US Elections - Trump or Biden, who will win?

[JustSaying101]

Intrigued to see who everyone thinks will win the current US presidential elections? I wouldn't personally vote for Trump, but I think he will manage to win another term. What do you think?

YABU = Trump will win
YANBU = Biden will win

Place your bets now!

I’m going to be on tenterhooks until late this afternoon! Hopefully we will have more clarity by then.

Thanks @NotDavidTennant.

CNN is only counting electoral college votes where the state has actually declared.

67 electoral college votes left in it by my count - that's for the remaining states which are still swinging Trump's way - and those would get him to 280 if he wins them

However some pretty big cities have still to finish counting (Detroit, Pittsburgh, Philiadelphia, Raleigh, Atlanta, etc) and it's these where the Democrat vote tends to be concentrated

Hmmm ...

Boden has just taken the lead by 0.3% is Wisconsin - that's on votes counted so far. The state has 10 electoral college votes.

That's due to the result in Brown County.

Bloody autocorrect again!

@wowfudge

Bloody autocorrect again!

It's the most Mumsnet autocorrect fail I've ever seen, though

If you go with 238 for Biden:

Wisconsin & Nevada (where he's currently leading) would get him to 254.

So he would need at least one of the other swing states to get to 270. Michigan (16 votes) is a possibility - he's only about 44,000 behind Trump there at the moment.

Boden has just taken the lead by 0.3% is Wisconsin

I'm sure Boden would win if Mumsnet were voting!

I've never bought anything from bloody Boden!

Anyone else wondering what's going on in Pennsylvania?
The other east coast states have done over 90% of the count but they're only up to 64%

Lots more postal votes than usual taking longer to process?

Guardian on Pennsylvania:

The state also overhauled its election laws last year and is allowing no-excuse mail-in voting for the first time. There could be as many as 10 times as many mail-in votes as there were in 2016, Kathy Boockvar, the state’s top election official, said on Sunday.

Pennsylvania law also prohibits election officials from processing mail-in ballots until election day, which means it could take days to know the winner in the state, leaving a window for Trump to claim victory before all the votes are counted. Boockvar has said she’s confident the majority of votes will be counted by Friday.

It’s possible that the entire national election could encounter a physical bottleneck in Philadelphia, the state’s most populous city. Every mail-in ballot in the city – as many as 400,000 – is to be counted inside a cavernous convention center downtown using new equipment and newly trained staff observing social distancing measures.

Yes, Pennsylvania has a large number of ballots sent through the post and they're still scanning them.

CNN is only counting electoral college votes where the state has actually declared.

Thank you @wowfudge

Interesting - thanks for that on Pennsylvania

According to the BBC there are already 437 lawsuits pending which relate to this election ... seems to me there'll probably be many more by the time they're done

Pennsylvania's Republican leaders made a rule that postal votes could not be counted as they arrive. Other states count them upon receipt and keep those numbers secret until polling closes.

It's like Pennsylvania wanted to create confusion and delay in a key swing state where the postal votes are likely to push the result to Biden.

Pennsylvania law also prohibits election officials from processing mail-in ballots until election day, which means it could take days to know the winner in the state, leaving a window for Trump to claim victory before all the votes are counted.

How irritating!

Looks like Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin should be next to declare.

I don't know - how do you guarantee secrecy before the polls have closed versus only counting once they've closed and ensuring postal votes are protected prior to counting. Waiting until the polls have closed sound better to me.

Can't believe that Biden is the best the Democrats can come up with.

Sounds like Biden has won Wisconsin as expected.

how do you guarantee secrecy before the polls have closed versus only counting once they've closed and ensuring postal votes are protected prior to counting

I don't think you can, quite honestly; it's a hell of a "secret" to keep and just too risky IMO

That said, the way this is going, I'm only surprised nobody's taken a box of matches to wherever the postal votes are being kept in each state ...

Yes - I did think about the possibility of losing postal votes in a fire.