There’s now a strong chance schools will NOT go back full time in September

[Redolent]

Schools have been set up to fail by the careless summer relaxation of lockdown.

• No mandatory face masks in shops and indoors. The UK is an international outlier here.
• Reduction of 2m rule to 1m which is basically the normal distance people talk to each other. Factor in alcohol and social distancing is now non-existent in pubs and restaurants. Oh, and nobody cares about the 1m ‘plus’ bit. They just hear 1m.
• Reopening of too many indoor venues at once, including things like places of worship which are high-risk for transmission anyway.
• Bypassing the idea of social bubbles straight to unlimited two household meet-ups indoors. You can visit different pubs/restaurants over the weekend and go inside multiple households throughout the week. Zero attempt to break chain of transmission.
• No functioning app and poor test/trace system (see SAGE’s Stephen Reicher on the latter)
• ‘Pausing’ of shielding in August

All of the above will led to a rise in cases.

Meanwhile:

• Shit is absolutely hitting the fan in the United States, India, Pakistan, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, other parts of the Middle East. Our quarantine policy is so terrible it may well be scrapped anyway. Will see more imported cases.
• The weather will turn cooler and allow perfect conditions for the virus to thrive

So by end of August/early September, our cases and hospitalizations will be rising significantly. Flu season will kick in. The NHS is already groaning under the weight of its huge 10million waiting list - another shut down cannot happen. A full time return to school under those circumstances will be untenable. Blended learning will see a turn as will part-time schooling.

YABU: we need to get the economy going in all its forms as quickly as possible, and schools will also go back with no issues.
YANBU: you cannot have things both ways. This summer relaxation is setting us up for an autumn/winter spike and more part-time schooling.

I’m not sure OP. I think it’s very likely there will be further “spikes” yes, but whether these will be regional or require another national lockdown, it’s hard to tell.

To be honest, I’m in London and as soon as more traffic came back into the roads, nobody was doing 2m social distancing anyway because you can’t walk into the road to pass people. So the 1m rule is just what was happening anyway.

I really hope schools are back full time in September. It's outrageous to leave kids at home any longer.

There was never any guarantee of a full time return to school in September.

I am all for lockdown when necessary (I took my dc out of school before boris closed the schools)

But we can't tread on egg shells forever. Unless we get a vaccine this virus will always be here. And would you have a new vaccine? Would you give your dc a new vaccine? (I'm not anti vax btw, mine are all up to date with theirs)

We have to try and get back to some normality. And if it doesn't work, back to lockdown. The issue we have (the world has) is that we don't know for sure what will happen. We have to at least try imo

I honestly think I'll crack up if schools don't go back in September. I'm so incredibly worried about my dc and see their mental health declining the longer this shit show goes on for.

I think it will be back full time in primary schools (lord knows about secondary).

There will probably be lots of local spikes and closures all over the U.K.

It’s going to be shit.

I'm a bit que sera sera at this point. I don't think people would bother listening to Boris even if he tried to impose another nationwide lockdown in autumn. I also don't think it will be easy to tell who has a cold, covid-19, flu, a chest infection etc etc by then unless you routinely test absolutely everyone.

I totally agree OP I also think this will happen. Children are being ignored. They will see that pubs are more important than education. How can we have pubs open but schools closed (to the majority still)? It's like a bizarre dream.
Never mind all of us (mainly women) that are trying to combine childcare/schooling and work.
It's crazy.

I really don't know. We may see a second spike in the autumn but I think numbers will keep falling during summer. It might be a case of everyone at school in September and by January some localised school closures.

I agree with you in theory. Also in theory is that we can stamp down on local flare ups meaning no second wave but lots of hotspots.

But the management of that is beyond our government.

Schools will go back, there will be flare ups and localised lock downs, the vaccine will be out to front line health carers and the extremely clinically vulnerable by October. It'll all be fine by Christmas.

Loads of my dcs class are in thanks to their parents being keyworkers meanwhile my dc is still banned and getting even more behind because she point blank refuses to do the work. It's disgusting.

There's a chance there will be a second spike at some point. The problem is that no one knows when it could be. Better to come out of lockdown now, when active cases in the community are so low, and allow the economy to recover to some extent, than stay locked down indefinitely. What if the second spike is six months from now?

The rule is not 1 metre. It is still 2 metres but, if that isn't possible, it is "1 metre + mitigation". i.e. measures to mitigate being nearer such as masks, visits, screens etc.

The PM was at pains to re-iterate that. (So often people can't be bothered to listen properly including newsreaders and journalists).

I share your anxiety about schools not opening

And yes, the Tories are putting the Economy above Education

If the scenario you describe in OP comes true, I may weep (have a y10 and a Y12)

The only bit I'm not sure on in your message I'd the colder weather bit setting us up for an explosion in cases. The countries you've named starting to see rapid rises in cases are, in general, warm. Is the stability of covid to UV known??

Yabu, we cant and wont lockdown again I dont think. For almost all people it is an unnecessary over reaction and damages the economy/lives/livelihoods. Cancer and other illnesses also need to be treated, we cant stop again for one illness at the expense of all others.

Active cases are only so low because of the lockdown. I am just hoping the vaccine fills the gap the government have left.

Boris said right at the start they were "aiming" for a second peak during the summer holidays, kids break up in a few weeks, jut in time for the increase in cases.
This is hopefully to stop the second wave being so bad in the winter, to protect the NHS.
All those saying how the nightingale hospitals haven't been used will see them functioning either during summer holidays or autumn/winter.

What I do think is, even by the standards of this govt, Gavin Williamson comes across as spectacularly out of the loop, to the point of dopey. I really don’t know how he got that job.

What they need to be doing is planning now for a contingency plan in the event of another term / year of regional school closures. I understand Scotland have put a national online curriculum system in place that can facilitate “blended learning” if school is interrupted or needs to be part-time for given periods.

They also need to decide how GCSEs and A-levels will be assessed in 2021 because if there is any more disruptions (eg regional school closures), they may have to do teacher assessment again as the disparities between regions and schools will be too pronounced.

They need to stop taking about primary children now and focus on contingency plans for the Year 10s and 12s, rather than “let’s see what happens and then react.”

@Angelonia

There's a chance there will be a second spike at some point. The problem is that no one knows when it could be. Better to come out of lockdown now, when active cases in the community are so low, and allow the economy to recover to some extent, than stay locked down indefinitely. What if the second spike is six months from now?

This is how I feel. If I can get DS back in nursery for 6 months I would far rather do that. He's not seen anyone under 35 since March.

We will just have to learn to live with the risk. We live with many others...illness, accidents etc. This really cannot go on...this is so destructive to the economy and people's mental and physical health. Covid isn't the only bloody illness.

Also, after the DC debacle, few take the govt seriously anyway, as I think the “were all in it together” vibe was lost - not so much by the fact DC went to Durham in that week when literally nobody was going anywhere, but more by the way they gaslighted the public after the story broke. So a second lockdown would no longer have the same effect, I don’t think. People are disillusioned.

I want the schools back. I won't get what I want, but is what I want.
I probably disagree with 80% of what OP wrote.

@RedCatBlueCat

The only bit I'm not sure on in your message I'd the colder weather bit setting us up for an explosion in cases. The countries you've named starting to see rapid rises in cases are, in general, warm. Is the stability of covid to UV known??

It’s the fact that barely any one in these places - Arizona, Texas, Florida, in the US - is spending any time outdoors. It’s boiling hot, so they’re all indoors, in air conditioned environments. Which is optimal for transmission.