..to think a lot of large houses will come on to the market?

[Whatarisk]

AIBU to assume that larger more expensive houses will start to appear on the property market?

My house is currently up for sale. We’d like to upsize. DH doesn’t think the property market will be affected much and if anything, people in larger houses will be put off listing their home. I think the opposite will be true.

Our jobs are relatively secure (in the sense that v few can be 100% confident of total job security right now) and I’m of the opinion that we sell ours, move in with my parents and hope something comes up. There are no properties that we are interested in currently but I’d rather sell before the market dips too much.

Interested in people’s views.

These threads aren’t disgusting at all. It’s good to discuss the economy.

If you remember back in 2011, there was a recession. Then in 2013/2014, it was a massive sellers market due to short supply and high demand. I think it will be the same again. House prices will initially drop so people won't sell but in the next 18 months to 2 years, there will be high demand and that will push the house prices back up. I don't think there will be a lot of hope of bagging a bargain unless people sell while the prices drop due to divorce/needing to desperately upsize. People will hang on and hold off selling while the prices drop and sell things/use savings to keep paying their mortgages then wait for that high demand moment and list when the prices go up.

We're in our early to mid fifties and live in a v big house with a large garden. We were thinking of downsizing and moving to a town with less outside space. I'd had enough of the bills, the upkeep and always driving to bars, restaurants and shops etc.

This has made us rethink. We value the space, even when two adult kids are here we can get away from each other. With everyone wfh, the space has kept me sane.

Hoping not to have to sell because of death or financial disaster- but looking at the pandemic and pension pot tumbling, that's not guaranteed.

If you are in a one bed flat, then selling up and moving to even a starter home will be a huge improvement. Isn't it? You don't need to instantly move into a 5 bed detached manor house. There is a large range going from one bed flat up. A lot of 3 bed semis and terrace starter homes will be at the bottom end of the market and owned by those who don't have a lot of equity and deep pockets.

I think there will be a huge drop in the property market too, similar to the 2009 crash. You just have to hang in there.

I’m in The sort of property you want - a family house in Hampshire. Most of my neighbours are older but I can’t see them downsizing. There are no nice retirement type houses in good locations being built developers seem to focus on cramming in ‘family’ homes everywhere and no financial reasons for these people who brought to. The 70s or 80s to do so.

I want to buy a bigger/better house because it seems like This is the best thing to do with my inheritance but there is nothing coming on in the area I want - perhaps only two or three things in the two years I’ve been thinking about this.

I can't see there been an influx of big houses come to market where I live. I suppose it depends on what your idea of a 'big' house is though and the demographics of the area. I'm thinking of our village- all the big houses (£700k- £1mil) are owned by doctors and lawyers etc i.e the sort of people who have probably been paying off a lot of their mortgage, have comparably low monthly mortgage payments and savings and won't directly be hit by unemployment. I can't see there'd be many of these come up around here and even if they did and they were priced very low I would've thought there'd have been plenty of cash buyers/ people with large deposits to satisfy the high LTV % to swoop straight in.

In our area I think sadly it'll be the houses in the low-mid bracket that might come up for sale as they are owned by younger families (we have a good school that people purposely relocate to the catchment), who have probably stretched to get on the market and drained their savings, have jobs more susceptible to redundancies etc.

@Whatarisk are you relocating your jobs?

We've got a big house (I suppose - it's a three bed detached so bigger than many, not as big as some).

But because we're on our 2nd marriages we had a big deposit so, although we borrowed a lot when we bought it 12 years ago, we've chipped away and have a £75,000 mortgage left. Unless we both lose our jobs we can cope with that.

Many of our neighbours are older and whilst they may be thinking of downsizing, unless something terrible happens which affects their mobility, they'll probably wait.

I would think many families, if they've sadly lost parents who have a large house (if that's what you're thinking) will put the house up for rent. That's what we did with M & FIL house when they died a few years ago. We waited it out. So many people needed to rent and we didn't worry about people on housing benefit - if the rent was paid and they were decent people they rented the house. It took about three years for the house to come back to the level it had been but we ended up selling to the tenant at the time so everyone was happy.

There may be some houses coming on because of death but if families can wait it out and rent them out they'd have an income and the house would increase in value eventually. Depends on the need for cash I suppose.

Prices only drop when people are forced to sell because they can’t pay their mortgages. The government furlough scheme is propping up house prices by ensuring that most people can pay their mortgages. There won’t be many forced sellers, and most of those will be at the bottom end of the market (where people are losing unskilled or low level jobs and zero hour contracts, and don’t have access to additional cash to meet their mortgage payments, so they are forced to sell or get repossessed). Most of those in big houses will have plenty of money to pay their mortgage and won’t dream of selling for less.

There may be some houses coming on because of death but if families can wait it out and rent them out they'd have an income and the house would increase in value eventually. Depends on the need for cash I suppose.

Most people in the SE need that money to get on the ladder or move up it.

What do you call a large house? Anything with 4 bedrooms, or 5 beds, 3 recep. inc. morning room, and a half acre garden?

I’m not sure there’s going to be a glut of either, not very many more than usually come on the market anyway because of the 5 Ds - death, debt, divorce, decrepitude, dementia. Not in any given area, anyway.

Might add that I’ve known of probate house sales which have taken ages - one was on the market for 3 years! - because one of the beneficiaries of the will insisted on ‘not giving it away!’ - i.e. pricing too high and turning down reasonable offers.

I think people underestimate the upkeep of big houses, I grew up in a big house & it's beautiful but I wouldn't buy one so large, too much upkeep. My parents will downsize soon, they love their road but loads of their neighbours/friends have left. They are stalling because they want to know where I will go as we live very close.

House prices dropping is only an issue if you go to negative equity.

If you sell your house cheaper what your buying will be cheaper.

Bigger issue will be if banks will lend and what mortgage rates will be.

I don't think there is any logic at all in your 'hope' @Whatarisk

Bigger houses go up for sale when the owners either move to even bigger houses or downsize.

If they want to downsize they need to buy a smaller house. Yes?
So are there a glut of these around? No.

People in smaller houses are not necessarily going to sell up to create a glut are they? Where would they move to? Rentals?

Most of the people we know in larger houses ( talking £1m+) are retired or mortgage-free.

Your question doesn't make any sense to me but perhaps I'm missing something.

All I can see is property prices falling across the board which will enable first time buyers to get onto the market so smaller homes will become more scarce.

Not everyone has lost their jobs and some niche professions are still recruiting.

I haven’t read the whole thread but when we wanted to upsize most of the houses we wanted were estate sales. Many older people live in larger houses they bought when they had bigger families and houses were cheap. Unsavoury as it may be, unfortunately many older people will die in the coming months. So yes. There will probably be more large houses for sale soon.

There are lots of new build properties available in Hampshire, Boorley Green near Botley being an example I would have thought the builders will be desperate to shift them, so you could probably get a deal. This obviously assumes that you can get a buyer for your London flat. I would price it sensibly to get rid of it as soon as the lockdown is eased. Personally I think any property price dip will come later down the line once the impact of redundancies, etc. filter through.

There's always something that makes people cautious. Last year it was Brexit which seemed to put people off. We were keen to move to another area from our home in Somerset to be nearer our daughter who was pregnant. So we did it - put our cottage with land on for sale in early spring at a reasonable price - sold within two weeks to buyers who lived in a commuter belt for London. We found a four bed new-ish build with a smaller garden, still in a lovely rural area. All done and dusted by late summer. Neighbours who were greedier and unrealistic on price still have their property languishing on Rightmove. Just go for it, and see what happens. No such thing as the perfect time in my opinion. Just make it work for you!!! Good luck, OP, Hampshire is lovely.

Of course house prices will drop like a stone - given that you now need a 40% deposit to buy as mainstream mortgage companies are not offering to lend more than that - why do you think that is?

It's because they think prices are potentially going to fall 40% and they don't want to be left with the debt.

And how many people at the bottom of the ladder do you think have 40% deposits to draw on? Particularly in a recession?

People who have lost jobs will need to sell - it might not be those at the top of the ladder, and it won't be straightaway, but those at the top of the ladder will not be able to realise the same sums if the ladder beneath them has crumbled.

In response to some of the comments around banks not giving mortgages; I’m in the process of buying and my mortgage was accepted on Friday, we have a 10% deposit

The bankers and doctors in their 5 bed detached properties will be fine - which is the type of house op is hoping will come on the market.

Well you could argue they may face higher taxes, who knows.

I'm sure they will. But when you factor in the costs of moving, the dead money in stamp duty etc, it would have to a an awful lot more tax to making moving to a smaller house worthwhile. I think they will just tighten their belts in other areas for a few years and get on with it.

Of course house prices will drop like a stone - given that you now need a 40% deposit to buy as mainstream mortgage companies are not offering to lend more than that - why do you think that is?

Absolute rubbish.

There will be a lot of people such as me who bought their large house many years ago, so who have a comparatively small mortgage.

I couldn't afford to buy my house now, but I have no intention of moving.

buzz91 - what's your mortgage rate? And which lender?

You may have found one of the few mortgages still available for 90% LTV, but you are being brave, given that the industry as a whole has removed these products.

I wouldn't want to risk it personally at the moment - here are some headlines about the industry as a whole, as opposed to your anecdote:

www.mortgagefinancegazette.com/lending-news/lenders-withdrawing-higher-ltv-mortgages-26-03-2020/

www.insidehousing.co.uk/news/news/mortgage-lenders-withdraw-products-for-low-deposit-buyers-65917

Lots more links on this topic - just google.

LizzieSiddal - do you have any evidence that mortgage companies have NOT removed high LTV mortgages?

I can give you hundreds of links proving that they have. eg www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news/halifax-withdraws-all-mortgages-over-60-ltv/

Other than wishful thinking, on what grounds was my post "Absolute rubbish"?

I own a big house and we had absolutely no plans to move before the pandemic because of the 10% stamp duty we would have to pay.

So now with the pandemic and the probable oncoming depression I don’t see that we will be moving - ever!