..to think a lot of large houses will come on to the market?

[Whatarisk]

AIBU to assume that larger more expensive houses will start to appear on the property market?

My house is currently up for sale. We’d like to upsize. DH doesn’t think the property market will be affected much and if anything, people in larger houses will be put off listing their home. I think the opposite will be true.

Our jobs are relatively secure (in the sense that v few can be 100% confident of total job security right now) and I’m of the opinion that we sell ours, move in with my parents and hope something comes up. There are no properties that we are interested in currently but I’d rather sell before the market dips too much.

Interested in people’s views.

So because you want it to be true, you believe it will be true. It doesn't work like that, OP . I think if anything people will want to hang onto a larger property in case their adult children need to move in, because it has a bigger garden, may be detached. And if one is inherited due to a death, the family may well decide it's a good idea to keep it and move in themselves.

If you are banking on someone dying to be able to snap up a bargain I think you could be living with your parents for a very long time.

If someone dies either the house will pass to their spouse and they might want to stay in the family home or if the sole owner of the house dies and it is passed to the family to sell it could be months before they are able to take full possession before being able to market it.

I can only go by the only person to die in our family in the last 40 years who had a large house.

It took about 18 months before the will could be executed. and the death duties finalised.

With the amount of deaths and the fact that the dept who handle that sort of thing are probably not working or working only with a skeleton staff and not actually visiting the properties to count the teaspoons or see if there is a Rembrandt hung in the dining room then I wouldn’t count on there being quick bargains to be had in those circumstances

It might be true - loads of older people live in family sized homes long after the kids have left. Many are going to die. You’ll be vilified for thinking like this on here. All our parents are high risk and they have two family sized properties between them and their kids won’t want to live in them. Plus those mortgaged up to the eyeballs with no spare cash who’s businesses/employment goes tits up. Oh and the divorces that will result from enforced time together.

On the other hand there are loads of families like you (and us) living in small flats and desperate to have a decent family home but priced out, despite professional well paid careers. This competition will raise prices somewhat. It just depends how long this goes on for and how quickly the economy recovers.

The people who will gain most are the cash rich. If you have cash in the bank and a secure job you will be able to take advantage of any drop in the market. But good luck selling when there are no viewings taking place. You may find you can’t sell in time to be in a position to buy when it happens.

@Oliversmumsarmy most of estates won’t need that level of assessment as they’ll fall below the threshold for inheritance tax, especially if prices fall. I’m not sure what the threshold is now but it’s heading for £1m between a couple if it includes a principle residence. Plus most families are smaller and have their own homes by the time parents die so they want to sell. The civil servants involved will be key workers and most civil servants are working from home.

Why not rent out your property and use the rental income to rent something in Hampshire?

I’d rather sell before the market dips too much.

As someone in the same position as you, I think it's too late for that. We were already seeing a market that had few first time buyers - people who were holding off because they were apprehensive about Brexit affecting house prices. When the housing market starts up again, it's only going to be worse. First time buyers will be expecting a drop in prices and concerns about their job security will make them less willing to take on the commitment of a mortgage, particularly one that stretches them.

Why not rent? Who actually wants to leave London except for children?

I was hoping to buy this year with my partner (FTB) I am gutted as I am worried banks won't lend to us (only have 5% deposit) lack of houses to buy from, more competition from other buyer who were unable to buy the previous months in lockdown.

I am more worried about the competition from other buyers which I think will drive the prices up!

I see a fair number of big houses coming on the market due to deaths, combined with less buyers = house price falls, but who knows. The economy will be fucked if this continues. It will be a buyers market for the Chinese and anyone in a stable sector.

I think a number of families will be looking to move for more space outside London. We have a buy to let house in a commutable market town which is up for rent, and have had a lot of interest from families in London.

If Covid-19 has taught us all anything, it is surely the benefits of having a garden and a spacious, comfortable home. So while there will always be people who have their own reasons for selling up, I don’t think the upper end of the market will be singled out in terms of price drops.

I don’t think there will be lots of large properties flooding the market.

Deceased estates take a long time to settle especially where probable has to be sought. If there is a single beneficiary then they may move in or the may let the property (especially if they cannot sell and achieve their desired asking price). If there are multiple beneficiaries then I expect the process takes even longer.

During the last recession I had a friend who was liking to upsize. Unfortunately, everyone selling still wanted to achieve a pre-recession asking price. Therefore properties sat on the market for ages as sellers were not willing to pay more than the property was worth.

You will still have properties coming into the market due to debt, divorce and death. However, I don’t thinking it’s going to be the flood people are expecting.

I will be very surprised if we dont have a housing market price crash, a lot of businesses will never start work again, the market for anything, not just property is uncertain. I have seen the previous crashes, having been told on here and other sites, I am lucky, its alright for my generation, (never mind the fact I had 4 jobs on the go just to keep a roof over our head!) I got stuck in negative equity in 1990, the previous year my 3 bed semi was worh £100k, mortgage £64, sold for £39!, (these properties until recently were £350K. I do know a couple of older people living in the big family homes, a lot now in a couple of rooms downstairs, carers coming in. Cannot see the logic,we downsized to near the sea, as did a lot of my neighbours, their downsize wasnt like ours because a lot had absolutely huge properties, and the ones they have now, you could loose the whole of mine in their lounge.

We were looking to move before lockdown but now I think we won't be able to afford the house we want due to the reduction in LTV. We would have been stretching ourselves for that house and after all this happening, it's looking more risky to stretch so far. It also doesn't have as big a garden as we have now and no local green space so might not be the best choice anyway.

I think any bigger properties coming on the market will likely be those who have fallen victim to job losses etc. Other than that, I think people will stay put as long as possible until the market recovers.

Read this post to hopefully get an idea of what is going on out there, but what a mixed response it has got.

I echo what other have said - people will only sell if they have to and certainly wouldn't do it voluntarily, but you do have the effect of buy to let/holiday let being less in demand and if we are falling in to depression, sadly lots of people may be repossessed if there is high unemployment. In the last depression there was hyper inflation for goods, but a lot of items lost their value, including property. Might not be great news for you since the one you are in currently may lose the most, since London prices are ridiculously inflated. That was nearly 100 years ago though. Who knows what it will look like now if we do slip into unstable financial times again.

It's hard being over crowded isn't it OP? I am living in a bit of an overcrowded situation, but in a nice area. Every now and then I do think I really need to move into a house with a proper garden, but right now it seems like a really bad idea. It is grim in the winter, but because of where we live it is great in tge summer and I start to like it again. I just hope that the housing market becomes more fair again after this and more younger people can get on the property market. If anything I can just see more of a divide emerging between the 'haves' and 'have nots' unfortunately. With more of us being in the 'have not' category. It really sucks.

I think that the confusion/ issue here is your use of the word “large” - do I think the market will be flooded with mansions? No. Do I think it is perfectly possible for you to sell your 1br and move into a larger (3 bed +) house in Hampshire in the next year? Yes.

Ergh this x 100 unfortunately

During the last recession I had a friend who was liking to upsize. Unfortunately, everyone selling still wanted to achieve a pre-recession asking price. Therefore properties sat on the market for ages as sellers were not willing to pay more than the property was worth

We saw an amazing place last year (probate) the "children" men and women in their 60s would not accept anything less than 1m. The house was in a terrible state (wallpaper from the 70s, damp, an extension that was failing) and was worth no more than £800 MAX. They priced it based on another house that sold (totally renovated super high spec) then added a bit more because their garden was bigger

It never sold and they are presumably still letting the place rot waiting it out.

Before coronavirus there was already a theory that in 10 yrs or so lots of the older generation who tend to own the bigger family houses will start to die/require care so the homes would all come onto the market at the same time leading to an oversupply. Most families who inherit them would sell due to tax, sharing between siblings, care costs, etc.

This could accelerate it I guess

I’m interested in why you think larger houses in particular will come up for sale? I agree with your husband actually. People who have large desirable family homes are less likely to be under pressure to move for more space. They are more likely to have weathered this crisis well and more likely to have retained their jobs on full pay, due to their jobs being largely desk and phone based, so easier to do from home.

I think we can expect to see a LOT of flats coming to the market as people vow never to be trapped indoors again. Renters in flats who can afford to move to a house will do so. Fewer people will be interested in renting a flat is they have a choice, so the rents on flats will drop and on houses they will rise, because of supply and demand.

I think developers who are trying sell huge developments of small modern flats in urban locations with no access to private outdoor space of any kind will really struggle to sell them and their values will plummet. (Liverpool, I’m looking at you.) They will end up offloading them wholesale to investors and landlords and housing associations (even more than they do already.)

@sushiroller we had the exact same thing. We ended up offering £1m, HR was only £840,000.

It fell through because they turned out to be stubborn buggers on everything!!!

What about all the buy you let's who rely on overseas air bnb or short term let's? They could be in trouble.

Imo the gov should never have propped up house prices during the last recession as ridiculous prices don't help many & is one of the reasons we have such low productivity.

There is a huge issue with second steppers in the SE who are on the ladder but can't move up even with equity, this issue is not going away. Do you think the 2 bed flat you're buying today for 650k that cost similar 3 yrs will be worth 900k in 3 yrs? I'd vote no.

FWIW OP, it sounds as though you should make sure you are ready to go to market the day we come out of lockdown.

By being ready immediately you may be able to catch some pent up demand from buyers who haven’t been able to house shop over this period and that will give you a head start.

There is no way you want to ride out the oncoming property stagnation if you have a one year old in a one bedroom. The crisis won’t be over fast enough for you.

If you are prepared to drop your price, do it at the outset for maximum interest. Sell quickly and move back to your parents or look as cash buyers.

I’m interested in why you think larger houses in particular will come up for sale? The older generations tend to own the larger more expensive homes.

Homeowners over the age of 50 hold 75pc of Britain's housing wealth, according to new research, revealing the huge generational divide in the property market

Nope because people likely to downsize will need their cash, so I would say the opposite. Sorry and all that.

Let’s me take me, mid fifties, no mortgage, last DC is looking to buy first home. I want to downsize now to a bungalow but I wouldn’t because any spare equity will bump up my pension pot, so I hold on until prices recover.

No urgency to get rid of the family home, and definitely not at less than I could do.

imo the gov should never have propped up house prices during the last recession as ridiculous prices don't help many & is one of the reasons we have such low productivity.

Agree on this. We have a lot of generations who are really frustrated about lack of social mobility and I think this has an effect on productivity. Myself and DP have ok jobs - slightly above the local average wages each, but this is not enough to save with rentals so high. Years ago we would not have had this issue. As much as people try to dismiss this, you really can't disguise this fact.

I things move in a similar direction to 2008, I wonder what will be done this time to paper over the cracks and not solve the real problems.