..to think a lot of large houses will come on to the market?

[Whatarisk]

AIBU to assume that larger more expensive houses will start to appear on the property market?

My house is currently up for sale. We’d like to upsize. DH doesn’t think the property market will be affected much and if anything, people in larger houses will be put off listing their home. I think the opposite will be true.

Our jobs are relatively secure (in the sense that v few can be 100% confident of total job security right now) and I’m of the opinion that we sell ours, move in with my parents and hope something comes up. There are no properties that we are interested in currently but I’d rather sell before the market dips too much.

Interested in people’s views.

I think only people who really need to sell will be selling - across all sizes of property. So there will always be the divorces / deaths / repossesion type sales but anyone who is not desperate to sell will very likely put it off meaning there will be not so much for sale which may well stop the prices dropping too dramatically.

People who want to buy will find it hard to come by mortgages unless they have large deposits (or are cash buyers) as mortgage companies will decrease the LTV in case of property prices decreasing. Mortgage companies may also be picky about only lending to people who work in very secure industries.

No one will move unless they absolutely have to. Most people in large houses will find a way to stretch to paying their mortgage and essential bills as they are more likely to have assets to sell, savings, investments etc etc..

I would stay put if I were you OP rather than trying to predict and take advantage of an incredibly volatile situation.

I would have thought anyone in a big house now would be determined to stay in it.

So they will become rare and go up in price.

I think that you are both wrong. I think the property market will be affected a great deal, but I also think that selling and moving in with your parents in the hope that ‘something will come up’ would be foolish.

Makes sense. I suppose it’s impossible to predict. Currently living in a one bedroom flat in London with a baby who is now walking and we were hoping to move back to Hampshire. Appreciate that it’s a first world problem but the thought of being stuck here for god knows how long fills me with dread!!

I wouldn't be selling now.

No, sadly I don't think bigger houses will be for sale.

Good luck selling a one bed flat in London . Property always dips where it's most inflated. Starting with London... definitely don't sell just now.

To be honest I’d be happy to take a 20% drop in price now just to move on desperate, me? No

After we come out of lock down property will decrease in value as economy will be weak. You can;t sell house whilst in lock down. I would hold on and sell when prices go back up. People in large houses usually have other assets they can sell and many older people, who often live in large houses, may have repaid their mortgages. I have 6 bed roomed house and only 4 years mortgage to repay. Many of our friends are in a similar position.

I think what you are doing is quite smart and I am quite envious you have the option. I bought my 2 bed London flat last year and one big reason I bought it instead of waiting for prices to drop even further was because I couldn't really stay with family for much longer.

Prices would definitely fall. But whether it's for large houses, I have no idea. On one hand, richer people may be more.secure. but on the other hand, many rich people tend to have their own businesses and may feel compelled to sell their house to save their business ( this happened to my dad during Asian financial crisis in Singapore. He bought a house at 60% off because the owner, an Indonesian businessman was on the verge of bankruptcy and needed to save his business). An average person's most valuable asset is his house and therefore he would fight tooth and nail to keep it. However for a wealthy person, it may be one of many assets.

However if you wait, you would have to be very patient and ideally have a lot of cash.

Not sure but I would think that the bigger houses are more likely to be owned by older families who have more liquid assets and will stay where they are.

I think that it is possible that some older people, living in family homes but feeling very isolated at the moment, may (once the crisis is over) look at moving nearer family, into retirement accommodation etc. so as to be better prepared for their future needs.
So there might be a bit of shifting around as some people downsize and others upsize. Whether it will actually have an impact on property prices, I don't know.

The biggest gamble is how long you could be stuck with your parents so think about how that impacts all of you if it ends IPM being two years, which could easily happen IMHO.

I agree with pp I think house prices all round will drop which means only those that have to sell or have large amounts of equity and can take the hit the hit will sell.

My thoughts are you will get a few larger houses on the market from those who have over extended themselves and due to all this are going to end up having to sell! But they will be popular and go fast. All those who are ready to downsize or move for other reason will sit tight until things pick up.

It's a gamble you might be lucky you might end up in a situation where you are stuck with your parents for a long time.

I don't think there is a right or wrong answer but whatever you do go into it with your eyes open!

IPM?

That should say “up”!

Currently living in a one bedroom flat in London with a baby who is now walking and we were hoping to move back to Hampshire.

If you can get a buyer, sell up.

I don't think it's a shoo-in that there will be loads of bigger properties in Hampshire on the market. However, I do think it is a reasonable assumption that staying in a 1-bed flat indefinitely with a small child is not a great plan, particularly if you want to have any more children, and properties will always become available: death & downsizing won't go away. Bankruptcy and financial distress will rise in a recession, as distasteful as that is. Even if people rent their large family homes instead of selling, you can move out and rent.

I wouldn't want to hang around selling in your positions, honestly. (As former London dweller and 1-bed owner with 2x DC).

I would imagine larger house means a family lives there, so don't see why that profile would be more likely to move than any other, in fact the opposite.
I think once lock down ends there will be pent up demand so don't think there will be a major drop in prices, but fewer sales until the market catches up.

In past recessions it is the bottom end of the market where more properties come up for sale. People in large houses tend to have more options to extend their mortgage, take payment holidays or borrow money from family.

have you looked at what kind of mortgage and ltv you can get now? A lot of lenders have pulled all their products with LTVs above 60% which may limit your options

Gerald Eve, the property company issued a report in the last week or so predicting the impact of Covid. They said that initially the market would stay buoyant but might fall after 1-2 years.

I would think quite a few people who are in financial trouble will need to be selling up to downsize on mortgages, plus quite a few older victims of covid may have properties to sell.

I thought JRM expected a tidy sum could be made off the back of Covid? Presumably by buying up all the property that none of the middle classes can afford to buy any longer and renting it back to them? (I may have dreamt that...)

My parents still live in our large family home & were just about to downsize when Covid hit. Unfortunately my sister has now lost her job & my brother’s business has tanked so they’re both moving back in with my folks until they get back on their feet financially - which will probably take a while due to the nature of their industries - so my parents plan to downsize is on hold indefinitely. I think a lot of people might find themselves in the same situation as my siblings & will be “boomeranging” back to their family which means those large homes won’t come onto the market.

Bigger houses are more likely to be bought by cash buyers or those that don’t require much of a mortgage, so will be as unaffected by this financial crisis as the last one. It’s the smaller homes 3 bed or smaller which may go up for sale at rock bottom prices.

I think a lot of people who have been doing short term rentals will sell, because longer term rentals are not a lucrative as short terms have been prior to that market drying up entirely because of Covid 19.

Oh the penny just dropped

OP means Covid deaths will put large houses on the market and sellers will be in a hurry.

Possible.