We're on the home run, let's stand together for a blue wave 🤗🌊 (Trump thread #107

[Roussette]

Here we go!

And I raise a glass to GingerIvy too, she always linked such interesting stuff and was a stalwart on here.

Coco and EwDavid and Fiderer and sorrel and apologies to anyone I might've missed... welcome to our Blue Wave Bar 🌊🌊

I've been distracting myself by doing some freezer christmas cooking, it must be bad, I'm a last minute person normally.

One of my DDs has told me to put it all out my mind by watching Borat on Amazon Prime... trouble is Guiliani is in it, so there's no getting away from it all

This is going to be interesting to watch because there are so many confounding factors going on this year I suspect it's been near impossible to poll with a strong accuracy.

From a non American perspective it seems to me that Trump has a solid base of varying numbers in most states but the pomp and bluster of the rallies could make that appear bigger than it is.

Biden's campaign has been pretty woeful and I don't see much enthusiasm for him as a candidate but I'm not sure how much that matters because this election is basically a referendum on Trump. It's not really Trump v Biden it's Trump v Not Trump.

In some respects a clear landslide one way or the other would make things easier (not to be confused with better) for the US as a country but I think it's more likely to be close run. Followed by lot of accusations of fraud from both sides and contesting of ballots via the courts which will be a hideous and fraught time for everyone in the US.

Given that it's 2020 and this year has already sucked beyond recognition I'm not expecting anything less that a total shitshow.

Best of luck America however you vote.

I agree it is Trump versus 'We just can't do another 4 years of this mayhem'
What would the country look like in 2024 if the unimaginable happened?
I just want to find american politics a bit boring again...

I'm sure the Trump campaign will have put a lot of effort into diverting Not Trump votes into independents, and other forms of voter suppression.

So quite a likely outcome is Trump being president with really quite a small minority of the population having voted for him.

www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/03/democrats-haunted-gore-clinton-433901

'As we wait for the results of the 2020 election — with at least a little and, potentially, quite a lot of time to kill — it is worth pondering the randomness of history. A slight turn here or there, a little more of this or a little less of that, and we live in a very different world.

There is no more vivid recent example of the phenomenon than the two tragic figures of Democratic politics over the past generation: Al Gore and Hillary Rodham Clinton.'

www.rawstory.com/2020/11/the-ugliest-closing-message-ive-ever-seen-from-a-politician-cnns-jim-acosta-slams-trumps-threats/

I'm also raising a glass to the splendid GingerIvy.

Another guide.

slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/battleground-state-legal-issues-guide.html

Im keeping a close eye on todays unfoldings at work and told my boss tough im checking...

I hadn't heard about GingerIvy but remember her well

I still cannot believe that there is even a question about who to vote for. How can so many people think that Trump should be any where near the Whitehouse? I just don't understand it.

According to a Newsweek article a respected pollster who called it correctly in 2016, Trump is likely to take Florida and with potentially an even bigger margin than last time. Now I'm depressed.

@ludothedog - but that's what we all thought last time. And look where it got us, treating him as a joke who couldn't possibly amass enough support to win. It may yet happen again. NYPD seems to support him. Mind you, he probably gave them all life long membership to one of his clubs or something.

I am very glad not to be a WH staffer in the next 48 hours. Either there's going to be an uncontrollable outburst or a horrible victory boast.

I personally think Biden will win. That's not just based on the polls, but on Trump's unguarded remarks. He is very worried about losing.

Damn. 4 am. I was hoping to sleep in but one been tossing and turning for the last half hour.

I give up. Time for coffee.

It's gonna be a long day.

US media-consumption seems very siloed, and media sources are overtly partisan.

So different Americans see very different material.

@PerkingFaintly

US media-consumption seems very siloed, and media sources are overtly partisan.

So different Americans see very different material.

I think its Netflix that were running a programme called social network that explained exactly this. It's very worrying as this news difference will continue long after the election.

I don't pray but I'm sending lots of positive energy for not only a blue wave but calm no matter what the outcome.

I read a BBC article about the polls that said they are very different to 2016 - a lot of lessons have been learned. Last time they didn’t poll the “average Joe” (male, white, no college education, over 40) in sufficient numbers so they missed that this demographic were voting Trump in large numbers.

‘It’s not up to him’: how media outlets plan to sidestep any Trump ‘victory’ news
With reports that the president intends to make a premature speech, newsrooms across the US are bracing for misinformation
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/03/donald-trump-us-election-victory-speech-misinformation

One technique would be to display a fixed on-screen banner reminding viewers that the votes are still being counted with no winner yet declared.

“If Trump goes on for more than a minute or two with falsehoods, cut away from the live feed and have your reporters explain that elections are not ‘called’ by their contestants,” she said. “Explain why such a premature declaration of victory is both wrong and dangerous.”

Here www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-53657174

I still can't believe they've erected a non-scaleable fence around the White House.. surely that's never been done before.

Shows how divided the US is at the moment. Today will change all that 🙏

Wearing #PearlsforRuth today and crossing everything that whatever the result America has a peaceful election period.

Thanks, @CaveMum, that's interesting about the difference in people polled between 2016 and now. I am seriously worried because of that pollster mentioned above, in Newsweek, who called it right last time, though.

Asian American Republican group calls on its member to vote... for Biden.

www.asian.gop/pressreleases/follow_your_conscience_save_america?lg=en

This is the link to the Newsweek article I mentioned https://www.newsweek.com/pollster-who-predicted-trumps-2016-florida-win-says-president-will-take-state-again-1544251?amp=1&utmmedium=Social&utmmsource=Twitter&twitterrimpression=true