Do you think Cornwall will be 'open' in July?

[NoSoapAndGory]

Hi all.

A purely speculative post to gauge opinions, as I know we don't know, don't have a crystal ball, etc etc.

We have booked a self catering holiday cottage near Bude for the first 10 days of July. We live in the South East, so it's about 5 hours drive to get there on a good day. We have a dog so would need to stop at a service station at least once.

As part of general future-focused conversation, DH and I are ruminating about

1: will we be 'allowed' to go
2: if we are, would we want to anyway?
3: if it's 'allowed', will the Bude community welcome us or hate us?
4: will the tourist industry want revenue or not?

Etc. Etc. Etc.

Anyone else having similar discussions, and if so, what are you thinking?

Lockdown was never a precursor to that though, it was to allow the NHS to increase capacity

The NHS has been able to increase capacity to cope with the situation now, not if the infection rate surged again.

This is about Germany, but it is a good explainer of how a small increase in the R rate would overwhelm the German health service. I don't think there is any reason to believe the situation would be different in the UK.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/angela-merkel-draws-on-science-background-in-covid-19-explainer-lockdown-exit

Obviously we will all have to adapt one way or another and lockdown can't last indefinitely. However some things are more likely than others to increase the reinfection rate and the chances of a return to lockdown, and lots of people moving across country and sharing accommodation is one of them.

Italy who is reported to be 2 weeks ahead of us is talking about reducing their much harsher lock down restrictions very soon.

The only reason the death rate has gone down is because people have been in lockdown. There is no cure and there is no evidence of increased immunity in the general population.

It’s the same everywhere. We all have elderly, sick relatives, friends with cancer, people who are worried about their jobs and homes. When DH first started getting covid patients on the ITU, I was terrified. I didn’t want him to go to work, but he had no choice.

I honestly think we have to listen to advice, act responsibly, think carefully about our actions. I think we need to keep a distance from people, wash our hands, wear masks, too probably.

But I do think we have to adopt something of a ‘keep calm, carry on’ attitude too, because panic and mass hysteria won’t help us get through this. It seems ironic that we’ve seen so many ‘keep calm, carry on’ memes in the last few years really.

I think we need to support our own industries rather than thinking about foreign holidays for a while. August is a little way off yet, time will tell.

When did France say that, Genevica? I’m interested because I’m supposed to go in September.

That is very kind Frumpety.

Macron said non-residents would not be permitted to enter the country until October.

At least that is what I remember from listening to the news. I am trying to find it now but it looks rather vaguer than was reported so you may be OK.

Where did you see that? I have a conference in France in September. I haven’t seen this.

Can you tell me your source?

So it’s not true then?

Yes I think Cornwall will be open in July,it has to be,the whole County depends on the Summer Season to make money to see them through the Winter.My son works there as a Chef,his Restaurant will be reopening as soon as possible,they are redesigning the interior so that tables are well apart with screens betweeen.So as soon as the lockdown eases in the next couple of weeks,the County will be open for business.

This virus is not going away anytime soon,we have to live with it.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8212973/European-Commission-President-Ursula-von-der-Leyen-warns-people-against-making-summer-holiday-plans.html

But it is why we see so many #stayhome posts.
People are scared that tourists will come down here for a jolly and leave a trail of dead people in their wake. Hysterical maybe, but its fear of the consequences of other peoples 'non-essential' actions.
The fear of the effect of deserted towns, derelict high streets, high numbers of unemployed & my favourite pub in the world never opening again will hit us at some point in the future.

Lockdown was never a precursor to that though, it was to allow the NHS to increase capacity

But we can’t ever increase capacity enough to deal with completely lifting lockdown. The aim is to get the numbers down and then keep the R0 low enough that there isn’t a second peak. Despite the ‘we’ve always been clear’ that seems to precede this statement the government were not entirely clear about this.

That R0 will be kept low by loosening some of the lockdown measures but I’d be surprised if that involved allowing people to travel all over the country. Starting off a second wave over the summer holidays might make it difficult for the schools to go back in September.

"Professor Paul Hunter, of the University of East Anglia, added: “There is no doubt this rate of decline is disappointing. Certainly it is far too high to consider lifting lockdown restrictions at present. We need to get numbers down to a few hundred new cases a day before we can do that. Such a decline could take months.”

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/25/boris-johnson-lockdown-dilemma-grim-virus-data

I assume there’s little point in visiting Devon or Cornwall if the pubs, restaurants, cafes, parks, beaches, NT properties, beauty spots, theme parks, tourist shops, clothes and surf shops are all still closed.

The use of the word ‘could’ is very interesting at the moment.

Yes I think Cornwall will be open in July,it has to be,the whole County depends on the Summer Season to make money to see them through the Winter

Not really, plenty of areas aren't visited by too many tourists and a lot of the money doesn't get to the average worker.
Tourism brings a whole shed load of problems too, not least the strain on services and housing.

I think one Govt minister said in any easing of restrictions, bars etc would be the last to be lifted and thought Sept Oct was a possibility.

I'm hoping so as our holiday abroad will be cancelled and we have half our family in Cornwall
And if I became ill unless Serious immediately ,we could be back home in 2.5 hrs and self isolate at home or go to our local hospital

It's all well saying you won't be welcomed but if travel is allowed and holiday parks are allowed to open are business that are open going to turn people away ? I very much doubt it . Cornwall and Devon rely on tourism wether they like it or not ,

I really don't know. Also live in county. And friends who own campsites say the issue won't be the tents. It's the communal shower and toilets and keeping them clean.

Treliske (the hospital) won't be able to cope if there's a surge tourists and the infection rate rises as a result. There was massive drive over the weekend to make sure that tourists don't visit.

Another thing is that a lot of key workers are using holiday homes atm to self distance from families.

Please.....#comebacklater. Cornwall has done fairly well at keeping the virus away so far....we'd very much like to keep it that way.

I don't see how restaurants pubs etc will be economically viable if they have to operate following social distancing standards - 30% reduced covers etc.
Plus 48 hrs between changeover in accommodation etc to ensure cleanliness...
I'm feeling pretty bleak about it.

There's indirect benefit as well, though, with people in the tourism industry then buying goods and services.

At the end of the day, people need to spend in order to raise taxes to....run the country.

don't see how restaurants pubs etc will be economically viable if they have to operate following social distancing standards - 30% reduced covers etc.
Plus 48 hrs between changeover in accommodation etc to ensure cleanliness...

I think you are right, but a managed reduction to restrictions that recognises the specific problems of social distancing for many industries is better than pretending that things can easily return to normal.

Even without restrictions, many people wouldn't be able to go on holiday anyway because they are in a high risk group or because of financial concerns.

Yes, people need to be able start working and spending money, but they can't do that if we keep having to return to lockdown.