Do you think Cornwall will be 'open' in July?

[NoSoapAndGory]

Hi all.

A purely speculative post to gauge opinions, as I know we don't know, don't have a crystal ball, etc etc.

We have booked a self catering holiday cottage near Bude for the first 10 days of July. We live in the South East, so it's about 5 hours drive to get there on a good day. We have a dog so would need to stop at a service station at least once.

As part of general future-focused conversation, DH and I are ruminating about

1: will we be 'allowed' to go
2: if we are, would we want to anyway?
3: if it's 'allowed', will the Bude community welcome us or hate us?
4: will the tourist industry want revenue or not?

Etc. Etc. Etc.

Anyone else having similar discussions, and if so, what are you thinking?

www.aspects-holidays.co.uk/st-ives-webcam

For you @Daffodil101

Exeter Nightingale is being downsized because we haven’t had the transmission we were expecting down here.

I guess that might say something about how open the SW is going to be. Especially with Raab talking about getting used to restrictions being the new normal for the next few months and whoever it was talking about not counting even on U.K. holidays for the moment.

This virus is likely to be around a long time.

A safe vaccine may never be found.

What would those of you in tourist areas recommend then? No more tourism ever again. Loss of businesses on an enormous scale.

Beautiful, even in the dark...

Thankfully, this won’t be a point for conjecture. As somebody upthread pointed out, if the government say it’s safe, we will go. If not, we will stay home.

It’s not going to be down to any of us to tell others what is/isn’t safe. Which is lucky really because we need to make decisions based on science and fact rather than mass hysteria.

However I'm sure there will be plenty of visitors to Cornwall who ARE sick & won't tell anyone, even if they do know.
Best hope the cleaners do their job well, when you get to your cottage or caravan.
I know many cleaners & property owners are dependent on this income so they will need to keep working even if it endangers their own health.

I'm fairly certain that Treliske will have increased their ICU capacity significantly, @Daffodil101. and actually I don't know if the 15 beds is accurate.
but remember, it's only quite a small hospital in the first place. If you've only got 10 beds normally, then if you quadruple it you'll only have 40.
plus, remember it's not just the physical beds, or ventilators - it's the specialist staff that are needed - all significantly limiting factors.

Daffodil, my cousin lives near Norway Stores. She is recovering from cancer treatment. She has nowhere else to go to self-isolate and insufficient support locally to avoid going out at all - dog to walk, food to buy etc. She is utterly terrified about lockdown ending before there is a vaccine and the fact your husband works in ICU will not bring her any comfort.

My trust has 12 icu beds and 6 hdu.

They have made it 30 icu beds and staff have been redeployed from elsewhere within the hospital and community.

Guessing Treslike will have done similar.

Reading this thread and thinking about it more, I am realising that it won't happen. Tourist travel in the UK cannot work, and it isn't primarily due to the effect on locals or resources though that will be a major factor considered. It is just that social distancing will be impossible and the rise in infection rate will not be workable within govt plans and projections. Even if people go to self catering and no do go out, they are effectively house swapping at a time when surfaces could be covered with germs, and cleaners will put at risk without access to PPE.

What they do about refunds is going to be key.

Yes I understand. As I said, DH is an ITU consultant.

Ihaventgottime - so what’s your overall opinion?

It sound like a mixture between ‘hoping’ my accommodation is clean, telling me it’s best not to go, and worrying about people who will be reliant on the tourism industry for money.

Overall, what’s your advice to me, to cleaners, to restaurant owners, others dependent on tourism?

Our cottage owner is going for 100% refund if there’s another lockdown.

I don't know what people should do if they get sick whilst away from home, that's exactly my point.
There's no good option.
Which is why it is better to stay at home.
But that means our tourism & hospitality sector will really suffer.
So, rock & hard place. It's shit.

What would those of you in tourist areas recommend then? No more tourism ever again. Loss of businesses on an enormous scale.

It won't be up to people who live in tourist areas to decide.

However, with no vaccine or cure, there are pretty much two ways of dealing with the virus, and neither of them will help tourism this summer.

Option 1, assumes that there will be a vaccine or treatment in 18 months to 2 years, and the aim of the government will be to monitor and control the re-infection rate so that the health service is not overwhelmed. It is likely that there will be some lifting of restrictions by July, but it is unlikely that that large numbers of people will be able to travel all over the country.

Option 2 is no restrictions, open everything, let the health service become overwhelmed, but hope that immunity is established quickly. Whether or not that is a good idea, it is ridiculous to assume that the Cornish tourism industry would be booming while this happens.

I’m sorry to hear about your cousin.

I have friends in similar positions. Not living near Norway Stores, though I’m sure they wish they did, it’s a beautiful spot, but having to isolate literally in the attic while the family are downstairs.

@Genevieva really surprised your cousin cannot get any local support with shopping or other stuff, it is one of those places that seems to have a really good community spirit. Going by the webcam which I am addicted to it is quiet at all times at the moment so she should be safe taking a pootle up the street to the beach or the harbour beach early doors

Lots of people are pinning hopes on an effective vaccine...that may never exist

Daffodil, I too have booked for August and planned to follow government guidance at that time. Obviously not travelling if ill and returning home if becoming unwell whilst away.

The likes of Sykes won’t refund if they can help it so people are still going to go on holiday (if they are allowed). They are offering the chance to rebook, usually at a much higher price, and that’s it. I think some people have got refunds now, but very few.

If restrictions are lifted we will think carefully about what to do. If Sykes won’t refund and we decide we’re not going we just won’t turn up - I’m not giving them the chance to book the cottage and make twice the money!

I very much doubt it but we can all live in hope :-)

So what would you advise, Ihaventgottime?

On balance, if you were in government, what would you advise?

Because if you tell everyone to stay home, you’d have to keep them home for a long time. Maybe until there’s a vaccine? Many, many people would lose their jobs and homes because the government can’t pay for this after June.

In an ideal world, we’d just sit tight wouldn’t we? Indefinitely. Until there’s a vaccine.

Lockdown was never a precursor to that though, it was to allow the NHS to increase capacity, because the country can’t afford to decimate industry, and that includes the tourism and service industry. I think we are at the beginning of a very long economic downturn and the true horror of that isn’t even nearly apparent yet. We might feel differently either way by August, that remains to be seen.

She has some support, but many of her friends are in the shielding category. To be honest, her home is old and has rising damp. I think it is important for her health to get out in the sunshine and take the dog for a short walk each day. It lifts her spirits and gives her something to live for.

Can I just add that I live in a popular Tourist destination , just like to swap it for one with blue sea once a year

As I said earlier though, we are in the middle of the storm at the moment , the first death was at the beginning of March, Italy who is reported to be 2 weeks ahead of us is talking about reducing their much harsher lock down restrictions very soon. We have no idea where we will be in 12 weeks or so. If the Government say don't travel, I won't.

Meant to add - I have wind feed for a while if the local council might consider limiting day trippers this year. They absolutely swell the numbers in St Ives, making social distancing impossible, increasing problems for shops/restaurants.

I wonder if they could just suspend the train on the branch line and close the car parks to all except locals and tourist residents? It would really help limit numbers

Daffodil I genuinely don't know, I'm sorry.
At the moment it seems like a choice between having a lot more people in Cornwall die, orcseeing our economy tank and a lot of people suffer in the long term.
My elderly, sick parents depend on money from visitors to their property who may well kill them.
I really don't know what to advise.
I just know there's no easy answer and it makes me really sad to see my home county in such dire straits.

@Genevieva Glad to hear she is able to get out with the dog, hopefully she will get a good few more months before us hordes descend. If she needs any support when I am down that neck of the woods I would be happy to do shopping for her if she wants to avoid the busy times, could do a helpful version of knock a door run

If you think it terms of Maslow's hierarchy of needs, allowing mass travel to holiday destinations is not going to be a government priority this summer. At the moment just keeping the NHS functioning, food in the shops and on people's plates is enough of a challenge.

France have said they are closed to tourists until October. I think that is sensible. Spain have said schools are closed until September. Human interactions are such an important part of school - especially for young children. There is no point in reopening school buildings if kids have to social distance. The first reopening step will surely be to allow more shops to open for local use.