..to think a lot of large houses will come on to the market?

[Whatarisk]

AIBU to assume that larger more expensive houses will start to appear on the property market?

My house is currently up for sale. We’d like to upsize. DH doesn’t think the property market will be affected much and if anything, people in larger houses will be put off listing their home. I think the opposite will be true.

Our jobs are relatively secure (in the sense that v few can be 100% confident of total job security right now) and I’m of the opinion that we sell ours, move in with my parents and hope something comes up. There are no properties that we are interested in currently but I’d rather sell before the market dips too much.

Interested in people’s views.

as long as we can afford our mortgage we'll stay in our large house.We have realised how lucky we are to have plenty of space for all of us and a sizeable garden. If either of us dies we have life insurance to cover the mortgage and income to support the parent left with the Kids.

our house is in demand as its near outstanding primary and secondary schools, at least a £250,000 premium.

It depends what you mean by "bigger house". Pepe on here are talking about 6 bedroom properties whereas you may be just as happy with a three bed and a garden.

At the moment, everything is in suspension but there will be job losses, redundancies and price moving when we come out of lock-down. Wait and see.

MrsJoshNavidi - it doesn't matter if you move or not. House price rises/falls are not set by people staying put, they ae set by people moving.

If everyone in your street stays put except for one person, who sells their property for 30% less than identical houses in the same street sold for last year, then all identical houses in the street will be worth 30% less - because that is what potential buyers will compare it to and also what mortgage valuers will look at.

It won't affect you either way - you will still be able to go on living in your house and pay your small mortgage. Exactly the same as when prices rose - that didn't affect you either. Your house is still your home. It hasn't changed and become your piggy bank.

I'd be surprised if a week passes on MN without someone expecting a fall in property prices for some reason. Tax increases on second homes, Brexit, now the pandemic - these are the most recent ones.

All bets are off anything can happen

ChicCroissant - well, that's true.

But these are not normal times by a long way.

It's possible that we can have a recession with the economy falling by up to 35% in a quarter and the housing market can come out of that totally unscathed - but you have to admit that that scenario looks...um...somewhat hopeful, to put it mildly?

www.ft.com/content/2c4b2ad9-6b7f-44a7-87ca-64475365ad96

I'm not sure that trying to judge future performance by past performance works so well in the middle of a global pandemic and lockdown.

But maybe that's just me.

Maybe everything else will be impacted but house prices not at all.

It seems unlikely, but who knows? I was going to buy before this and now won't be - I'll be putting my money where my mouth is.

People may want to move, but may not be able to.

For a 'housing bubble' to happen, people need to have steady jobs and afford a mortgage. Many, many people will have neither after lockdown as so many people will have lost jobs/income.

We are all "trapped" in our houses 23 hours a day. Some people more so if they are shielded. Many people are trying to work from home and one of the biggest lasting changes from this period is that many people may move to do so permanently even once this is over. High population density and shared gates/doors/hallways/gardens/etc leads to increased risk during a pandemic. Neighbours being on top of each other are more likely than not to be incredibly annoying a lot of the time when everyone is home all day.

Larger, detached houses where everyone has their own space. With decent gardens for children to play and adults to relax outdoors. With space to not have your neighbours invading your peace all the time. With space to live as you want (under the circumstances) without too much fear of viral spread. With nice areas to walk in that aren't too crowded. Have just shot up in desirability. Obviously they were always desirable but right now, their appeal will be sky high.

I do find the way that so many who have unquestioningly accepted house price rises far higher than income for the last 25 years refuse to believe that house prices can fall in the face of the worst economic shock for 200 years quite sweet. And quite mystifying.

I wonder if these were the same people who thought the virus would never come to Europe, or that the lockdown wouldn't happen? Is it connected to unrealistic optimism?

As you might guess from my username, I'm naturally more pessimistic.

alittleprivacy - a good point. More people will be working from home after this, which means the need to be within commuting distance of work will reduce.

I imagine that the impact of this will be that house prices in commuting areas will reduce, while house prices in beautiful but less accessible areas will rise.

Why pay half a million for a shoebox in zone 3, when you can work from home in a big house in the country somewhere.

So good news for big home owners wanting to sell living in cheaper parts of the country, less good news for home owners wanting to sell in/near currently expensive areas.

And good news for buyers with jobs who were priced out of areas near work, who've endured long commutes.

I have had loads of property issues over the years from remembering the 1970s property crash when I was a teenager to the recession of the early 1980s (followed by 1980s boom years) and our sure fire winner 2 buy to "lose" London flats which sold at large losses in about 1996 ( we lost about £40k over what we bought for them never mind letting losses) . That is about £76k of losses after allowing for inflation. We sold the one bed for £46k and the 2 bed for about £55k? SO £40k losses on those values - about £20km per flat is a bit loss as a percentage of purchase price. We also sold in 1997 the house we lived in which we bought in 1990 for slightly less than we paid 7 years before. So I am certainly not someone who thinks property is a one way bet!

Larger, detached houses where everyone has their own space.

There's not a lot of them in London already & certainly not targeted at the likes of us.

We have already arranged with our managers to work 4 out of 5 days from home. We will travel to London in separate days so there’s always one at home to do drop off/pick up at nursery or at my mums (she’ll be having her twice a week)

People will definitely want nice houses but they probably always did if they could afford them. I mean I doubt there were many families living in cramped flats in London who have enough money to live in a large house with a garden and have just realised the error of their ways. Most people are already living in the best house they can afford, whatever their income, so only a small number will change their priorities in the next year or two.

@ANoiseAnnoys : I own a big house and we had absolutely no plans to move before the pandemic because of the 10% stamp duty we would have to pay.

You do know the seller doesn't pay Stamp Duty that is paid by the buyer?

We live in a large house and were thinking about downsizing but the lockdown has changed my mind. The absolute luxury of having space for three adults to live fairly separate lives WFH during the day and then close the doors on the work spaces and relax together in the evenings has been a godsend. It’s allowed us to establish a routine that resembles normal life and has made me feel very attached to this house.

Yes, Mollybutton we would have to pay stamp duty on the next house we bought (assuming we were moving to a slightly more expensive house it would be 10%)

@Whatarisk good for you. I said upthread if DH can wfh more we will leave London & have a lot more options. A regular long tiring commute is out of the question.

I've seen quite a few HMOs come on the market before the pandemic, with landlords looking to sell up due to changes in tax etc. They usually need work but would make lovely family homes. Other than that, if a large percentage of older people die, some will come on the market as children sell the houses.

Last recession, prices dropped a little around here, but there was definitely less on the market as anyone who didn't have to sell stayed, so demand stayed high and prices held reasonably well rather than tanking.

I think most older home owners, say 50+, will have the means to stay in their larger houses and ride out any storm by and large. A lot of people would have been now looking at retirement planning and getting finances in order, have much smaller mortgages as have had many years to pay that debt down, and may financially cope by putting retir,ent off for a few years.

We have a large house with still a sizeable mortgage on it but it is interest only, we benefited hugely from interest rates massive droppong around 2009, and have been overpaying for 11 years now (it was an eye watering mortgage amount back then) , but if our income drops significantly we’ll just revert to the actual mortgage payment due which is under £140 per month, and ride it out until we can overpay again.

Older people have advantages from being home owners for so long, which means there may not be the influx onto the market of the larger houses many seem to think will happen.

@alittleprivacy yes i think most people probably want detached houses. If i had my choice, I would be buying a little cottage in Muswell Hill instead of the 2 bedroom flat with communal garden that I currently own in East Finchley. The flat costs £400K, the house is listed for a million. I have zero chance of affording that post covid because affording that house would have meant that DH and I are able to massively upscale our career and salaries. Given that I can't even go to interviews and am working from home in the foreseeable future, I would say that I can't really realistically expect that. Post covid, even people who are comfortable would be wary of taking on additional financial commitments. They might even downsize. We always talk about the low income being disproportionately affected, but what about the relatively wealthy business owners? Private schools are now offering 20% discounts to affected parents and they are even fearful that some schools may close; i dont think we can assume the same wouldn't happen to luxury property.

Thank you Daphne! Funnily enough we’re looking at Meon Valley area, so you probably have an idea of what we’re after. Ideally one of the many divine little country lanes which are in abundance but the houses never come up for sale 😂 in fact, the house you sold sounds like exactly the thing we’re after. I would put money on having looked at it when I desperately trawl Rightmove and the ‘sold listings’ to get an idea of how the market has played out in recent months/years!

Why pay half a million for a shoebox in zone 3, when you can work from home in a big house in the country somewhere.

I live in one of those zone 3 "shoeboxes" and I would much rather be here than in the country. It has been a godsend to be in London during the pandemic. Ridiculously easy to get hold of all basic supplies, delicious restaurants still delivering, neighbours in close proximity so you can club together for online shops.

It's unprecedented situation, especially with government printing money left and right (for a good reason). We have sold our first home in January and are currently renting because we couldn't find anything suitable. I'm slightly worried that there will be an inflation (God forbid hyperinflation) and our deposit will be worth nothing