to not understand what Sue Perkins is referring to?

[avrilpoissons]

"I see Britain’s third best eugenicist has been using the crayons again...."

WTF is she on about? It's obviously something super intelligent but it's beyond me.

but without people working, the NHS can't exist anyway.

The NHS are well aware of where their funding comes from.

What’s been their totally consistent message to people through this crisis? Stay at home.

Because they know that the economy is fucked until we get this under control.

It’s a totally different disease than the flu, it is much more infectious than the flu and it has a higher death rate (as far as we can tell from the info we have).

I feel like we keep going back and forth about this.

The seasonal flu death rate is something like .1%.

I don't think that it's remotely outside of the realm of possibility that this will wind up with a death rate of something like two or three times the seasonal flu.

How is it possible that Nial Ferguson, a man who has blown this so out of proportion that his career is very likely on the line, i.e. his interests lie in inflating the death rate, would suggest that 2 million British people have covid19 when there have been something like 2,000 deaths?

No, the country is in crisis.

The country is in crisis because they have been fed a hysterical, uncontextualised daily death toll and its in lockdown. The corona related deaths are imperceptible to the public. The average British person does not know a person who has died from Corona and when this is over, the same will be true.

The country is in crisis because they have been fed a hysterical, uncontextualised daily death toll and its in lockdown.

No, the country is in crisis in the situation I describe because the NHS is overwhelmed to the point of non functioning.

I don't think that it's remotely outside of the realm of possibility that this will wind up with a death rate of something like two or three times the seasonal flu

It may. We have no clue now.

The point is that it’s an entirely different disease to flu and we know very little about how it operates. Flu is well understood and known. Talking about them in the same sentence makes no sense.

No, the country is in crisis in the situation I describe because the NHS is overwhelmed to the point of non functioning.

Haven't we been told this for ten years?

And haven't we more specifically been told that the NHS is 'bracing for' the Coronavirus for something like two weeks now?

Which news reports are you referring to, specifically?

Hi all. Can we please stop calling each other 'fuckwits' - it's a personal attack and will result in your whole post being removed for breaking guidelines. We've removed a few instances from this thread and will start waving the ban hammer if it continues.
Please try to post civilly.
Peace and love.
MNHQ

It looks like the place to compare to is Sweden

Who aren't doing much in this crisis

www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8173691/Is-softly-softly-Sweden-heading-catastrophe.html

And haven't we more specifically been told that the NHS is 'bracing for' the Coronavirus for something like two weeks now

What would bracing look like for you?

If we had just isolated vulnerable people away, what do you think would have happened - the best case and the reasonable worst case?

Which news reports are you referring to, specifically?

Huh? None.

I’m saying the following ...

We let the disease run its course and we take the hit on deaths (mostly older/vulnerable yes) and healthcare workers (hugely problematic).

The result would be a totally overrun and eventually non functioning health service. Bodies piling up.

In that situation, economic activity just does not go on as normal. Anyone who thinks it would is a fantasist.

It’s impossible to isolate vulnerable people anyway. They’re exactly the ones who need care. What do we do about nursing homes, healthcare appointments?

How do you propose to shield the vulnerable groups until a vaccine is available, then? 18 months from now.

The answer, obviously, is that we cannot shield them 100% for 18 months, and there will be some balance between the vulnerable and the rest.

How much of your life, exactly, are you willing to forfeit to protect them?

Toby Young is right to put his head above the parapet and suggest that at some point, we must return to normalcy. The lack of debate is madness.

MarginalGain - there is no lack of debate about when we can return to normalcy, though . It’s just that comparing this virus to the flu is no way to persuade anyone to return to normalcy, what with it not being the flu and nobody knowing enough about it, yet.

I haven't read the whole thread but quite a bit of it. I have read the whole Toby Young article. He's not a man I like but I found it interesting, and like others, defend his right to give his view.
To me the most significant fact he states is that organisations do ( and in my view need to) put a price on life. He mentions NICE but it happens in all sorts of ways such as when considering safety measures on the railway and roads for example.
We all know too that poverty kills. Does anyone disagree with that? One of the things I've found striking in the argument over approach to Coronavirus ( not on here particularly, in real life) is that those who normally shout the loudest about economic poverty shortening life seem to be the same people who came out with the , in my view very trite " The government is prioritising the economy over lives" argument in the early days of this. The economy is lives.
I don't know enough to accept or reject TY's figures. What I do believe is that how many lives we save and at what cost is something that needs to be considered. The massive problem of course is that coronavirus is relatively unknown which makes this a very hard judgement to make. Many more will die in the long run if the economy falls into massive rescission and even more will die if there is serious social disorder. I think it is fear of the latter which will ultimately determine government policy.

at some point, we must return to normalcy.

I don’t think anyone disagrees with that.

MarginalGain - there is no lack of debate about when we can return to normalcy, though

Is this entire thread not devoting to crucifying Young for... suggesting a return to normalcy?

The economy is lives

Yes. And normally functioning lives are also the economy. It’s symbiotic.

You don’t go out picking kitchen tiles when you can’t get someone to bury your grandmother. Or when you know you won’t be treated by a collapsing health service.

Many more will die in the long run if the economy falls into massive rescission and even more will die if there is serious social disorder

This will all happen regardless. We can’t avoid recession here. And think of the threat to public order as the health service buckles.

It’s just that comparing this virus to the flu is no way to persuade anyone to return to normalcy, what with it not being the flu and nobody knowing enough about it, yet.

This is something I've seen a lot of on MN. Someone compares the public policy related to seasonal influenza, an infectious respiratory virus, to covid19, an infectious respiratory virus (albeit a novel one) and people rush in to point out that they're entirely different.

I know that. My basis of comparison stands, which was about their respective death rates.

You don’t go out picking kitchen tiles when you can’t get someone to bury your grandmother. Or when you know you won’t be treated by a collapsing health service.

This is just rhetoric.

As I said before, the average British person does not even know someone who has died of coronavirus today (much less have responsibility for burying them), and that will still be true when this is over.

The health service has been 'collapsing' for ten years. How have we all coped?

I won't name change. Much as I dislike TY he has a point. There are many equally dispassionate, unpalateable points that could, and should, be considered when the government makes its policies.

NICE does this all the time, various health experts have stood at that podium and told us hard, unpalateable clinical decisions will be made, often, as they usually have to.

It's a harsh reality. We are living in increasngly harsh times. I guess JY is, as usual, opting to be hung for a sheep as a lamb.

This is just rhetoric.

No it isn’t

As I said before, the average British person does not even know someone who has died of coronavirus today (much less have responsibility for burying them), and that will still be true when this is over

Not if we get to half a million deaths it won’t be (and how many additional deaths will there be if we run out of hc workers and equipment to treat them?)

The health service has been 'collapsing' for ten years.

Yes. This is threatening to finish it. It’s totally overwhelmed much better functioning health systems like Italy’s.

MarginalGain has, again, said it all for me.

A voice of reason and sanity in a sea of hysteria and bonkerosity.

Hi Cantata.

Not if we get to half a million deaths it won’t be (and how many additional deaths will there be if we run out of hc workers and equipment to treat them?)

Laurie, WHAT ON EARTH ARE YOU READING?

I'm off for my daily unit of permitted exercise, goodbye all.

#metoo Marginal.

I can see both both sides. Although it's true that we now live in a global society and we need to take on the accepted measures of who we consider our closest allies.

It will be interesting to see what this does to the population of Belarus. They aren't reporting deaths, only one, but they are reporting that a lot of medical care has been needed for recovery. Health wise they are probably similar to your average Brit. I'd say Swedish people are a bit healthier.

Very few of us are activists about arms sales, the taking up of arable land/water to grow cattle feed, or what we pay for goods from the undeveloped world etc etc, so subconsciously we are happy for people to be dispensable for our lifestyles.

On a global scale and because we don't know the rate of infection, possibility of mutation etc we had to react in the way that we did.

What does 'life back to normal' look like? I doubt the Queen would be out and about. Royal Weddings going on. The premier footballers and their WAGS are getting over 34, so in the possible at risk category. Will Parliament open up, or the house of Lords? Will we see Churches open?

Or is it just the plebs back at work?

The flu is not the only other respiratory viral infection in existence, MarginalGain, so I still don’t see the point in harking on about it when dealing with a new infection that has a closer genetic relationship to MERS and SARS 1 than influenza, anyway? Why suggest basing decisions on when to return to normalcy by comparing respective death rates of a virus you know a lot about with a virus you know very little about and therefore have no accurate concept of actual death rates and long-term health harms for at the moment, in any event? How does that help anyone return to “normalcy”? Wouldn’t it be better to know and understand more, first? Which means we are stuck in the current situation for the time being however much we hate it.