There’s now a strong chance schools will NOT go back full time in September

[Redolent]

Schools have been set up to fail by the careless summer relaxation of lockdown.

• No mandatory face masks in shops and indoors. The UK is an international outlier here.
• Reduction of 2m rule to 1m which is basically the normal distance people talk to each other. Factor in alcohol and social distancing is now non-existent in pubs and restaurants. Oh, and nobody cares about the 1m ‘plus’ bit. They just hear 1m.
• Reopening of too many indoor venues at once, including things like places of worship which are high-risk for transmission anyway.
• Bypassing the idea of social bubbles straight to unlimited two household meet-ups indoors. You can visit different pubs/restaurants over the weekend and go inside multiple households throughout the week. Zero attempt to break chain of transmission.
• No functioning app and poor test/trace system (see SAGE’s Stephen Reicher on the latter)
• ‘Pausing’ of shielding in August

All of the above will led to a rise in cases.

Meanwhile:

• Shit is absolutely hitting the fan in the United States, India, Pakistan, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, other parts of the Middle East. Our quarantine policy is so terrible it may well be scrapped anyway. Will see more imported cases.
• The weather will turn cooler and allow perfect conditions for the virus to thrive

So by end of August/early September, our cases and hospitalizations will be rising significantly. Flu season will kick in. The NHS is already groaning under the weight of its huge 10million waiting list - another shut down cannot happen. A full time return to school under those circumstances will be untenable. Blended learning will see a turn as will part-time schooling.

YABU: we need to get the economy going in all its forms as quickly as possible, and schools will also go back with no issues.
YANBU: you cannot have things both ways. This summer relaxation is setting us up for an autumn/winter spike and more part-time schooling.

@MrsSchrute

I'd imagine that all children will go back to school full time in (in primary school anyway) bubbles of 30. But anytime one of those children gets a cough or temperature, which with children is very frequent, that whole bubble will have to isolate until the infected child gets a test. And repeat with each new child who gets a cough. So I'm preparing for a very disrupted couple of terms, with no assemblies, staggered drop offs and pick ups etc.

Protocol is child with symptoms goes home, rest of bubble carry on as per usual until their test results come back. If test is positive then whole bubble plus staff in that bubble have to self-isolate for 14 days.

It's not a case of everyone home and self-isolating until a result comes back. (Should be.)

I’m pretty sure Wales (where I am) have basically said blended learning in September.

OP - do you not understand where the money comes from to pay for schools, social care and hospitals. We have to build the economy back up.
If we need to shut down locally again we can do.
They'll be back full time in September.

Just tell the parents how much it costs. deedeemegadoodoo. I'd have my hand in my pocket quicker than Lori Loughlin.

I think you're right. From looking at what's happened elsewhere and looking at the complete disaster here.
If we had compulsory face masks; if we had accurate and adequate track and trace; if we had adjusted from 2m to 1.5m - we'd be close to what Germany did - and they are currently having little spikes. But we're not doing any of that, so it would be a miracle if we didn't spike again. And I don't believe in miracles or Saint Boris.
But although statistically less than 1% of parents are calling for schools to go back, an awful lot of them seem to appear on MN school threads.

Even if they didn't tell us, I expect the government are working to a schedule scribbled on the back of an envelope worked out in March, to which Boris said "this is our plan, come what may". They probably had the date of 4th July in mind for many things reopening from the very start. And I wouldn't be at all surprised if this schedule reads:

31st August: scrap social distancing. Important: do not tell public before this date.
1st Sepetember: schools fully back.

But no everyone shouted that their children would die and they needed to keep them home to keep them safe. I'm sure Boris himself will be saying that. "I tried to let the schools back in June, but..."

I hope they will be back fully. What were Johnson’s exact words? Can’t remember if they had the usual get out clause.

I’d rather full classes and DfE to revert on their stance on PPE, visors first.

United States numbers are dropping despite various states still being in their ‘first wave’. Mexico, India, Pakistan are also experienc8ng their first waves. If you want to use a country to panic over then Iran would be a better one to choose.

I think it is very unlikely that primary schools at least will not go back full time or as near to full time as possible come September.

If you want to use a country to panic over then Iran would be a better one to choose.

Israel also had a load of problems in schools (a few weeks back, I haven't checked recently). Their demographic of illness changed too - fewer older people, more younger people.

My school is planning full time, everyone back like normal.

When the great GW talks about schools, he only ever gets as far as talking about “bubbles” of whatever size. This may work in primary schools, but surely he must realise “bubbles” are totally irrelevant to secondary schools as they all do different GCSE options or are in different sets. So, if they’re talking about schools going back “as normal” in Sept, they must envisage there will be no social distancing in place at all by then and no need to clean classrooms between groups. It’s the only way it’s possible. But has this actually dawned on anyone in the D of E that this is something to consider? Or are they just going to announce, in late August, that secondaries going back as normal won’t be possible after all (as happened just before primaries were meant to return in full)?

I don’t agree with places of worship opening. When does that happen?. That doesn’t help the economy or education or health. So it’s an unnecessary luxury when places like salons and gyms still can’t open.

I’m doubtful it will be full time in September. It’s more than likely part time and gradually moving to full time nearer Christmas depending on the cases.

I am very anxious about dcs going back to school due to my health.

I think the main thing they need to do when it goes up again, and it will, is test people in care homes, get out anyone with it ASAP and keep doing that - our death figures are mostly awful because not enough has been done to stop its spread in care homes, it seems to me.

Hopefully by September we will have seen some more evidence from schools in other countries and I'm just really hoping it shows that kids are low-transmission. If it doesn't I'm not sure what we do - in any event I've not been expecting full-time return for all in September for a while now.

@Cookiecrisps

Someone on another thread answered that with ‘Schools cost money and pubs make money.’ I think that says it all.

It really doesn't say anything at all execpt that someone doesn't understand much.

Keeping the rest of the economy closed because there isn't yet a workable solution for all pupils would be stupidity in the extreme, do you honestly think the country should stagnate until schools are back?

There's no ideal scenario but not allowing businesses to open wouldd be madness

I agree with you wholeheartedly. It's the perfect storm sadly. Some schools may not be back at all. I'm thinking schools with plus 1000 pupils, high number of bame kids and staff. I think the government should keep attendance optional until this nightmare is over for good. Either because a vaccine or lifesaving antivirals have ended it or it has burnt itself out.

I want the schools back. I won't get what I want, but is what I want.
I probably disagree with 80% of what OP wrote.

This pretty much where I am. I just think it won't happen. The only way it can is for all measures to be scrapped and I can't see that happening.

We’re in Wales, where things are being done more cautiously but I worry that as soon as the 5 mile rule is scrapped and people travel further and in from other areas then the rates will increase.

I spoke to a head of dept at my dc’s school yesterday. They are not anticipating a return to Pre covid schooling at all during 2020.

would you have a new vaccine? Would you give your dc a new vaccine?

I would. Given the risks of this virus. And I wouldn't have some vaccines out there at the moment.

I think you are right. Everyone cites Eurpose as "getting back to normal" but when you research the schools situation there most countries (with less community transmission than us) aren't back full time especially not Senior Schools. In addition their plans for September often revolve around compromised schooling. It certainly isn't business as usual and they are in a better position than UK. PHE England report shows outbreaks in 12 schools in UK. This won't be a normal return in September by an means. I am amazed by those who think the virus has "changed/gone away". The reduction in cases is in the main due to lockdown/being outside etc. All these factors will change in the Autumn unfortunately.

31st August: scrap social distancing. Important: do not tell public before this date
1st Sepetember: schools fully back

Our school (state, England) goes back on the 25th August so we’ll need guidance before that!

There has never been any clarity on secondaries : and I am beginning to get a creeping realisation there won't ever be.

The DfE have caused a shitstorm tonight by gaslighting the entire primary school teaching workforce in some newly amended guidelines.

The DfE have caused a shitstorm tonight by gaslighting the entire primary school teaching workforce in some newly amended guidelines.

Piggy how come, what did it say?

But although statistically less than 1% of parents are calling for schools to go back

Blimey that is low, from a YouGov poll?