US Elections - Trump or Biden, who will win?

[JustSaying101]

Intrigued to see who everyone thinks will win the current US presidential elections? I wouldn't personally vote for Trump, but I think he will manage to win another term. What do you think?

YABU = Trump will win
YANBU = Biden will win

Place your bets now!

Thanks @Dongdingdong, that's useful.

@WitchesSpelleas I think the BBC is a bit behind - Maine and Arizona have already declared and there are seven more to go.

@Whitecottoncandy Agreed! Don't know if people are aware but you can download the CNN and then watch live from the UK. That's what I'm doing, on my phone.

Total votes needed to win: 270.

if Biden wins Nevada and Wisconsin (where he’s currently in the lead) he will end up with 254.

If Trump wins the other five states (where he’s currently in the lead) he will end up with 283.

In 2016 Trump won 304 electoral college votes to Hillary’s 227.

@Utterlybutterly8

Total votes needed to win: 270.

if Biden wins Nevada and Wisconsin (where he’s currently in the lead) he will end up with 254.

If Trump wins the other five states (where he’s currently in the lead) he will end up with 283.

Are the postal votes counted completely separately, or are they included in those left to count per state IYSWIM? From what I've read elsewhere, it's the postal votes that will swing it for Biden. Or am I being too optimistic??

@bananaphone325 good question - I’m not sure!

Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan would get Biden to 270.

Thanks @Dongdingdong - I'll see if I can find a US site to follow.

I found this from ABC:

Some states allow the "processing" of mail-in ballots — the often time-consuming flattening and opening of envelopes, verifying signatures and sorting ballots into the correct piles for tabulation — to begin as many as three weeks before election day.

Some only allow it to begin on election day itself, which can lead to a chaotic and lengthy count.

That's the process in several key swing states.

So it sounds like postal votes are already included in the totals when each state declares, but I may be wrong.

When will we start to hear more results from the final seven states? About 3-4pm UK time maybe?

It varies from state to state. As I understand it, it's individual counties that have declared when they have counted all the votes received, whether by post or in person. Whether they reach a point where a lead is unassailable even if ever outstanding vote were for the other side then maybe they declare, but I doubt it. It's normal to count all votes before declaring a winner in an area.

@Dongdingdong

When will we start to hear more results from the final seven states? About 3-4pm UK time maybe?

I think it'll be around that time.

Also, I’m watching BBC One live and it has Biden on 224, but Google have him on 238. Which is right? Surely BBC One can’t be that behind?

@Utterlybutterly8

I found this from ABC:

Some states allow the "processing" of mail-in ballots — the often time-consuming flattening and opening of envelopes, verifying signatures and sorting ballots into the correct piles for tabulation — to begin as many as three weeks before election day.

Some only allow it to begin on election day itself, which can lead to a chaotic and lengthy count.

That's the process in several key swing states.

So it sounds like postal votes are already included in the totals when each state declares, but I may be wrong.

Where the overall votes in a state haven't all been counted, individual counties within that have declared. How many votes remain up for grabs and the demographic in the counties yet to declare is what makes it unpredictable - will a formerly Republican county turn Democrat or vice versa or will the vote go the way it has done historically? E.g. in Georgia one of the counties yet to declare includes Atlanta which is usually overwhelmingly Democrat.

Guardian also have Biden on 238. Come on Auntie, keep up FFS!

Love the fact that even our MN voting is 50/50!!!!!

@Dongdingdong - try CNN instead for up to date results

I can’t find a categorical figure for how many votes Biden currently has. Trump seems to be on 213 consistently across all news channels. Does anyone know?

@wowfudge BBC saying 224, CNN 227 and Guardian 238 for Biden

Associated Press has Biden 238 and Trump 213

CNN is showing the percentage vote split from declared counts in the states yet to declare an overall result. It's neck and neck. They're also showing what percentage of the vote is yet to be declared.

@Ihaveyourback

Love the fact that even our MN voting is 50/50!!!!!

That amused me too given the current state of play.

Associated Press has Biden 238 and Trump 213

Thanks - I will go with that!

The different figures are because none of the states have finished counting yet. The results so far are projections and different outlets are varying in how conservative they are being in these projection (for instance some have called Arizona for Biden, but others still have it as undecided).