Ban on new petrol/diesel cars by 2030 - AIBU to be excited?

[almostautumn]

The government are set to announce a ban on sales of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030. As someone who lives in a polluted city (London) and worries about the effect that carbon emissions are having on my family’s health, I’m so excited by this news because I think it will really change our children’s lives for the better. And it’s fantastic that it’s only 10 years away!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54981425

@the80sweregreat you do know that the cars are locked when they re charging not only locked like you know all other cars but also locked to the charging cable.
They are no more vulnerable to theft than regular cars and are probably more traceable as most have a link to the owners phone telling them where it is and how it's charging. Mine tells me if I forget to lock it which is more than my old car did.

It's good they won't be stolen! That is great. It's just the rest of it needs sorting now!

In my area they are just building more and more houses (1000+ within a 5 mile radius in the 14 years I've lived here) with zero improvements in public transport, health facilities, schools or roads.

Government will need to get a lot more serious about public transport outside London.

Here every single one of those new households has (and needs) at least one car.

Just stopping sales of new fossil fuelled vehicles is not enough - unless you only care about what happens in London of course.

I imagine it will take 10 years to see a real difference. I buy 10+ year old cars as do most people I know, as that's all we can afford. So I probably won't get a fancy electric one until 2040!

@DynamoKev

In my area they are just building more and more houses (1000+ within a 5 mile radius in the 14 years I've lived here) with zero improvements in public transport, health facilities, schools or roads.

Government will need to get a lot more serious about public transport outside London.

Here every single one of those new households has (and needs) at least one car.

Just stopping sales of new fossil fuelled vehicles is not enough - unless you only care about what happens in London of course.

Yeah, here too. Hundreds and hundreds of cars parked along the roads, no drivrways no charging points

@CuriousaboutSamphire it's not a direct comparison but it is important to recognise we did make a giant sea change in car driving, and there were the same concerns about costs, performance etc and people saying it would never happen but it did

It involved developing technology & infrastructure/product changes but also a change in attitude.

And it didn't happen overnight and that is what's going to happen with this, the ban on sales of new cars isn't going to immediately affect everyone but will force a gradual change over the next 30years or so

Not a pick up, but I'll certainly consider buying a new car in 8-9 years time with a view to keeping it for a good 15+ years after that providing that there aren't costs involved to 'nudge' people towards electric.

@DynamoKev By 2030 there will be 2nd hand electric vehicles with that capability. Given an outrageous number of -idiots- amongst my horsey friends pay top £ for an unreliable piece of junk like anything from JLR in the last decade, I think they can afford a mid range suv in 2030 if not 2035.

The rest of them with lower price tag cars will have equivalents, the range of SUVs and pick ups available is growing now, as will the 2nd hand market.

Anyone left out still can get a 2nd hand ICE car for towing. You'd be an idiot to buy a new ICE car before the cut off, depreciation is bad now, imagine how bad it'll be then when they're the undesirable minority. Think about how many garages will slowly end their ICE maintenance because it becomes an unviable business compared to retraining for the electric market? Rising price of fuel (especially as demand drops), rising price of insurance (as safety systems are updated in EVs so insurance on ICE becomes higher - inability to replace like for like too), horrific tax to add as a deterrent.

They will only stop the sale of new fossil fuelled cars, you will still be able to buy second hand, the price of these will go through the roof unless they start closing down petrol stations. Your small economical petrol car will start to be worth a lot more once they stop making them.

In a similar vein but one that seems to get less publicity I'm curious to find out what people think on the existing policy to ban gas boilers in new build houses from 2025 with proposals to extend that to all new boilers although this hasn't been adopted yet or given a date but is likely to come in.

Barbara, Of course they will nudge us towards these new cars. See all the comments below how it will be done! By stealth and making petrol / diesel cars more expensive to run and maintain. They have been doing this for a while as it is by this tax and that tax etc.

Think about how many garages will slowly end their ICE maintenance because it becomes an unviable business compared to retraining for the electric market?

Not for a good 10 years after cut off.

@wonkylegs

In a similar vein but one that seems to get less publicity I'm curious to find out what people think on the existing policy to ban gas boilers in new build houses from 2025 with proposals to extend that to all new boilers although this hasn't been adopted yet or given a date but is likely to come in.

Equally concerned. They want to replace methane boilers with hydrogen fuelled boilers.

For all the reasons outlined by MyDucksArentInARow that doesn't sound like a good idea.

Even if they sort out the containment and safety concerns, it sounds like it's going to be like electric cars, where they conveniently gloss over the production costs and energy requirements to push their agenda. Only to then find that a loss of tax revenue causes a great hole in the budget and increases the charge to the consumer anyway.

The gas boiler one isn't, on the face of it, as onerous. There are many houses out here that don't get gas and have already replaced fuel oil with electric heat pumps. Having seen the size of the units for those reduce over the last 5 years I can see how that could work for many people. Though it is bloody expensive and you don't get really properly hot water, for us it would be a no go, tudor building can't pull apart the necessary bits, don't have underfloor heating etc.

But it will be interesting to see how it does pan out

@BarbaraofSeville
Most of the solutions I'm seeing (I work in construction) are actually again electric based, most aren't revolutionary just a step change in existing technology
It's easier in new builds because you can put in the supporting building efficiencies that make electrical boilers/ chp/ pump technologies etc work more efficiently and reduce the energy needed overall.
I think it's more tricky with existing buildings due to the poor quality of some housing stock - existing green retrofit initiatives aren't that great although it's a step in the right direction.

@CuriousaboutSamphire at the moment 84% of U.K. housing uses mains gas as main heat source.

Why tell me that? But it is good that you can see that some things are too onerous to change easily... it just depends on where you live, literally!

Out here gas is NOT standard. And all new builds have had heat sink thingies installed for a few years. The same geographical issues that mean gas is not standard make it harder for us to have EVs.

I have two EV's on one I pay £200 per month and one is £400 per month.

We paid £600 outright for our second hand petrol car. You live in a different world!

It'll be another rich v poor thing with these new electric cars with the poor being priced out of owning one.
Yet more division.

@Bakeachocolatecaketoday

I'm afraid you too have swallowed the propaganda.

Nope, no propaganda swallowing from me, just 16 years experience in the trade. I'm also not anti EV tbh. There's just no chance this myth of cheap, reliable and easy personal transport for all will happen. Those who have jumped on the EV train early benefit from all the incentives but once the uptake takes off they'll go.

Batteries are not wearing out and don't need replacing. There is already history from 2012 and the batteries are fine.

Battery manufacturers, you know the real experts on batteries, only give a 5-8 year warranty at the moment, so even they feel that after that time the risk of problems developing is so great they won't guarantee it. Yes some might last longer and hopefully battery tech continues to improve but it's a folly to assume you won't encounter issues. And once EVs become mainstream I can guarantee you the warranty lengths won't be nearly as generous.

EV's are much more simple than petrol engines and more simple to fix.

Really, really not and the fact you think that shows you've not the foggiest idea. EVs and ICEVs are completely different beasts EVs are high voltage systems that require specialist equipment and training to work on for one! Yes EVs have less moving parts and yes EVs require less in the way of annual servicing but when it comes to repairs/problems outwith routine maintenance an EV definitely isn't easier to fix. Electrics on cars is now more aligned with computer/electronic engineering (which is why you have the auto electrician/diagnostics engineer specialisms in garages) than traditional mechanics and if anything it's more complex on EVs as every system needs to be integrated to the battery management.

Training - yes different but easier and garages don't want to do it as repairs are less costly and servicing much much cheaper and simpler.

As above it's not easier it's completely different. A garage that specialises in diagnostics will be able to transition easier than a fast fit type place but you'll still need additional investment.

The reason garages don't want to do it just now are twofold. 1) It's expensive to set up as you need to be qualified and have all the equipment to safely work on high voltage systems and EVs in general. That means new tools, ramps, workwear etc as well as training up your staff. 2) The demand's not there just now to justify the investment needed for most garages. That said as EVs become more popular there will be a huge lack of people able to do it (currently only 5% of garages are equipped to carry out EV work and it's estimated that by 2030 that will only be up to 15% or so). That'll mean those that are able to carry out EV work will be able to name their price and bang goes your "cheap maintenance".

...You'll be telling me I can't drive my EV in the rain next.... you sound a bit gullible if you think normal cars don't have electrics, and don't have ECU systems that need calibrating.

Sigh....electrics and outside don't mix. It's as simple as that. Car manufactures go to great lengths to protect the electronics and wiring in cars from the elements but it's a losing battle. Have a look at how many cars are scrapped now because of electronic/wiring issues, electrics are expensive to fix and the more complex they get the more expensive it gets.
Yes a normal car has ECUs but if I change an AC compressor on a ICE car I don't have to calibrate anything. If I renew a set of pads on an ice car the calibration is as simple as telling the ECU it's been changed. On an EV I will have to calibrate the new compressor so that the battery management system can manage it properly. To do that I'll need the right diagnostic equipment and training. It was also increase the time spent doing a job and thus the cost to you.
Just as an FYI i currently spend anywhere between £5-10k per year on diagnostic equipment and software and that's by no means pricey. You want a manufacturer specific package you're looking at £10-20k a pop, that's got to be paid for somehow and if I can't recoup it from servicing etc then it'll just be added to the labour.

End game like PP have said, the cars are to be autonomous Mmm. That'll be interesting on windy Cornish lanes when you meet the bus and have to reverse for ages.

There's a definite urban/rural divide here. As PPs have said, if you live in an area where the power supply can be erratic in bad weather, the broadband isn't always great, and you can't get a mobile signal depending where you stand in the garden; how on earth are HMG going to put in sufficient infrastructure for this to work?

No way could they use street lights or straight into the pavement charging point where I am, as there are no street lights, or pavements.

It's all pie in the sky for the moment - and I agree that the lithium mining is an issue, whether that is here or abroad.

Ten years away (if it happens) means the large Chelsea Tractors that blight our streets will be here probably for another 20-25 years.

Start sooner by having restrictions on maximum CO2 for new cars in perhaps a year or two, and separate driving tests for larger cars.

I think we have a different definition of poor. The bottom decile in the UK, especially in the cities but also in the suburbs and even the country, are far less likely to own a car. They’re paying the cost of pollution without any benefits from car ownership. Just because it’s the status quo doesn’t mean it’s not unfair.

And the poorest 50% worldwide are bearing the brunt of climate change.

A lot of the problems listed are either fictional or solvable in the time available, but some won’t be. Someone driving 500 miles a day for work who doesn’t already take a couple of half hour breaks will have to build that into their schedule, including diversions if necessary and yes it may mean that their services become less cost effective.

Individual car ownership will probably become more expensive again, because yes, eventually some form of road mileage tax will replace the revenue from fuel duty - probably I suspect with additional allowances or subsidies for rural dwellers for whom better public transport is never going to be a reasonable substitute for a private car.

I don’t think that we should pretend that this change will be neutral or better for absolutely everyone - there will definitely be some losers; but there are many losers from the status quo as well. These legitimate downsides aren’t the same as it being impossible.

It's just a "nudge" to get car manufacturers to develop realistic electric cars and to get local authorities to start to think about charging points.

It's far too soon to actually implement it. The date will keep getting pushed back until about 2040.

Just look at the digital radio fiasco. The same happened - lots of "noise" about digital being enforced and the old analogue being turned off, then the target dates kept being moved, and we still have analogue radio, long afterwards.

We won’t have the capacity to generate the required level of electricity from renewable sources. Electric cars are prohibitively expensive and require cobalt and tin that are mined by exploited workers and even children in the developing word. Disposal of old batteries creates toxic pollution risk.