..to think a lot of large houses will come on to the market?

[Whatarisk]

AIBU to assume that larger more expensive houses will start to appear on the property market?

My house is currently up for sale. We’d like to upsize. DH doesn’t think the property market will be affected much and if anything, people in larger houses will be put off listing their home. I think the opposite will be true.

Our jobs are relatively secure (in the sense that v few can be 100% confident of total job security right now) and I’m of the opinion that we sell ours, move in with my parents and hope something comes up. There are no properties that we are interested in currently but I’d rather sell before the market dips too much.

Interested in people’s views.

In reality prices never drop much. People who don't have to sell just sit tight in a poor market. That makes there a lack of properties on the market which keeps prices keen.

We live in a large house with v large garden. We’d planned to move soon but the lockdown has made us rethink.
We feel extremely lucky and it’s not something we will give up for a while.

OP, there will be a lag of about 9 months (6-12months) in the property market before any price drops properly crystallise. This is the time it takes for people to realise the economic impact of job loss/business reduction/negative prospects on their own personal finances.

People with mortgages are currently on payment holidays and will start defaulting in late autumn and over Winter 20/21. Distressed sales won’t start affecting the market until around Easter 2021.

So you have a window. Try to sell as soon as you can and don’t ‘hold out’. If it was me I’d take the first credible offer, and with a one bed hopefully that will be from a FTB ready to move.

Funnily enough I did remark to husband that there seemed to be a lot of huge houses going up for sale all of a sudden I'm talking about the big mansion types though.

I don't have many millions to buy one, but I like to look

Moving is stressful under any circumstances, most people end up thinking they sold too low and bought too high even if its just a niggling feeling.

If there is a 20% drop in the market, you will gain more if you are upsizing though any LTV change may impact you depending on whether your previous calculations had maxed put your potential budget. Also London properties can take large hits during a slump which take time to filter into the wider South East but then bounce back more quickly.

A large house in Hampshire could be a nice 3 bed in Farnham for £450k or something for £4m!! So I am assuming if there is 'nothing on the market you are interested in right now', you have some exacting criteria which may narrow things down. You might be lucky OP but don't expect to swap your 1 bed in London for a mansion in the country! If you can face the drama of living with your parents, go for it but it is a lot to ask of your husband.

@Seapoint2002 I bought my flat at a 20% discount due to brexit. The houses in my area also fell. I think this is bigger than brexit because in the run up to brexit, we had full employment and mortgage approvals hit an all time high. Now the estimate is 10-20% unemployment. A lot of them are.renters and many landlords are dependent on rent to pay mortgage. So these properties would flood the market. Also there would be some home owners who lose their jobs and have to sell.

I think this may drive prices up and cause a housing bubble.

Who's going buy them?

I think it’s flats and houses without gardens will be up for sale first.

Me aan dmy partner were looking at new houses for fun last night and the only things around us under £150,000 were just shared ownership properties but there were a couple very nice places over that so I think I agree that a lot of larger houses are probably gonna start popping up in a few months

It’s always difficult to predict the property market accurately because you’ll often have small areas that deviate from the norm.

I think it’s likely that there will going to be one humongous recession after this. I think selling your flat before prices fall might be a good idea.
I’m guessing you want to move nearer to your parents anyway so it makes sense to live in the area you want to buy in. You can always move into rented accommodation if you don’t find somewhere suitable to buy straightaway.

I think anyone with a huge mortgage who loses their job will be the ones selling up first and downsizing. So it might well mean larger properties will come on the market.

I live in a rural part of Ireland in a 5 bed house with a good sized garden (2 acres) and I’m hugely grateful on a daily basis that we moved here from our 3 bed in the U.K. I would have hated to be stuck in lockdown in our old house compared to living here. Thankfully, we have no mortgage so we won’t be downsizing anytime soon.

Are you thinking because older people in big houses will die or because people will lose jobs and have to downsize.

I don't think either will happen. The older people dying will mostly be those in care homes, assisted living or flats. Well off older people still capable of living in a large home will probably survive this.

And sadly the job losses will be mostly amongst lower income workers. Those supporting the service industry.

Most people on higher wages will not be effected, they are working from home and taking home full pay. The only people I know effected are self employed.

Could you rent? We did this in the last recession. We were looking to buy a bigger house. We sold our house just before the property market dipped and then we went into rented since our purchase fell through. We then waited and bought our current house at a massive discount from its top of the market price.

No, there will be a few, but it will likely be mainly starter homes where people who have recently worked their balls off to be able to get onto the property ladder lose their homes. So no, more than likely there won't be lots of people who have also upsized at somepoint who will be selling for cheap so you can climb the slippery pole.

I am assuming that you mean due to the deaths of people?
Some properties will naturally come onto the market then if the owners have died - assuming both have died/the sole owner died/people want to sale to free up money to help family members who have lost jobs/lost loved ones.....?
I think that house values will fall.... high number of unemployed, people struggling to pay bills, deaths so more property to sell, etc etc

And sadly the job losses will be mostly amongst lower income workers. Those supporting the service industry.

Maybe, but those are not the people with huge mortgages and big houses in Hampshire because the houses are unaffordable on service industry wages.

Maybe, but those are not the people with huge mortgages and big houses in Hampshire because the houses are unaffordable on service industry wages.

That's my point. The houses coming into the market will be flats, terraced houses, starter homes. The bankers and doctors in their 5 bed detached properties will be fine - which is the type of house op is hoping will come on the market.

The bankers and doctors in their 5 bed detached properties will be fine - which is the type of house op is hoping will come on the market.

Well you could argue they may face higher taxes, who knows.

@Leflic those small businesses also belong to individuals whose earnings would take a hit.in some ways, it makes more sense for a rich person to sell his second home/even the main residence because the cash could really make a difference to his business interests. Most people don't need a 5 bedroom house. For an ordinary person, the house is often the only significant asset.

OP, I appreciate that not having the outdoor space for your toddler during the lockdown is difficult, I don't think moving in with family is the answer though.

I think a lot of people without gardens will now be thinking they'd like one, and the flipside of that is that the people who do have gardens will be wanting to keep them!

Good luck with the sale, I see that you've already got your flat on the market. The property search is always stressful but stick to your budget and look at houses around that mark rather than look at property you'd like but is well out of budget! Otherwise you'll be stuck with your parents for a long time - I take it they've got the type of house you'd like?

We were thinking of selling in the next 12 months, but will almost certainly sit tight now for a couple of years. We don’t need more space if anything it was going to be a downsize from 4 bed to 3. I now think it would be wiser to improve the house we are in and pay off more of the mortgage, then see where we are in a couple of years.

A lot of them are.renters and many landlords are dependent on rent to pay mortgage. So these properties would flood the market.

Sadly not true in Hampshire which is where the Op wants to move to. Firstly the rental market is a massive business and landlords will be able to lower rent and still cover their mortgages. Secondly the equity in many houses means they still make money even if is empty. House prices up by 30% in the last 5 years. Yep an actual third.

Thanks for the replies!

God no, I actually wasn’t referring to houses becoming available due to death from Covid! I was referring to houses becoming available simply because the job market is all but evaporating and people are losing jobs left, right and centre and companies are dissolving.

I didn’t want to talk figures as it seems crass. But perhaps it is relevant to the discussion. As I said initially, it’s very much a first world problem and we’d ultimately manage if we couldn’t move.

Our flat is valued (as of Feb 2020) at £650,000. It has a garden, if that’s relevant and is in a desirable ‘leafy’ (by London standards) area of London in Zone 2.

We want to move to Hampshire and we’re looking at a budget of £800k Max. We’d have around £150k equity. Previously, our salaries more than covered this jump but obviously the revised mortgage offer terms could compromise our plan.

I think we can expect to see a LOT of flats coming to the market as people vow never to be trapped indoors again. Renters in flats who can afford to move to a house will do so.

This.

If prices fall then people with secure jobs will buy if they want to upsize. Buying in a bad market can be good as long as you get the tail end of it.

I find these threads disgusting. It’s basically saying. How much do you think I can profit from this tragedy? Show some decorum will you?