There’s now a strong chance schools will NOT go back full time in September

[Redolent]

Schools have been set up to fail by the careless summer relaxation of lockdown.

• No mandatory face masks in shops and indoors. The UK is an international outlier here.
• Reduction of 2m rule to 1m which is basically the normal distance people talk to each other. Factor in alcohol and social distancing is now non-existent in pubs and restaurants. Oh, and nobody cares about the 1m ‘plus’ bit. They just hear 1m.
• Reopening of too many indoor venues at once, including things like places of worship which are high-risk for transmission anyway.
• Bypassing the idea of social bubbles straight to unlimited two household meet-ups indoors. You can visit different pubs/restaurants over the weekend and go inside multiple households throughout the week. Zero attempt to break chain of transmission.
• No functioning app and poor test/trace system (see SAGE’s Stephen Reicher on the latter)
• ‘Pausing’ of shielding in August

All of the above will led to a rise in cases.

Meanwhile:

• Shit is absolutely hitting the fan in the United States, India, Pakistan, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, other parts of the Middle East. Our quarantine policy is so terrible it may well be scrapped anyway. Will see more imported cases.
• The weather will turn cooler and allow perfect conditions for the virus to thrive

So by end of August/early September, our cases and hospitalizations will be rising significantly. Flu season will kick in. The NHS is already groaning under the weight of its huge 10million waiting list - another shut down cannot happen. A full time return to school under those circumstances will be untenable. Blended learning will see a turn as will part-time schooling.

YABU: we need to get the economy going in all its forms as quickly as possible, and schools will also go back with no issues.
YANBU: you cannot have things both ways. This summer relaxation is setting us up for an autumn/winter spike and more part-time schooling.

@Itwasnoaccident9786756453

would you have a new vaccine? Would you give your dc a new vaccine?

I would. Given the risks of this virus. And I wouldn't have some vaccines out there at the moment.

I would absolutely have the vaccine and give it to my DC too.

I’m hoping school staff will be able to access any vaccine after NHS/care workers and the currently shielding group/very elderly.

For me the relaxation is inevitable. Maintaining full lockdown, or even partial lockdown, throughout the summer, would have led to full economic and social collapse. I just don't think it could be maintained any longer.

The more material point is that the government has had months to think of alternative approaches to providing education to the kids who have been disadvantaged, particularly those for whom home-schooling is impossible. I'm a lone parent and working more than full time at the moment -- its just not possible for me to provide more than the most rudimentary home schooling and I'm furious that the government has not made any attempt to engage with the huge gulf that is developing between sections of our children.

I don't blame them for wanting shops/pubs/cinemas to reopen, given the impact the closures are having on the economy. I do blame them for putting education right at the bottom of the priority list as if it were a complete afterthought.

Yes, schools are a thorny issue, and the teaching unions have not helped matters, but we're not into month four of this, with masses of examples of how governments in different countries have tackled this and still the question appears to have barely crossed their minds.

Schools need to go back.

Lives vs. livelihoods was never on the cards, govt. are trying (as they might for those who hate them either way) to balance ppl getting a life back on track: getting back out and about, opening their businesses, tending to their mental health needs - I don't understand all this mask shaming and negativity - hospital admissions are now lowest since before lockdown at 300. There is evidence coming out of Germany that localised cases push up the R0 but are "easier" to contain - also, that the virus has become weakened.
Some ppl are never happy and I guess we can't please all of the ppl all of the time - Boris has handed trust over to us, the ppl - we need to take responsibility for ourselves now, and that also means getting work places open - you surely didn't expect the country to remain closed all summer did you? not when the science is telling us that the rate is below 1 and that outside (summer months) is a great place to be. Most of Europe is open for business - Italy has opened up tourist spots, as has Spain and Germany. Imagine living alone OP or being a single parent to a bunch of kids, having to stay in or local for the whole summer hols. I don't watch any news so I don't know if this catastrophising is coming from there or what, but find some scientific articles or follow some scientists/drs on twitter instead - we're well over the worst and VE day and beach visits weeks ago showed no rise in cases (even though we're testing more) - find out what your local town/village figures are too, this helped me a lot.

I don't think many would disagree with that, it is HOW they go back that is the issue.

In my opinion, there will never be a second national lockdown again partly because the Union's have made the return to school so difficult.

There is not a government in the land who would want to repeat this conflict..and so they won't...

(At most there may be regional lockdowns but this is not going to happen again).

I can not understand at all the rationale of keeping my children at home in my area where there is a 0.2% chance of catching it. It is outrageous on balance and absolutely not proportional nor reasonable.

Scotland was told yesterday that schools were going back full time in August as there's been no new deaths in 6 or 7 days

We all have to learn to live with this virus.

Children are at minimum risk. There is 0 reason why they can’t go back to schools other than because the unions are constantly wining.

The truth is that we cannot afford to go into lockdown again. ITs all very well criticising the government for considering the economy, but exactly what do people think will happen if they don’t.

COVID is here to stay. Even when there is a vaccine people will still catch COVID, and people will still die from COVID.

We can’t spend so long being afraid of dying that we forget to live.

Most don’t want to catch COVID and most either won’t or won’t suffer any ill after effects.

And the truth, however unpalatable, is that we’re all going to die of something.

The exam boards are already putting stuff in place provisionally for next year. I attended an online exam board meeting.

The government have renewed the contract with Oak Academy next year.....

More cases in schools than health workers here. And the school aren’t back properly.

Where did the photo go?!

@TerrapinStation that isn’t what I meant at all. I believe the schools have been lower on the government’s agenda than pubs and businesses because the schools cost the government money to fund and the pubs make money to get the economy going again.

If the government prioritised education the vulnerable students who were promised laptops in April would have received them by now. We also wouldn’t be struggling through this pandemic with issues caused by years of underfunding in the education system such as really poor IT systems (impacting on remote teaching) and overcrowded classrooms with poor ventilation.

I have always said they’d all return in September and still stand by that. I’m sure there will be further spikes but I’ve actually been expecting one for a while now because social distancing and even the whole lockdown thing hasn’t really happened where I live for some time now (also don’t think it’s exclusive to my town, I have witnessed people on social media ignoring the rules for a while too). I expected a huge spike following VE Day for example after the photos of parties I saw, also when he relaxed the rules re travelling for exercise when I saw the photos of masses on the beach. It hasn’t happened, the infection rate has stayed pretty steady for weeks now.

Maybe it’ll be like swine flu was and it will just disappear as though it never happened.

But teachers and staff are at risk. Which is why the unions are ‘whining’

Isn’t it curious how people keep talking about a continuing reduction in cases or alternatively a second wave as though these things happen completely independently, unrelated to lockdown or other mitigating measures?

My year 10 has 3 hours face face before the end of term. That’s 3 hrs over 15 days. It is a disgrace now. He has done lap top lessons for 12? Weeks and he gets 3 hrs. I fear for him, his exams and his mental health. Meanwhile the private school I managing to get all the year 10s in every day.

formerbabe

Loads of my dcs class are in thanks to their parents being keyworkers meanwhile my dc is still banned and getting even more behind because she point blank refuses to do the work. It's disgusting.

Very illuminating post.

@underneaththeash

OP - do you not understand where the money comes from to pay for schools, social care and hospitals. We have to build the economy back up. If we need to shut down locally again we can do. They'll be back full time in September.

My personal preference is that the economy is reopened but with very strong mitigation measures (as outlined in OP). That way we continue to suppress the virus over the summer and be in a strong position to reopen schools come September.

@AlternativePerspective

We all have to learn to live with this virus.

Children are at minimum risk. There is 0 reason why they can’t go back to schools other than because the unions are constantly wining.

The truth is that we cannot afford to go into lockdown again. ITs all very well criticising the government for considering the economy, but exactly what do people think will happen if they don’t.

COVID is here to stay. Even when there is a vaccine people will still catch COVID, and people will still die from COVID.

We can’t spend so long being afraid of dying that we forget to live.

Most don’t want to catch COVID and most either won’t or won’t suffer any ill after effects.

And the truth, however unpalatable, is that we’re all going to die of something.

This is missing the major point that each day/week that passes scientists learn more about this virus and trust me they are just scratching the surface at present. Giving science time to catch up on what they know/understand will save lives and it is ignorant to think they know anything yet about the long term consequences even for mildly affected. Why do people believe what they want to think rather than the factual situation?

Why are teachers at any more risk than any other worker? the supermarket workers for example? They are not!!!! Everyone has some risk. We have to live with that.

@AlternativePerspective the government is pushing the blame on to unions for schools not reopening fully. It is the government’s own shambolic guidance which prevents more children coming back to school this side of summer. What Williamson should have done is work with the education sector and allowed rotas. I work in a school. If we had a rota this half term all year groups in my school could have come back to school part time following the government’s requirements for bubbles and distancing whilst accommodating key worker children full time. Point the blame where it lies - squarely with the government.

I will lose the plot if they don't go back in September. My daughter is going in to Y10 and they need the routine back, their friends and their mental health.
I think there will be massive outcry if they don't go back. Most parents aren't teachers so can't teach and the schools can only do so much when the children aren't there.
Boris said schools were going back in September and I'm not sure relaxing other rules first will make a difference.
After all we need the economy up and running and the rules have to be relaxed sometime.

WHO have praised the UK's easing of lockdown, from the BBC News

Dr Mike Ryan, the head of emergencies at the World Health Organization (WHO), has praised the UK for the way it is easing restrictions.

He said there had been a "steady, slow and step-wise exit from lockdown conditions" in the country.

Dr Ryan said the government had communicated the changes to the population at large and to the WHO – with a consistent dialogue between the four nations of the UK over regional differences.

He said testing in the UK had now increased and the "surveillance system is capable of understand where the disease is".

His comments came after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the next level of lockdown easing would take place on 4 July, when businesses such as pubs and restaurants can reopen under government guidelines.

We simply have to open schools come September. We cannot allow our children to remain uneducated which is the situation currently for most state schools. At best they are treading water. It is so outrageous it beggars belief.

Also as I understand it, the plan is for closing the last things to open and / or local measures rather than closing schools (as measures to control the virus) unless you have seen other plans OP

@TheEmojiFormerlyKnownAsPrince what are the figures for transmission during lockdown with teachers and key workers' kids?