We're on the home run, let's stand together for a blue wave 🤗🌊 (Trump thread #107

[Roussette]

Here we go!

I'm putting off turning the telly on until 4pm PST (7pm New York).

Of all the nights for MN to get 'glitchy'!

From the FT.

An estimated 3.7m suspicious robocalls have been received in the US on election day warning recipients to "stay safe and stay home".

The calls have been focused in several swing states, including Florida and Texas, though California and New York have also been heavily targeted,

Some of these robocalls were suggesting that voting would be extended until tomorrow. All false of course

today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/11/03/yougov-2020-mrp-model-forecasts
YouGov MRP Model Forecast

(This is the type of forecast which has been most accurate in the UK in the last few elections).

We estimate that Biden will win the national popular vote by 9% with a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Our state level estimates are shown in the table below. Biden is leading in 28 states with 350 electoral votes and Trump is leading in 20 states with 126 electoral votes. In the remaining 3 states (with 62 electoral votes), Biden and Trump are within 2% of each other. Our best estimate for the electoral college is that Biden will win 382 electoral votes with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 314 to 412 electoral votes.

The cruical big call on this is Texas going blue. Which would be HUGE. It also has Florida and North Carolina going blue.

This doesn't take into account any dodgy doing with voter suppression though, so I'm inclined to take a huge pinch of salt with this.

Harry Lambert @harrytlambert
Fox News Exit Poll, favourability ratings:

Kamala Harris 49%
Mike Pence 41%

Democratic Party 49%
Republicans 43%

Lots of pro-Biden results on policy in Fox poll.

I haven't had a problem posting but I can see some posters have!

I'm going for a sleep as not much is in yet... in the words of Arnie "I shall return"
😂

Of all the nights to get glitchy on us!

I haven't started watching returns yet. I'm waiting until the first polls officially close.

today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/11/03/yougov-2020-mrp-model-forecasts
YouGov MRP Model Forecast

(This is the type of forecast which has been most accurate in the UK in the last few elections).

We estimate that Biden will win the national popular vote by 9% with a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Our state level estimates are shown in the table below. Biden is leading in 28 states with 350 electoral votes and Trump is leading in 20 states with 126 electoral votes. In the remaining 3 states (with 62 electoral votes), Biden and Trump are within 2% of each other. Our best estimate for the electoral college is that Biden will win 382 electoral votes with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 314 to 412 electoral votes.

The cruical big call on this is Texas going blue. Which would be HUGE. It also has Florida and North Carolina going blue.

This doesn't take into account any dodgy doing with voter suppression though, so I'm inclined to take a huge pinch of salt with this.

what is going on with posting on this thread?!

I'm putting off turning the telly on until 4pm PST (7pm New York).

Of all the nights for MN to get 'glitchy'!

Thinking maybe a couple of hours sleep is a good idea and tune in again later hoping MN and the polls are behaving then!

BBC News reporting that the Biden campaign are feeling very confident.

Fingers crossed, but don’t count your chickens folks!

Right, I’m off to bed. I’ve got work tomorrow so can’t stay up. Based on the last few nights I will be up at some point with CaveBaby so I will check in if that is the case.

@colouringindoors

I can't bear anyone saying their optimistic for Biden - don't want it to be jinxed!!! 🤞🤞🤞

Agreed, haven’t they heard about invoking the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing?!

Someone needs to go outside, turn around three times and spit. And curse.

Sorry, that’ll be my last West Wing reference tonight 😜

Yep I'm resisting watching any live coverage for a bit yet too. I'll probably turn on CNN in about an hour.

I've got the DC's lunches packed for school tomorrow (because I'll definitely be worthless in the morning!).

In a few mins I'll harass them into the shower and bed then make some coffee before settling in.

@colouringindoors

what is going on with posting on this thread?!

It's a bit unfortunate, isn't it? Feel like I'm going crazy.

Right, decision made, I'm going to bed for a little while, I'll be back around 1am!

The guy doing the exit polls on CNN seems very excited

Multiple posts all over the place

🤯🤯🤯🤯

The Spectator Index@spectatorindex
JUST IN: US election turnout likely to reach 67%, the highest in over a century.

(Via The New York Times)

@Roussette

From the FT.

An estimated 3.7m suspicious robocalls have been received in the US on election day warning recipients to "stay safe and stay home".

The calls have been focused in several swing states, including Florida and Texas, though California and New York have also been heavily targeted,

Some of these robocalls were suggesting that voting would be extended until tomorrow. All false of course

A friend in Florida also had the intimidating email from the Proud Boys late October. "You will vote for Trump on Election Day or we will come after you... etc"

And yet apparently it's the left wingers that do all the bullying.

Those in the US, do you think there’s a reasonable chance of riots tonight? I certainly wouldn’t want to be in a US city tonight and would be hunkering down if I was.

The multiple posts are all over Mumsnet, not just this thread. Spectacular night for Mumsnet to go crazeee.

I just got back from voting. I've never seen a turn out like it, people lining up all round the building, parking lot overflowing. Normally I'd be in and out in five minutes, but it took a good 45 minutes to get done.

While DH and I were waiting to vote his niece nearly started a family row by sending a group text of her outside a polling place wearing a mask with Grab him by the Ballot printed on it

I'm an absolute gibbering idiot right now. I have no idea how I'll cope with another four years if we don't manage to flush the tangerine turd.

Political Polls @PpollingNumbers
JUST IN: Biden camp internals show “strong” numbers in WI, MI, NC, GA, PA, AZ & NE-2. FL is true toss-up, senior adviser tells @NorahODonnell
Source says not seeing “red tide of low-propensity voters” for Trump. Dem says they are over-performing in WI, NC and GA.

Via @cbsnews

@HoldMyLobster - did they identify themselves as Proud Boys? Or similar or wtaf?

Should Biden win will this ever be investigated?

Brill to see the CNN exit poll showing more minorities have voted.