to feel relieved because London could be virus free by the end of the month ??

[Italianmoma1983]

It should make us hopeful !! Lockdown will definitely be eased and life could go back a bit to normal !

If you’ve honestly read that University of Manchester report and can’t see it’s only fit for the bin then wasting my breath in trying to have an intelligent conversation

I think breath is wasted any time you try to have an intelligent conversation, tbh

If I’m not mistaken journalists, Laura K to be precise, asked for the information to be published. It’s not a government initiative. This in not a stealth propaganda push.

The value in what has happened in London is how it informs what lockdown measures are needed to get the virus under control, if you don’t have track and trace. There are places in the world where that may never be an option.

London’s measures were less rigorous than those in Paris. To more or less the same effect over the same period of time. If the data and analysis is correct then decision makers can feel more confident about less strict forms of lockdown if needed.

Western European countries will probably be able to emulate most of the Asian pandemic control measures. I don’t know if people here will offer up as much control on personal information as they do there. But it’s doable before a second wave hits.

However there are many places were the only tools the government will have are early lockdown and, up to now, hard lockdown. In those countries hard lockdowns don’t come with furlough.

There have been two recent research statements that have hit the headlines:

1. Manchester - 25% of population may have had CV
2. Cambridge +PHE- 24 cases a day in London

@countrygirl99 is right. Scientific papers ask a specific question and are too often reported as answering a subtly different question. Journalists also love to extrapolate: ‘so if the rate is low, does that then mean it will soon be zero?’ is the type of question they ask themselves and the go gung-ho into writing an article discussing a scenario they’ve effectively made up. And as has been pointed out, peer review is a problem right now because of speed required, and reviewer overload. Also, PHE is apparently riven with factions, each jostling for supremacy. Doesn’t mean what they put out is wrong but I know from a friend that it’s hard going there right now and there’s had to be some back-pedalling.

London isn't an island nor does it have it's own borders so sadly I don't see how this can be true. What does make me happy is that us londoners are so often sneered at for our way of life and at the start of his pandemic it was worse than ever, and yet we've done extremely well at bringing cases down. I hope we see the same everywhere else soon, unfortunately with the looser measures we might not.

Quartz you got there way before I could type it out!

One place cannot be virus free if it lets people in from other places.

London is an absoute magnet for people from all over the world as well as all over the UK.

Don't bother op. The vocal majority on here want the virus to stay. They don't want hope. If you have been here a while you will see that this is common, but the same people said Hilary would be elected. Referendum would be remain and labour would win the election.
On this point, I am going to list all the upcoming footy matches, if the dementors could tell me who will win please, I can then bet on the opposite and quids in.

This thread proves to me that the majority of Mumsnetters want this virus here forever. They can’t even accept that maybe things are getting better

People want (and need) reality. Hope is a nebulous thing.

You're not unreasonable, it's a nice thought but I don't believe it. I'm no pessimist but think it will take a lot longer than less than a month for the virus to 'disappear' from London. Things may gradually be eased and that is hopeful.

Also...turning this into ‘people want the virus here forever’ - many years on MN and this is a suspiciously obtuse way of framing it. Almost like there’s a script or something.

Spain and France are reporting around 4% of their population have had it using random antibody testing, I very much doubt that we are going to have had so many more infections

No @Devlesko I've never said that. Perhaps you should take some time out to learn to read.

Yeah it's a script. Well done for rumbling me. I am a paid government bot .

Or maybe I realise that there are a lot of people here who suffer with bad health anxiety and a little tiny bit of positivity might help but no let's just squash it away.

I don’t understand how the virus can be so virulent that merely thinking about touching a gate in a village you don’t live in will wipe out said village in a fortnight, but simultaneously cannot possibly have spread to enough people in a crowded city that it could be waning.

Can nobody say anything positive without being shouted down by an angry mob?

In a word, no - worse still, the reactions get more poisonous by the day

Shame, really; if it wasn't for that the competitive doom and gloom might be almost entertaining

“ Also, PHE is apparently riven with factions, each jostling for supremacy. Doesn’t mean what they put out is wrong but I know from a friend that it’s hard going there right now and there’s had to be some back-pedalling”

Back pedalling on scaremongering by any chance?

i am afraid i totally disagree and think this article is highly dangerous and misleading.

The virus levels are currently low and so many have been staying home, with people emerging and moving around once more the daily number of infections will rise.

Think of a monster hanging around a street, it grabs everyone it sees ... so everyone runs home and locks the doors, the monster is still there...waiting in the shadows.... the minute people start coming back outside it pounces again.

Sadly unless this virus mutates into something less dangerous (which historically other viruses have done over time) we are going to be in a peaks and troughs situation i think.

Everyone has a responsibility to themselves and each other to limit their movements as much as possible, stay home if unwell or household members unwell and keep their hands washed often. If you have to travel with others use a face covering but again stay home if sick (also a single layer of fabric of any kind will do nothing to prevent you spreading or catching the virus).

Society really needs to find a way to move forwards but normality could be years away.

Stay strong and remember the vast majority recover from this illness with mild to moderate symptoms x

Not sure how the fuck anyone’s health anxiety is going the be helped by any of this speculation. There is no testing and tracing infrastructure to deal with the inevitable rise in cases and no decent management in place to see that it gets developed in a coherent and efficient way. Be anxious about that, not what some invisible Mumsnet poster twats on about.

I find it funny how the moment there's a slight chance now London might be getting free of cv there's now enthusiasm for lifting lockdown at different rates at different parts of the country....whereas back when London was the epicentre and people in remote areas with no or minimal cases were asking why they couldn't sit for a few minutes in their quiet local parks or go for two walks a day through empty fields it was all "no we have to all be in this together it can't be one rule for some" 😂

Well we've been told our London offices won't be open for 6-12 months.

Lilac tree that’s not what I’ve heard to date.

It isn’t an article it’s research from the Mrs biostatistics unit out of Cambridge Uni alongside the PHE. I linked it earlier. It feeds into a sub unit of SAGE and I think is the data that gives the Gvt the R figure

As always I suggest going to the research source and looking there rather than the hyperbolic reactions of the media

The science however is behind it

Not sure how the fuck anyone’s health anxiety is going the be helped by any of this speculation. There is no testing and tracing infrastructure to deal with the inevitable rise in cases and no decent management in place to see that it gets developed in a coherent and efficient way. Be anxious about that, not what some invisible Mumsnet poster twats on about

Ah yes but comments like yours are ever so helpful.