Who is looking at increased wfh long term?

[jorgeous]

Hello all,

The plan at both mine & DHs company was to go in on a rota basis from September. This is still going to happen but far less frequently than we anticipated eg 4 days a month in the office. Plus it's completely voluntary. Companies are making noises about this becoming the norm, reducing HQ space & competitors are acting similar & some have made the switch.
There are lots of benefits to wfh although I do like the social aspect of the office. However because we are not allowed meetings of more than 2 people, gyms, canteens, coffee stations etc are all closed very few are coming back so there is little social aspect.
If this is the norm we really need to rethink our home environment & have a proper office for both of us.
I feel a little sad tbh, anyone else in the same boat?

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bloombergquint.com/amp/gadfly/eastern-europe-s-workers-finally-get-paid

Where i am is returning up to 30% of the workforce, there will be a rota and we'll be allocated a desk each day.
I can't wait to go back, fed up at home all the time!

Plus Eastern Europe has seen wage growth faster than Western Europe its slightly narrow minded to assume that thousands of Bulgarians or Polish workers will be happy with low wages for a long period.

It's hardly 'narrow minded' to point out that the average wage in Britain is 3 times higher than in Poland and 4 times higher than in Bulgaria.

Surely what's narrow minded is to insist that British workers are irreplacable.

No I said it's narrow minded to assume Eastern Europe workers will be happy with lower wages for a long period, I didn't mention anything about comparing average wages did I? Why do you think minimum wages are growing?

It's narrow minded to think that those countries want to remain "locked into providing cheap labor to mostly foreign-owned enterprises. Much has been said and written since about the limitations of this model."

Did you read that article I linked?

Why do you think Eastern Europe won't follow the China example?

No I said it's narrow minded to assume Eastern Europe workers will be happy with lower wages for a long period, I didn't mention anything about comparing average wages did I? Why do you think minimum wages are growing?

It would be very surprising if wages in Eastern European countries were not growing, given that they started from a very low base. However, even if wage growth there continues at current rates - which cannot be assumed - they will not come close to Western European levels for years if not decades.

It's narrow minded to think that those countries want to remain "locked into providing cheap labor to mostly foreign-owned enterprises. Much has been said and written since about the limitations of this model."

Nobody knows what the future holds, but for the foreseeable future, it is likely that wages will be considerably lower in EE - especially the Balkan states - than in Britain. If we're talking about a company potentially outsourcing hundreds or even thousands of jobs, even a small difference in wages could save them many millions in annual wages.

Did you read that article I linked?

I only glanced at it. When does it predict that wages in Bulgaria will equal those in Britain?

In any case, it's not just EE. It's South Africa, Nigeria, India, the Phillippines. All countries with millions of competent English speakers happy to work for much less than a British worker. Obviously there would be problems involved, and it might not work out, but I wouldn't be as sanguine about the potential ramifications of WFH as some people here seem to be.

We need to be also focusing on the threat from the US. The company I work for is offshoring to the US. Lots of bright graduates with postgrad degrees. Native English speakers. But significantly worse workers’ rights than in Europe. Little, if any, paid holiday, little, if any, maternity provision, longer working hours, no legal requirement for a break, easy to fire. God knows if they get paid sick leave. It’s not just about wages.

Without wishing to disrespect certain jobs, surely it depends on the role? I agree basic customer service isn't country specific but a mortgage advisor needs a CeMAP, and a CIPD is needed for HR. PR is often a matter of what contacts and relationships you bring with you. I used to be a buyer and I needed to speak French which isn't necessarily widely spoken in Bulgaria. Just a few examples.

I don't know how appealing it is if your so-called cheaper labour comes with training costs and a requirement to localise their knowledge.

It's not just about equal wages. Gov are pressing for pay convergence with western Europe so companies that outsource could easily face higher taxes.

When does it predict that wages in Bulgaria will equal those in Britain?

It doesn't predict that & doesn't need too.

Why will it take decades if China saw costs rise in 8 years?

It's South Africa, Nigeria, India, the Phillippines. All countries with millions of competent English speakers happy to work for much less than a British worker.

Which all was possible pre Covid but there are limitations that haven't gone away. I don't believe hundreds of thousands of people in the UK will move to a full wfh model & I don't believe all those job that do will be at risk from offshoring. Some of course & there will likely be a increase but I don't think it's a huge trend.

I needed to speak French which isn't necessarily widely spoken in Bulgaria

It's not like there are tons of Brits fluent in French either though.

I don't know how appealing it is if your so-called cheaper labour comes with training costs and a requirement to localise their knowledge.

Well, according to many here, online training is every bit as efficient as face-to-face training and costs very little, relatively speaking. I don't think that's true myself, but many here are insisting that it is. And yes, outsourcing wouldn't work so well with jobs that require extensive local knowledge, but there are very many that don't, or where that requirement could be easily accommodated.

*It doesn't predict that & doesn't need too.

Why will it take decades if China saw costs rise in 8 years?*

I dunno... myabe because China and EE are completely different places? And it's not like manufacturing jobs have left China for Western countries, have they? Of course it's likely that wages and other costs will continue to rise in EE, but they'll still very likely be considerably lower than in Western Europe for the foreseeable.

Which all was possible pre Covid but there are limitations that haven't gone away. I don't believe hundreds of thousands of people in the UK will move to a full wfh model & I don't believe all those job that do will be at risk from offshoring. Some of course & there will likely be a increase but I don't think it's a huge trend.

I hope you're right. But we'll see.

I think more than 20% of the population can speak/understand French & a large percentage of that will be of working age. I'm fluent in French (French mother). Apparently it's 1% in Bulgaria & concentrated in the older generations. About 25% of Bulgarians speak English which is similar across the EE countries.

I think more than 20% of the population can speak/understand French & a large percentage of that will be of working age

1 in 5 Brits can speak French to a level that would enable them to work in that language?

I don't believe that for a second.

Well according to Wiki 23% can speak/understand it, how many of that number can work in that language I don't know.

But it's not dissimilar to the number of English speakers in EE countries where all these jobs you are talking about are going to go to.

I think I've proven @IcedPurple isn't a gov stooge, or a crap one at least! 😆

About 25% of Bulgarians speak English which is similar across the EE countries

I assumed it was higher than that & how many are going to have a good enough grasp to speak/understand banking, law etc?

@userbght

Well according to Wiki 23% can speak/understand it, how many of that number can work in that language I don't know.

But it's not dissimilar to the number of English speakers in EE countries where all these jobs you are talking about are going to go to.

I think I've proven @IcedPurple isn't a gov stooge, or a crap one at least! 😆

Yes, you and your Wiki have really caught me out

@IcedPurple

I needed to speak French which isn't necessarily widely spoken in Bulgaria

It's not like there are tons of Brits fluent in French either though.

I don't know how appealing it is if your so-called cheaper labour comes with training costs and a requirement to localise their knowledge.

Well, according to many here, online training is every bit as efficient as face-to-face training and costs very little, relatively speaking. I don't think that's true myself, but many here are insisting that it is. And yes, outsourcing wouldn't work so well with jobs that require extensive local knowledge, but there are very many that don't, or where that requirement could be easily accommodated.

French was taught to about half the high school children my age, with the other half doing German, and A-Levels were fairly common. As far as I know Latinate languages aren't part of education in Bulgaria. Same as Slavic languages are not in the UK.

Anyway... I said it depends on the role. I don't think any of your points prove me wrong?

Wow I didn't expect my thread to be so big, took me a long time to catch up!
So actually a lot of posters seem to moving to more WFH permanently which is very interesting. I guess the more that do it, more will follow?

Some good cons (sounds odd) raised particularly amongst those without the space to do it & mentoring new staff, socialisation, etc. I think a lot of posters talking about offshoring to EE countries etc don't really know much about offshoring & EE countries in general. It's not as straightforward as you think & it can be very costly if it goes wrong.

South Africa is incredibly expensive, I would pay less in London. I just employed a tester there, completely inexperienced in our industry. I could have got someone in the UK for half the price. We interviewed around 10 people and ended up with an option of one person, who needs to be trained. That will take around a year. We only hired there because of politics. Many firms have service centres in northern cities, they don't offshore because it is not that simple and it doesn't work. There is also GDPR and other confidentiality issues which need to be considered. Offshoring isn't an easy option.

I think it’s all very industry and sector dependent. A friend of mine worked in a sector (journalism related) where the entire British workforce was made redundant and all jobs went to South Africa - on cost grounds. My friend had to go out to train them all. He knew what was coming, but thought it was better to get the big extra pay for going out there temporarily before he was made redundant, which he was. This was pre-Covid.