrastructure. Nor does the electricity grid. And ten years is not very long in infrastructure terms. And the country hasn't even started dealing with the costs of Covid lockdowns - furlough means we've fallen off an economic cliff but most of us haven't hit the bottom and felt the impact yet - we're not going to have a load of spare money to build infrastructure quickly.

Clamping down on investment because of the costs of Covid and attempting to save enough money through austerity to pay those costs back is the absolute last thing we should do. The world is awash with cheap money and everyone from the IMF down agrees that we need Keynesian investment solutions to recover.

Personally I’d be funding increased recruitment in understaffed public sector workforces like police, courts, social work, health and schools. But that’s a whole other thread: Green New Deal plans are a perfectly reasonable response to the situation.

What irritates me is we get these big headline decisions, but with no detail or evidence on how they will make it work in practice, no actual dedication to wanting it to happen. But BJ won't be PM in 10 years so what does he care, it'll be someone else's problem. All style, no substance.

I was a sceptic and saw lots of problems before we got one. We started with a PHEV on a 3yr lease (VW golf GTE) and at the beginning of last month got our fully electric IPACE (on a great lease deal as it would be too expensive to buy outright)
Yes they are a quite a bit easier to have if you are 'middle class' but things are changing very rapidly in the EV market so from 3years ago when I became properly conscious of it there has been massive changes in both EV types and choices and also infrastructure so it will be interesting to see how it evolves.
I thought there was very little of charging infrastructure but actually once you become aware you realise how much is actually out there, and there is a whole lot more of it than you think.
The IPace we charge 1-2 times a week overnight. On the home charger it's fairly quick but slower if you need to use the ordinary 3pin plug but still overnight. We are currently charging from the 3pin whilst we have works to install solar panels to the garage (as well as other building work) which will eventually be used to charge the car. I have's even come close to running out of charge yet, it's very clear how much you have and is the same as petrol in that aspect. We've done a few long runs out as well as day to day and it's not been an issue although we were a little nervous 1st trip (unnecessary) it's official test range is 298miles but I reckon it's more like 250.
It's clearly the premium end of EVs, it's quite big and technically 4WD and I think I would have preferred the VW i3 just for size but that wasn't available when I needed to swap lease deals. I do generally like the car though.
Why I say it favours being MC is yes it's a whole lot easier atm if you have a driveway and it's not a cheap option atm although it's more affordable than it was and it definitely requires cash up front if you want to do other supporting works like PV.
I think the whole market is changing though and there is no one solution to doing transport better, it will require government and private investment in both private and public transport and is happening whether we like it or not.
I also suspect that CV19 and the effect it has had on home working for office workers will also shape the argument in years to come.

Oh yes and on the noise thing - mine makes an artificial noise, it's a bit weird actually but you can def hear it

For everyone worried about how the National Grid will cope. I understand where you are coming from, but this is not new information for NG. They have been planning for this scenario for more than a decade. They even produce Future Energy Scenarios, which include things like various levels of electric car ownership.

So much of our electricity comes from renewable sources now, and with development of electricity storage technology, we can make sure that electricity is available when we need it. Also, there is a lot of development in the area of “load shifting” - ie incentivising people to charge their cars when electricity is available, e.g. overnight when demand is low.

It will be challenging no doubt, but in the industry it is widely accepted that any path to net zero carbon emissions will be challenging - but it has to be done.

The main challenge will be charging infrastructure, and the industry scaling up to meet that kind of demand for both electric cars and infrastructure.

People keep saying there is more charging points around than we realise. But in most places I’ve seen them there are only one or two in each car park , which is fine for now but useless when most vehicles are electric.

Sometimes I queue for petrol but the longest I’ve waited is 20 minutes for 5/6 cars to use the pump first. Those sorts of queues for electric even with 20 min charging time would be hours. Completely impractical.

Someone mentioned there 6 year old car “still” does 80 miles comfortably. So anyone who can only afford a car that’s 5 years old can only do 80 miles when the car is new to them? I’m guessing that would drop by 20 in a couple of years and then that’s pretty useless. Unless the batteries don’t cost the earth to replace ?

I really hope this gets pushed back. We need carrots like good public transport, good cycle infrastructure and affordable reliable electric cars so that it makes economic sense to ditch the petrol/ diesel. Not £40k cars or you’re fucked!

There's a street near me where they've implemented enough spots for everyone to charge so of they can implement this/improve better life that sounds good.

Plus it will be all new cars so no need to buy a brand new one.

I do agree people are dying, esp in London so as long as infrastructure can be put in place them this sounds good.

10 years is a long time, did electric cars even exist to the public 10 years ago?

I do think they should be made louder though, I have had hearing and don't always notice them.