To be very concerned that Boris Johnson said this

[Worriedmum54321]

From the Guardian:
Responding to the argument that a more stringent lockdown should have been imposed sooner, he said: “Don’t forget, it’s a very very demanding thing to ask a population to do – very tough – and so I think it was completely right to make our period of lockdown coincide as far as possible with the peak of the epidemic.”

@Worriedmum54321, thank you for your latest informative post.

I read the Imperial report and learnt that it showed the mitigation strategies the govt were initially considering showed deaths could possibly still end up being around 220,000 at worse depending on R number and I am sure other factors. I appreciate no model is going to get it perfect and perhaps can even get it v wrong but hopefully not too often.

I mean, at the start of this he stood on telly and basically shrugged and said we were all gonna get it and a lot of vulnerable people are gonna die.
I mean, I never had any respect for him anyway, but I dont know how even diehard tories forgave him for that.

I would not forgive if they were not following science, but I would certainly forgive anyone making decisions based on imperfect science which later turned out to be wrong

Again, what science have they followed? they ain't telling are they?
It isn't what the WHO have recommended nor what Korea of Germany have done.
I notice today that one of the scientists, when explaining the international comparisons graph, said we wont get a true picture of the real comparisons for many months.... then added "if ever!!"

So we may never know! or will they use that as their get out?

On the plus side, i'm pleased they reached their test target, even allowing for a some creative accounting, its going in the right direction.
Hopefully they will get track and trace up and running.

I read the Imperial report and learnt that it showed the mitigation strategies the govt were initially considering showed deaths could possibly still end up being around 220,000 at worse depending on R number and I am sure other factors.

That is exactly what changed the government strategy. Previously they thought that the mitigation strategy (shielding the vulnerable, etc) will give them the optimal outcome. Let us imagine the world with the following choices:

• Do nothing - 500k people die
• Suppress: option 1 with 50% probability - 500k people die, option 2 with 50% probability - 7 to 39k people die
• Mitigate - X people die

The question has always been around X in the "mitigate" option. If X is comparable with the situation in a bad flu year (e.g. 40k), any rational decision maker would choose "mitigate". The risk of going for suppression and failing is too high.

Imperial report (which incorporated Italian numbers rather than less reliable Chinese data) has claimed that the mitigation strategy will result in 250k death. Clearly, this has completely changed the landscape and the government had to scrap and redesign their plans. We have embarked on a suppression mission. As I mentioned, it is a risky strategy and we will only know next year if it has worked.

@Worriedmum54321, someone has tweeted that this letter by them will be appearing in tomorrow’s Guardian which shares your observation and deep concern at Boris’s grasp of the issues.

On the plus side, i'm pleased they reached their test target, even allowing for a some creative accounting, its going in the right direction.

Sort of. But on the other hand the creative accounting it yet more unecessary politics playing during a time of crisis. And shows why you can’t take anything this government says at face value.

On the plus side if they keep the creative accounting going in order to maintain the 100,000 a day we might all have our own testing kit soon.

Based on hospital numbers, we are very clearly past the peak. Worth noting that London peaked/plateaued on April 4th (which means that R0 in London has fallen below 1 prior to the formal lockdown). The rest of the country peaked on April 8th.

@wintertravel1980, may I ask when the peak is referred to can it refer to either the peak in number of confirmed cases or the peak in number of deaths?

Regarding the peak in the number of deaths am I right that we are now coming down from the peak in deaths but it hasn’t dropped that significantly so far? I am reading yours and others comments with interest. Thank you.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay I was trying to nice to them....... lol!

They actually tested 70k people, the rest where re tests or test kits sent out.

TBH i'd rather the emphasis was on who they tested and the follow up contacts, korea tests 56 people for every positive, the UK is 5 people.

When exactly has Johnson ever had a "grasp of the issues"? he isn't even capable of grasping the issue of contraception.

I mean, at the start of this he stood on telly and basically shrugged and said we were all gonna get it and a lot of vulnerable people are gonna die.

I bet he was shocked when he needed to go to hospital. He wasn't expecting it to be his chin we would take it on, was he?

Good find @Guylan!

Based on the lack of social distancing going on I saw today the testing will only be as good as the day it was done. Two close contact football matches going on in the park, no social distancing at all in the supermarket, staff wearing masks but pulling them down to talk to people, proper rush hour traffic, people jogging and exercising in the park in groups, standing room only on buses.

The cynic in me is questioning about the tests.
They have sent out a lot of tests. These have been counted in today's tests. When the tests get returned to the lab and analysed, will those tests then be counted again as tests performed? Or am I just being cynical.

I would have thought the best way to say how many tests have been done is to work out how many tests were actually done in the lab.

Yes - some people may have more than 1 test. But it's not going to be difficult to say 3 things.

1. How many lab tests were carried out
2. How many people were tested
3. Of those people tested, how many of those were the results positive?

Piers Morgan is absolutely spot on....

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8275365/PIERS-MORGAN-Boris-boast-wants-death-toll-tells-real-story.html?fbclid=IwAR3kbJ8srmAZqFZLQ9QUSrhjlCtNn_XWG0GuUIcCGkf5dz0CgOc6oQ4ZJbQ

@Guylan at the moment our only reliable indicator of a peak is hospital deaths because it’s the only consistent measurement that’s going on. The criteria for testing has had the goal posts moved, I think, three times now so with the increase in testing the case number will go up.

Hospital deaths aren’t completely reliable either depending on where you’re looking since they aren’t reporting deaths that day. There can be a considerable delay between death and including it in the covid figures.

The NHS releases it’s own figures which backdates the deaths reported that day which give a much clearer indication to translate to a national level.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

I committed the cardinal sin of not RTFT and only skim read so apologies if I’ve missed your point.

Thanks @Guylan, that's interesting!

If you want to know why he didn't go back and look at the Mumsnet prepper threads from the time that Covid was roaring through China. Remember the 'It's just flu.' & 'The media make more of it' threads. If he had proposed a lock down at that point a square mile of Mumsnet would have had a cynic fit. He had to wait for it to get REAL for people for the same reason that it took two MONTHS for it to become real for the people on here who were mocking preppers who were watching China and preparing for it crossing continents.

@jasjas1973 that is quite funny from the mail - thanks for the link!

may I ask when the peak is referred to can it refer to either the peak in number of confirmed cases or the peak in number of deaths?

I think most people now refer to the peak in number of deaths. The number of confirmed cases has so far been meaningless since we did so little testing.

I generally follow daily numbers of England hospital deaths that get reported on NHS website:

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

It is only England but it is generally a good proxy for the UK wide trends.

The "total announced" death file shows distribution of deaths based on the date of occurrence. The trend is quite interesting. The numbers fell drastically from 863 on April 8th (the peak) to 361 on April 25th. The figures for the past few days will probably change since there is often a time lag in death announcements (e.g. due to post mortems).

I feel the question is what number of deaths SAGE and the government will deem acceptable for starting to life the lockdown restrictions. The number of hospital deaths starting with 3 (e.g. 361) still looks high optically. I am guessing there must be a scientific approach to quantify the "acceptable level".

I think the answers to all of those questions are available, chomalungma. It’s just not necessarily easily available and you have to do a bit of digging on government sites.

I agree with jas though that who is probably more important. How far off everybody that needs a test getting tested? Are we still just limiting tests to those hospitalised, those in care homes and key workers. If so how long until the testing system is extended beyond that?

Thank you @wintertravel1980 and @Cornettoninja for your helpful replies.

The numbers fell drastically from 863 on April 8th (the peak) to 361 on April 25th On the updated chart including out of hospital deaths the 23rd of April was the highest, higher than the 863 on the 8th of April. The 9th and 10th of April was higher than the 8th too, the real number im the 8th was over 1100 including out of hospital deaths.

Apologies for the Sun link.

Where is the proof we went into lockdown earlier than other countries? This does not appear to be true. And to those saying the deaths in spain and italy are higher, the uk is higher than Spain and about to catch Italy. Also it was the government who were continually comparing the uk favourably to Europe - when they could, and then strangely when they couldnt started to say you cant compare! Strange that.

No, we did not go into lockdown earlier than other countries. And there's lockdown and there's lockdown. Ours is a mild form compared to say Spain & Italy.

We are close to both countries for deaths per million.